ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Scorpion]

I apologize if this is inappropriate, but I believe the NHC should set the upcoming landfall intensity at ~80 kt. Not only is it supported by data, but it is also important to assume that some members of the general public may believe they experienced a stronger TC if the Cat 2 status is maintained for the landfall intensity. Most people do not adhere to these unnamed "members", but there are always people who experience the outer fringes of a TC and believe that they experience stronger winds than reality. They may take advantage of Lixion Avila's rationally conservative nature and say, "I went through a Cat 2 and it wasn't so bad!"

I can see some "dangers" here...

I agree. They will probably adjust it for best track.

[vbhoutex]

Watching coverage from SPI here in Houston on Channel 11. They registered a wind gust to 115mph with sustained at 90 mph on their anemometer in the last few minutes. They have had to start using phones to report since the wind was trying to tear the satellite dish off their truck. I don't know how well calibrated that anemometer is, but my guess is it is since this is the station Dr. Neil Frank is still consulting for even though he has retired.

[Squarethecircle]

I think that they could probably support either 85 knots or 80 knots (mostly the latter) with the data they have, mostly depending on whether or not they extrapolate with it. But the problem would be, would they want to forecast 80 knots when it just might be 85?

[HarlequinBoy]

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH-CENTRAL SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TAFT...MOVING WEST AT 34 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TAFT BY 1230 PM CDT...
SINTON BY 1240 PM CDT...

[HarlequinBoy]

1220 PM HURRICANE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 26.08N 97.18W
07/23/2008 CAMERON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SHIP CAPTAIN HAD ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 100 MPH.

[vbhoutex]

I apologize if this is inappropriate, but I believe the NHC should set the upcoming landfall intensity at ~80 kt. Not only is it supported by data, but it is also important to assume that some members of the general public may believe they experienced a stronger TC if the Cat 2 status is maintained for the landfall intensity. Most people do not adhere to these unnamed "members", but there are always people who experience the outer fringes of a TC and believe that they experience stronger winds than reality. They may take advantage of Lixion Avila's rationally conservative nature and say, "I went through a Cat 2 and it wasn't so bad!"

I can see some "dangers" here...

I agree. They will probably adjust it for best track.

The problem with what you are saying is that they have to report it as the highest that was found/obtained at landfall, not what is best for the public to see so they will realize they didn't get the worst part of a storm. We here-weather weenies all!!!-understand the vagaries of a tropical cyclone compared to the general public and we are not tied down by parameters that make NHC report for the general good of the overall populace vs explaining to them that only a few places actually experienced the highest winds.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dolly seems to be leaving behind another "tail" in the middle of the GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ready or not here she comes....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... o&loop=yes

30 mins or so...

[littlevince]

A better link (full screen) to Fox video stream:

http://foxnews-stream4.wm.llnwd.net/foxnews_stream4

[HarlequinBoy]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS
SOUTH CENTRAL REFUGIO COUNTY IN SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST SOUTH
OF NEAR HOLIDAY BEACH...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ROCKPORT...MOVING WEST AT 32 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROCKPORT...FULTON BY 1210 PM CDT...
BAYSIDE BY 1230 PM CDT...

[Tireman4]

A better link (full screen) to Fox video stream:

http://foxnews-stream4.wm.llnwd.net/foxnews_stream4

Mine is purple. The screen is purple. LOL

[vbhoutex]

Watching coverage from SPI here in Houston on Channel 11. They registered a wind gust to 115mph with sustained at 90 mph on their anemometer in the last few minutes. They have had to start using phones to report since the wind was trying to tear the satellite dish off their truck. I don't know how well calibrated that anemometer is, but my guess is it is since this is the station Dr. Neil Frank is still consulting for even though he has retired.

Edit to add further reports.

They are reporting many hotels and condos with numerous windows blown out and many power poles down or snapped in half.

[TexWx]

Finally got a text message from my cousin in Port Isabel.
They are completely frightened...

[dizzyfish]

I heard Cantore a while ago saying that a 20 x 20 section of the roof on the hotel where he is staying was blown off. Also he saw a palm tree "peeled".

[lester]

-lester

[RL3AO]

Just a few miles until landfall.

[kurtpage]

I do know that my Father-In-Law leaves late this evening / early tomorrow morning for clean-up. He is the foreman of 10 or so tree trimming crews that services AEP in most of eastern texas. I believe that AEP (POwer Company) is in this area as well...

[ncweatherwizard]

Finally got a text message from my cousin in Port Isabel.
They are completely frightened...

Stay inside and hang in there!

[Tireman4]

I cannot get ahold of my friend in Raymondville. Her text is on, but no response.


Just did. Said the wind and rain is really bad right now.

[KWT]

Wow lester88, that SW eyewall is really intense right now some pretty explosive convection at the moment.