ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HollynLA]

We're looking at a major hurricane to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana, very near Katrina ravaged areas, and you don't see what the hype is about?


OK then.

[ColdFusion]

I was referring to the lack of rainbands on the entire southern half of the storm. But you're right, annular hurricanes tend to have a larger than average eye size. So perhaps this is just a shear effect. Or perhaps the eye size will grow.

The lack of feeder bands on the South is curious, it actually makes the storm look much less menacing, although I'm sure it is still packing quite a punch. Wonder if this structure will change.

[Derek Ortt]

Last few frames also look like Gustav is trending toward annular... at least the southern half. However, maybe just an illusion of shear reducing southern outflow?

microwave still shows rainbands.

I'd be surprised if this becomes annular. According to Knaff (2003), annular hurricanes usually occur over cool water

[USTropics]

Tensions are high, let's get back on topic before someone breaks a keyboard in frustration. Then you would be stuck watching TWC updates

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breakin ... 66472.html

death toll in haiti continues to rise. Now up to 76 dead in Haiti alone

[Hurricane Cheese]

Really curious to hear what the pro mets think about the current structure of this storm? Looks to be slowly but steadily becoming more organized. Any predictions for what type of intesity would could be looking at by this afternoon?

[Derek Ortt]

it looks to remaining steady.

this shear pattern would tend to argue for little change in intensity. Based upon latest recon, winds look to be about 105KT. Cat 3 at landfall, very similar to Katrina seems like the best bet at this time.

[evalea]

Just got back from a run to fill the 5 day ice chests before everyone else descended on the ice makers at the car wash. All is quiet in my neck of the woods. Looks like I won't be evac'ing to a friends after all, as they are closer to the predicted path and hubby due to a dramatically fortuitous lack of decent engineering gets to stay in Lafayette for the hurricane and not be evac'd to Alabama. So I have someone to squeeze when it gets scary.
I'm hoping to stay online as long as possible and post updates. I have dsl, and in case we lose that I have mobile broadband as well. I'm told Verizon is the FEMA emergency network and all their towers have generator backup with 7 days of fuel. I'm just way too much of a geek to have to go without...

I'm really split about the path, if it stays current its better for us in S Lafayette parish. But it really sucks for NO, and if it landfalls as per the latest models, it could really damage the loop at Fourchon and Lord only knows what that will do to gas prices. If it swings east, then it'll suck to be us. Whatever happens, though we are prepared.

[SkeetoBite]

Derek,

Before things get crazy here again and my comments get lost...

I just wanted to express my gratitude for all the extra work you do on these forums to keep literally thousands of folks informed. It is greatly appreciated. I know people can drive you nuts sometimes , but you're actually pretty patient and a good teacher.

Jonathon-

[Hurricane Cheese]

it looks to remaining steady.

this shear pattern would tend to argue for little change in intensity. Based upon latest recon, winds look to be about 105KT. Cat 3 at landfall, very similar to Katrina seems like the best bet at this time.

Agree with you Derek, and I must say I think one thing getting lost is the fact that New Orleans will likely be in the right front quadrant of Gustav, whereas with Katrina they were on the weaker western side.

If that is the case, the $64,000 question is how would the damage to the city compare to Katrina's? Something I'm too gun-shy to speculate on right now, but would be very curious to hear other people's opinions.

[Sanibel]

Gus is about 225 miles SW of us by eye. The bushes are shaking here more than when I went to bed. 20mph gusts maybe.

I see Cuba tripped up Gus a little. Maybe it let the shear get the upper hand for now.

If I am seeing the eye slot correctly this is slightly east of trop points again. If my eyes are right and this maintains the current parallel track to NHC track it should come closer to New Orleans than what the NHC track shows. Much closer. Guess my straight edge that everyone was ignoring last night was right.

I guess they are expecting a boost from the loop current hot spot from that intensity prediction. This is not the shape I expected when I went to bed.

[dwg71]

give it about 12 hours, i think its going to make a comeback to cat 4 status.

[AZRainman]

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

[Sanibel]

Took a second look at the eye and would say it should come closer to New Orleans by the amount it is currently east of trop points. Maybe 15 miles. So not really "much" closer. I believe this would make it go closer to Baton Rouge.

[Nimbus]

Unless Gustav loses some forward speed we are getting close to 30 hours before landfall.

Not looking good for LA obviously but where exactly the eyewall will track and what the intensity will be at landfall are still unknowns.

The ULL currently NW of Gustav looks fairly weak but has been providing some shear as Derek noted.

I'm wondering how much that ULL will shear, ventilate or even steer Gustav as the ULL drifts southwest?

Currently Gustavs CDO is displaced a little but I expect him to become vertically stacked again by this evening. NO is better prepared this time and more people are likely to heed evacuation warnings, but it still looks bad.

[Sanibel]

TWC said contra-flow started 2 hours ago in Louisiana. I suppose if the High turns it more NW at landfall it would be Lafayette more than Baton Rogue.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[deltadog03]

I am about to make my final landfall map here in a bit, but current thinking on my end is that landfall should be in about 24-26 hours now. I really do not see anything slowing this down too much. There is too much momentum with him moving right now, and nothing has convinced me that he will grind to nearly a halt as some models have shown. As for strength, if its gonna get back to cat 4 it better do it now. The high TCHP is under him now and its a steady decline after that to the coast. The call from me will be 110kt at landfall...Map coming.

[jlauderdal]

gus bands on the way

[Sanibel]

Getting on the edge of Key West long range radar now. Radar shows some eye elongation meaning the east appearance of the eye could be a slightly sheared reflection and the surface eye is closer to NHC track.

Rain band here from Gus.

Should take a while to translate winds from hot spot as dwg71 said.

Back to bed.

[otowntiger]

Kudos to "Hyperstorm"! As I was going to bed last night he was saying that the storm had weakened and conditions did not look favorable for re-strengthening. He got some flack, but he also predicted it'd be down to cat 3 with pressure in the 960's. Darn close. I may have to agree with him. I don't see this storm picking up any more intensity and quite possible losing some more before landfall. N.O. and the coast will definitely get a blow, but I think its not going to be as bad as it could have been. People still need to be prepared for any possible scenario however.