NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[Cyclenall]

These systems are making no sense at all.

[HURAKAN]

These systems are making no sense at all.

That's the lesson from the tropics, expect the unexpected.

[HURAKAN]

Look at the outflow in the westwern quadrant.

[Pedro Fernández]

I've got a friend who has a Spanish expression for naming this: CATAPUM!

Wow... What a massive convective burst!

[Coredesat]

AXAU02 APRF 131854
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1854 UTC 13/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 121.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [165 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0600: 16.0S 121.4E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 980
+24: 14/1800: 16.6S 121.2E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 976
+36: 15/0600: 17.3S 121.0E: 095 [175]: 060 [110]: 966
+48: 15/1800: 17.9S 120.7E: 115 [215]: 070 [130]: 958
+60: 16/0600: 19.0S 120.5E: 145 [270]: 080 [150]: 946
+72: 16/1800: 20.0S 120.3E: 165 [305]: 090 [165]: 934
REMARKS:
There has been an increase in convection to the SW of the LLCC, while the system
remains under the influence of moderate NE shear.
CCC pattern has emerged, so intensity based on MET/PT.

We are expecting the system to remain slow developing in the next 12-24 hours,
and then resume standard development thereafter as it moves into a lower shear
environment.

Various NWP beginning to agree on forecast track, which has Nicholas moving
slowly south over the next 48-72 hours.



==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Tampa_God]

I wouldn't suspect much strengthening to occur since it looks like the northern part of the storm is interacting with some shear. I wouldn't even be surprise if they lower the wind speed.

[Coredesat]

NE quadrant is exposed.

[Chacor]

138
WTAU06 APRF 140037
IDW23200
40:3:1:24:16S121E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0035UTC 14 FEBRUARY 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal seven south [15.7S]
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal four east [121.4E]
Recent movement : south at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre in eastern quadrants, and within 90
nautical miles in western quadrants until 1800 UTC 14 February. After 1800 UTC
14 February within 90 nautical miles in all quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 15
February.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 14 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 16.0 south 121.3 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 15 February: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.3 south 121.2 east
Central pressure 964 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 14 February 2008.


WEATHER PERTH

[Chacor]

Forecast trended down again.

064
AXAU02 APRF 140037
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0036 UTC 14/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 121.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [28 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/1200: 16.0S 121.3E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 980
+24: 15/0000: 16.3S 121.2E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 964
+36: 15/1200: 16.9S 121.1E: 110 [205]: 060 [110]: 962
+48: 16/0000: 17.5S 121.0E: 130 [240]: 075 [140]: 950
+60: 16/1200: 18.6S 120.9E: 155 [285]: 075 [140]: 950
+72: 17/0000: 19.6S 120.7E: 180 [335]: 075 [140]: 950
REMARKS:
The system remains under the influence of moderate NE shear and has failed to
develop in the last 24 hours.

We are expecting the system to remain slow developing in the next 12-24 hours,
and then resume standard development thereafter as it moves into a lower shear
environment.

Various NWP beginning to agree on forecast track, which has Nicholas moving
slowly south over the next 48-72 hours.



==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 6:55 pm WDT on Thursday, 14 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.

At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
275 kilometres northwest of Broome and
530 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas remains a slow moving Category 1 system. It is expected to show limited
intensification in the short term, but is likely to develop further during
Friday and Saturday as it moves to the south or southwest towards the coast.

It is possible gales may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Leveque and Bidyadanga on Friday. Gales may develop further south and west to
Whim Creek during Saturday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the
coast west of Whim Creek is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is
still a risk in that area later in the weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 6:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 120.7 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and
Bidyadanga, including Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle
Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
Communities between Cape Leveque and Whim Creek should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Thursday 14 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0639 UTC 14/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 120.8E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm (85 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg)
Speed of Movement:3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 14/1800: 16.1S 120.6E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 972
+24: 15/0600: 16.4S 120.4E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 964
+36: 15/1800: 17.0S 120.0E: 110 (205): 065 (120): 958
+48: 16/0600: 18.0S 119.8E: 130 (240): 075 (140): 950
REMARKS:
The system remains under the influence of moderate NE shear and has failed to develop in the
last 24 hours.

We are expecting the system to remain slow developing in the next 12-24 hours, and then
resume standard development thereafter as it moves into a lower shear environment.

Past motion has been influenced by interaction with other vortices. It is possible that Nicholas
will complete another loop, or at least show some erratic movement before establishing a south
to southwesterly movement in accordance with the consensus of NWP guidance.


Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 9:55 pm WDT on Thursday, 14 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
280 kilometres northwest of Broome and
510 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas remains a slow moving Category 1 system. It is expected to intensify
during Friday and Saturday as it moves to the south or southwest towards the
coast.

It is possible gales may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Leveque and Bidyadanga on Friday. Gales may develop further south and west to
Whim Creek during Saturday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the
coast west of Whim Creek is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is
still a risk in that area later in the weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 120.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and
Bidyadanga, including Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle
Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
Communities between Cape Leveque and Whim Creek should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Friday 15 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[G.B.]

IDW27400
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 14/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 120.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (230 deg)
Speed of Movement:3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0+/S0.0/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 15/0000: 16.4S 120.0E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 976
+24: 15/1200: 17.0S 119.7E: 080 (150): 055 (100): 968
+36: 16/0000: 17.7S 119.2E: 100 (185): 065 (120): 962
+48: 16/1200: 19.0S 119.1E: 120 (220): 075 (140): 954
REMARKS:
The system appears to be intensifying over the last 6 hours with evidence of curvature in the deep convection near the system centre.

The system is being analysed as T 3.0 based on curved band and shear pattern.

As the system moves south into a lower shear environment we are expecting continued development.

Motion is forecast to remain along a south to southwesterly track in accordance with the consensus of NWP guidance.


Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

[G.B.]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 FEB 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 16:18:14 S Lon : 120:16:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -32.9C Cloud Region Temp : -56.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 17:06:00 S Lon: 119:52:12 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25
Issued at 12:45 am WDT on Friday, 15 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.

At 12:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
290 kilometres northwest of Broome and
505 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas remains a slow moving Category 1 system. It is expected to intensify
during Friday and Saturday as it moves to the south or southwest towards the
coast.

It is possible gales may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Leveque and Bidyadanga on Friday. Gales may develop further south and west to
Whim Creek during Saturday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the
coast west of Whim Creek is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is
still a risk in that area later in the weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 12:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 120.3 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Cape Leveque and
Bidyadanga, including Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina, Beagle
Bay, Broome and Bidyadanga should commence taking precautions.
Communities between Cape Leveque and Whim Creek should listen for the next
advice.
The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Friday 15 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Crostorm]

[Coredesat]

AXAU02 APRF 141910
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 14/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 120.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [243 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/0600: 16.5S 119.8E: 055 [100]: 050 [095]: 974
+24: 15/1800: 17.1S 119.3E: 075 [140]: 055 [100]: 966
+36: 16/0600: 18.0S 119.1E: 095 [175]: 065 [120]: 960
+48: 16/1800: 18.9S 118.7E: 115 [215]: 080 [150]: 944
+60: 17/0600: 20.0S 118.1E: 140 [260]: 090 [165]: 932
+72: 17/1800: 21.3S 117.3E: 165 [305]: 080 [150]: 944
REMARKS:
The system underwent some intensification over the last 6-12 hours with evidence
of curvature in the deep convection near the system centre. However, in the past
3 hours, development has ceased.

The system is being analysed as T2.5 based on curved band pattern, although this
pattern is becoming unclear with central convection beginning to occur.

If the Central Cold Cover continues to develop over the next few hours, we would
expect little development in the next 12-24 hours, followed by standard
development thereafter.

Motion is forecast to remain along a south to southwesterly track in accordance
with the consensus of NWP guidance.



==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

65kts-974mb