ATL: IKE Discussion

[Nederlander]

The company I work for (a major oil company) has its own weather team. We're not going to rely on the weatherbabes on the Weather Channel to base decisions costing millions of dollars on.

We closed the Houston office effective tonight. Landfall from our team at 4 pm CDT predicted landfall in Matagorda Bay, but allowed that it might shift to Freeport.

Either way, Houston gets this bigtime. Galveston gets the surge, and if the models continue shifting east, it's 1900 all over again.

Not quite "1900 all over again" ... Galveston has a 17 foot tall seawall that is 16 feet thick at its base, which was built as a result of the 1900 storm

[MBryant]

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

After a little thought about the Tsunamis, I edited the part about salt water deaths.

[rtd2]

Definitely expect recon to find an increase in winds soon.

sure can see that weak or dry spot just above eyewall on that shot

[pablolopez26]

according to my source, that tune is about to change pretty soon here. a very big conference call going on right now.

I can imagine that call involves the NHC, Governor, and State Judge, and who knows who else.

What do you think the end result will be Survived?

[KWT]

Sadly some of the models, esp the ECM really would give Texas a pretty historic hurricane. Still early in the day of course but with such a large hurricane even a borderline 2/3 is going to relaly whack places way to the NE of the center with hurricane force winds and so even if the track stays close to where it is now Houston will get some pretty hefty winds I'd think...

ike's starting to get a bit of a better structure once again...

[CrazyC83]

Definitely expect recon to find an increase in winds soon.

As soon as they get into the NE quad outer band, where the Cat 2 winds were at last pass (they haven't been there in over 2 hours).

[cycloneye]

Even if Ike stays as it is now at 100 mph cat 2,this will be a hurricane to remember for tens of thousands of people even millons that will be affected one way or another,in a vast area.

[rtd2]

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

After a little thought about the Tsunamis, I edited the part about salt water deaths.

I dont see anything wrong or a GAMBLE... of course we are living AK (After katrina ) and no one wants that nightmare scenerio again!! if a person feels they arent safe and should leave then leave! dont wait on the govt.

[Cape Verde]

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

"Wow thats is a very level headed statement.....no hype whatsoever!"

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme. Most drowning deaths have NOTHING to do with salt water.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

Well, it's still mostly a free country, and if I want to leave, that's my business. Maybe I don't want to live in a town with no power in sweltering heat. I don't need Emmett's permission to back out of my driveway.

[Texas Snowman]

Not sure if any of you saw the post I made a page back or so in which I quoted Air Force Met on the Ike Model thread.

He seemed to indicate that NHC wanted to move the track to the east on last advisory, but didn't want to do so just yet.

He also said they were hinting at a landfall location that would give Houston its worst wack since Carla.

Wonder if that is in the Freeport area? I would think - and that's purely speculation on my part - that Air Force Met would be privy to some good information that the rest of us are not.

[Cape Verde]

Not quite "1900 all over again" ... Galveston has a 17 foot tall seawall that is 16 feet thick at its base, which was built as a result of the 1900 storm

Yeah, some of Galveston. There's lots of development unprotected by a seawall.

[rtd2]

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

"Wow thats is a very level headed statement.....no hype whatsoever!"

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme. Most drowning deaths have NOTHING to do with salt water.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

Well, it's still mostly a free country, and if I want to leave, that's my business. Maybe I don't want to live in a town with no power in sweltering heat. I don't need Emmett's permission to back out of my driveway.

bingo

[Texas Snowman]

I've got to be honest about Galveston's seawall. After having been to G-Island the past two summers with my wife and kids, I'm not sure that sea wall is still 17 feet in all places.

Seems a little bit lower to me - could it have settled over a century - or was my height judgment just off that much?

[Nexus]

Ike now entering a very hospitable environment, at least OHC wise.

Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track (18z):

[Myersgirl]

There is a beautifully written book about the 1900's hurricane by by Eric Larson "Issac's Storm" A must read non-fiction for those Texas posters for sure, this Florida girl loved it also

[pablolopez26]

I've got to be honest about Galveston's seawall. After having been to G-Island the past two summers with my wife and kids, I'm not sure that sea wall is still 17 feet in all places.

Seems a little bit lower to me - could it have settled over a century - or was my height judgment just off that much?

Nope your right, im not sure if that seawall does reach 17 feet in some places. But hey a seawall is better than no wall.

[opera ghost]

Emmett stressed that no one should leave a home unless there is the danger of having storm surge enter it.

"Most people in Harris County shouldn't evacuate in any case," he said. "Unless you are in danger of water coming into your house, and I mean storm surge, not rainfall, you need to stay put."

"Wow thats is a very level headed statement.....no hype whatsoever!"

Emmett appears to be comfortable gambling with people's lives. If you're in a flood prone area, does it really matter that you drown from freshwater flooding rather than saltwater flooding? He takes a good point to the silly extreme. Most drowning deaths have NOTHING to do with salt water.

He should have said, "If your house hasn't flooded in the last 20 years and you're not in danger from falling trees and are in reasonably good health, evacuation isn't necessary."

Well, it's still mostly a free country, and if I want to leave, that's my business. Maybe I don't want to live in a town with no power in sweltering heat. I don't need Emmett's permission to back out of my driveway.

The idea is to limit traffic so that people in truly vulnerable places can get out. Rita was a disaster of an evacuation- they can't afford to have people gridlocked on the freeways fleeing the surge because people like me (I ran from Rita although I wasn't flood prone and was in a safe house because I didn't want to deal with the discomfort) decided to leave in massive numbers.

There's not enough time to clear the freeways if millions of shadow evacuees flee- the track has just been too uncertain. So I'm staying put. If worst case occurs and we're out of power long term, we'll see about heading out of town after the storm until the city is put back to rights. We'll be huddled down at home though. I've got a safe room and supplies. We're young and healthy we'll survive roughing it out.

[MBryant]

I've got to be honest about Galveston's seawall. After having been to G-Island the past two summers with my wife and kids, I'm not sure that sea wall is still 17 feet in all places.

Seems a little bit lower to me - could it have settled over a century - or was my height judgment just off that much?

While settling is certainly possible, you may have underestimated the height due to the portion of the seawall below the sand and rocks. Five feet of sand will do that.

[inda_iwall]

There is a beautifully written book about the 1900's hurricane by by Eric Larson "Issac's Storm" A must read non-fiction for those Texas posters for sure, this Florida girl loved it also

Great book, I have been thinking about that the whole time watching this thing.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...

.AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


TXZ200-213-214-235>238-112230-
/O.CAN.KHGX.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.HU.A.1009.080910T2228Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
528 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE USUAL 36 HOUR LEAD TIME. THIS HAS BEEN DONE TO GIVE
PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS MORE TIME TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY WITH
WINDS PEAKING NEAR 130 MPH CLOSE TO THE EYE OF THE STORM. THE
STORM WILL LIKELY BE A VERY LARGE STORM WITH A WIND FIELD OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL FORCE WINDS THAT COULD BLANKET A LARGE SWATH OF
THE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF AND AT LANDFALL. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

ADDITIONAL EVACUATIONS MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 630 PM...STAY TUNED.

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ZIP ZONE 77541. A SPECIAL
NEEDS EVACUATION ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. RESIDENTS
IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THOSE REQUIRING TRANSPORTATION FROM
BRAZORIA COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY MUST RUSH THEIR PREPARATIONS TO
COMPLETION.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION BEGAN THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...THE WEST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND INCLUDING JAMAICA
BEACH...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...BAYOU VISTA...OMEGA BAY...TIKI
ISLAND...DICKINSON...KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES. CITIZENS MAY
ALSO CONSIDER EVACUATING IF THEY LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING OR IN MOBILE HOMES. IF YOU DECIDE TO EVACUATE...PLEASE
REMEMBER TO PACK YOUR DISASTER KIT AND IMPORTANT PAPERS.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY WILL LIKELY CEASE OPERATIONS AT 11 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN INITIATED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE AND
WORK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 35. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF PALACIOS...ASHBY-BUCKEYE...EL MATON...COLLEGEPORT...
MATAGORDA...WADSWORTH...SARGENT...CEDAR LANE...CHINQUAPIN...TRES
PALACIOS OAKS...AND TIDEWATER OAKS. BLESSING IS ALSO INCLUDED IN
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION EVEN THOUGH IT IS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 35.
THE MANDATORY EVACUATION DOES NOT INCLUDE BAY CITY OR VAN VLECK.

IT IS RECOMMENDED YOU EVACUATE WITH YOUR PETS. BE SURE TO TAKE A
PET CARRIER...LEASH...VACCINATION RECORDS...AND FOOD FOR YOUR PET.
IF YOU EVACUATE TO A SHELTER...YOUR PETS WILL BE BOARDED AT A
SEPARATE FACILITY.

IF YOU HAVE NO MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION OR CANNOT FIND ANYONE TO
HELP YOU EVACUATE AND NEED ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN CONTACT
979-245-3056 OR 979-244-5318.

RESIDENTS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY WHO NEED SHELTER CAN EVACUATE TO THE
SHELTER HUB IN AUSTIN. SIGNS IN AUSTIN WILL DIRECT EVACUEES TO
OPEN SHELTERS.


...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE FOLLOWING TIDE LEVELS ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
AND FORECAST INTENSITY FOR HURRICANE IKE. THE LEVELS ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. IF THE
TRACK SHIFTS EASTWARD...THEN THESE LEVELS MAY BE INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY FOR THE GALVESTON BAY REGION.

TIDE LEVELS WILL EXCEED 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER ALONG
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TIDE
LEVELS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:
SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY - 15 TO 22 FEET
COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO SAN LUIS PASS - 10 TO 14 FEET
COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES AND THE
SHORES OF GALVESTON BAY - 8 TO 12 FEET

...WINDS...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BY 2 PM ON FRIDAY WINDS OF 40 TO 60
MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
INLAND...WINDS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE NEARING
25 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED MAKING ELEVATED ROADWAYS POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 8 PM FRIDAY. NEAR THE EYEWALL WHICH IS FORECAST TO
COME ONSHORE MATAGORDA COUNTY SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 110
MPH WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE
POTENTIALLY FATAL.

IN CLOSE TO THE EYE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE AND ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION BEING DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO
MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL.

ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS
AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE
LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR
TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE
BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES.

NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER
POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL
POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS
FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THOUSANDS OF TREES BEING SEVERELY
DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED
TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.
UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED.
MOST NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE WIPED OUT. LIVESTOCK LEFT
OUTSIDE WILL BE INJURED...SOME CRITICALLY. A FEW LIVESTOCK DEATHS
ARE LIKELY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

AS THE STORM NEARS THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY. REMEMBER THE INNERMOST ROOM WITH
THE GREATEST NUMBER OF WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE WINDS WILL
PROVIDE YOU WITH SOME SHELTER. DO NOT GO NEAR WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 11 PM.

$$