Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[Squarethecircle]

07/1430 UTC 14.8S 42.6E T5.0/5.0 JOKWE -- South Indian Ocean

90 knots says Dvorak.

At this point in time, I would say about 95-105 knots.

Let's hope Mozambique can get its act together for this one...

[Chacor]

They've had a lot of issues with flooding recently. This will be bad.

[Pedro Fernández]

Take a look to this image from AQUA satellite (MODIS sensor), 500 meters... Simply fantastic...!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[HURAKAN]

Pretty intense.

[P.K.]

Remember how yesterday this increased by 25kts in just 6 hours? Well today it has beaten that and increased 30kts in just 6 hours with it being upgraded to an Intense Tropical Cyclone.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/TGPR/saison/12_table.html

[Squarethecircle]

XD

That's pretty nice for a single storm.

Except now, the eye is filling in again.

Go figure.

[gigabyte89]

W00t

Last time it was a Severe tropical storm. Hours later it's an Intense Tropical Cyclone!!

Speechless....

[Squarethecircle]

I agree, this cyclone is really ridiculous. The chart goes up and down and up and down and up and down, really fast.

SWIO has been very odd this season...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Squarethecircle]

This is very good for Mozambique. Let's hope this kind of trend continues.

[HURAKAN]

07/1900 UTC 14.8S 41.9E T5.5/5.5 JOKWE -- South Indian Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

Ouch.

That's not looking good.

T-numbers support a major storm, and that's definitely a very, very bad sign.

[gigabyte89]

Satellite Animation



Take a look at this site:

Code: Select all

http://firinga.free.fr/saison.htm

It is in french buty its really good!

[Category 5]

Tiny eye and a very healthy looking CDO. SST's are very warm under it (about 29C I believe). I'm very worried for Mozambique.

[Squarethecircle]

This looks really, really bad:


SSTs are ~29 degrees.

[Squarethecircle]

0_o




Bombing out?

[btangy]

Jog more toward the W in recent satellite frames will place the storm close or just S of the town of Mocambique (pop:~48,000). Very small storm so lets hope that it goes inland over a relatively sparsely populated area.

[Squarethecircle]

Eye is still pinhole, looking even better now. I also hope this misses any populated areas, because if it doesn't, well, bad things are pretty certain to happen.

[MiamiensisWx]

It should be noted that winds are not the only threat with Jokwe. Locally heavy precipitation could exuberate flooding issues even if the center misses populated areas.

I must admit that this system seems like Charley. It's tiny and very intense. It's also intensifying as it approaches land.

[Squarethecircle]

Chacor noted earlier that, yes, that is the big problem with this. Hopefully it'll move out quickly and that won't be a huge threat.