ATL: IKE Discussion

[Brent]

946 extrap!!!!!!!!! Down 12 mb in about 3 hours.

[bob rulz]

"The idea is to limit traffic so that people in truly vulnerable places can get out. Rita was a disaster of an evacuation- they can't afford to have people gridlocked on the freeways fleeing the surge because people like me (I ran from Rita although I wasn't flood prone and was in a safe house because I didn't want to deal with the discomfort) decided to leave in massive numbers.

There's not enough time to clear the freeways if millions of shadow evacuees flee- the track has just been too uncertain. So I'm staying put. If worst case occurs and we're out of power long term, we'll see about heading out of town after the storm until the city is put back to rights. We'll be huddled down at home though. I've got a safe room and supplies. We're young and healthy we'll survive roughing it out."

That is a much better way of stating it. My problem was that he ignored the other vulnerabilities people face because of his focus on the surge vulnerability.

Rita showed that wind alone can be devastating. Allison showed fresh water flooding alone can be devastating. Beulah showed tornadoes alone can be devastating. Alecia showed loss of power alone can be devastating. Galveston 1900 showed surge alone could be devastating. I just hope people are astute enough to decide on their own based on their particular vulnerabilities.

And every storm shows that falling trees can be deadly. That might just be the most underestimated threat.

[tolakram]

Buoy to watch:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml


42001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[93superstorm]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

[AL Chili Pepper]

To anyone wondering whether they should leave or not, just remember that emergency response most probably will not be able to help if conditions reach a certain level. You'll be on your own. Listening to the 911 calls during Ivan - especially the one with the woman with water up to her chest - well...

[Weatherfreak14]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

[Sanibel]

There's AZRainMan's prediction of a second RI (possibly) right on time.

[Cape Verde]

"The idea is to limit traffic so that people in truly vulnerable places can get out. Rita was a disaster of an evacuation- they can't afford to have people gridlocked on the freeways fleeing the surge because people like me (I ran from Rita although I wasn't flood prone and was in a safe house because I didn't want to deal with the discomfort) decided to leave in massive numbers.

There's not enough time to clear the freeways if millions of shadow evacuees flee- the track has just been too uncertain. So I'm staying put. If worst case occurs and we're out of power long term, we'll see about heading out of town after the storm until the city is put back to rights. We'll be huddled down at home though. I've got a safe room and supplies. We're young and healthy we'll survive roughing it out."

That is a much better way of stating it. My problem was that he ignored the other vulnerabilities people face because of his focus on the surge vulnerability.

Rita showed that wind alone can be devastating. Allison showed fresh water flooding alone can be devastating. Beulah showed tornadoes alone can be devastating. Alecia showed loss of power alone can be devastating. Galveston 1900 showed surge alone could be devastating. I just hope people are astute enough to decide on their own based on their particular vulnerabilities.

I understand the problem, and I remember how scared I was when Rita was projected on the Wednesday night forecast to come up Matagorda Bay as a Cat 5. I couldn't leave because my wife was a "critical employee" at a nearby hospital.

Obviously, it mostly missed me and I was in my subdivision all to myself.

My point is that we are not government property and we can make our own decisions. For those who think the government is always correct and won't make decisions for themselves, well, I pity them. They're the ones who looked up to Ray Nagin for guidance for Katrina.

I'll do whatever I damn well please, based on the information that I personally evaluate. I plan on staying unless Ike suddenly spikes to Cat 5, simply because I have nowhere to go. There's not a motel/hotel room to be found south of Oklahoma. It's not feasible to board up my house because it's a large two-story structure with windows that are mostly not rectangular. I probably run a much bigger risk of falling off a ladder and breaking my neck than having a projectile come through one and doing the same thing.

But if I think now is a good time to take a vacation to Carlsbad, New Mexico, I don't need or want the government's permission.

[tolakram]

NRL has some impressive Google Earth overlays. In the left column, click the orange "KML" image to view them. Here is a direct link for Ike's:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... L.main.kml

Excellent, and their track with small markers is perfect. I think I'll stop manually drawing mine and use this one.

[CrazyC83]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

At that point, the pressure will likely be in the 920s or lower.

[Bunkertor]

http://www.cnn.com/

[gboudx]

Update. Jeff. Here.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1822893#p1822893

[Weatherfreak14]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

At that point, the pressure will likely be in the 920s or lower.

If that happens we may have a Cat 5 on our hands...... Not a prediction...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

Appears to be going through a RIC...I expect the winds to catch up, so a cat3 by 5am est...Followed with a cat4 by 11am est.

[tolakram]

[CrazyC83]

At that point, the pressure will likely be in the 920s or lower.

If that happens we may have a Cat 5 on our hands...... Not a prediction...

With the current structure and pressure gradient, the pressure would need to drop to around 910 for us to have a Cat 5...

[BlueIce]

http://www.cnn.com/

And there off to the races.... when does 24/7 coverage begin?

[wxman57]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

Actually, it may take a while for Ike's winds to come around. As long as it has that relatively stable ring of high winds rotating inside a much larger wind maximum it's going to be hard for the winds to increase. That inner core needs to get disrupted for the outer ring to take over and contract.

[dwg71]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

Actually, it may take a while for Ike's winds to come around. As long as it has that relatively stable ring of high winds rotating inside a much larger wind maximum it's going to be hard for the winds to increase. That inner core needs to get disrupted for the outer ring to take over and contract.

So its basically keeping itself intact??

Is is a given that outer ring will contract and take over?

[Weatherfreak14]

last time it was 949mb, it was a category 4 with 135mph winds. Crazy its 946mb and still a cat 2 winds.

It will catch up soon, its definatly strating to get orhanized, i think we will wake up to maybe a strong Cat 3 by morning. Not likely but i wouldnt be suprised.

Actually, it may take a while for Ike's winds to come around. As long as it has that relatively stable ring of high winds rotating inside a much larger wind maximum it's going to be hard for the winds to increase. That inner core needs to get disrupted for the outer ring to take over and contract.

do you think the way the latest data looks, could that inner core be disrupted tonight or there is no way to tell until it happens??