NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

[wyq614]

Chinese Meteorological Agency bulletin:

今年第1号热带风暴浣熊（NEOGURI）已于今天下午在南海南部海面上生成，下午5点钟其中心位于海南省三亚市东南方大约1070公里的南海南部海面上，就是北纬10.8度，东经115.8 度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒）。　　
　　预计，风暴中心将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，以后将转向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。受其影响，今天晚上到明天白天，南海南部和中部海面有7-8级大风，部分海域阵风可达9-10级。 　　
　　请上述海域过往船只注意航行安全。

The No.1 Tropical Storm of this year NEOGURI has been upgraded from TD grade this afternoon. At 5pm Beijing Time, it was centered in the southern part of the South China Sea, some 1070km southeast away from Sanya City, Hainan Province i.e. 10.8N 115.8E. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 8 bft (18m/s)

The storm will move west-northwestward at 10-15km/h and then curve northwestward while intensifying. Under its influence, A 7-8 bft wind gusting to 9-10 bft will occur in the south part as well as the central part of South China Sea tonight and tomorrow.

Any ship sailing in this area please watch out.

[jams]

Chinese Meteorological Agency bulletin:

今年第1号热带风暴浣熊（NEOGURI）已于今天下午在南海南部海面上生成，下午5点钟其中心位于海南省三亚市东南方大约1070公里的南海南部海面上，就是北纬10.8度，东经115.8 度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒）。　　
　　预计，风暴中心将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，以后将转向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。受其影响，今天晚上到明天白天，南海南部和中部海面有7-8级大风，部分海域阵风可达9-10级。 　　
　　请上述海域过往船只注意航行安全。

The No.1 Tropical Storm of this year NEOGURI has been upgraded from TD grade this afternoon. At 5pm Beijing Time, it was centered in the southern part of the South China Sea, some 1070km southeast away from Sanya City, Hainan Province i.e. 10.8N 115.8E. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 8 bft (18m/s)

The storm will move west-northwestward at 10-15km/h and then curve northwestward while intensifying. Under its influence, A 7-8 bft wind gusting to 9-10 bft will occur in the south part as well as the central part of South China Sea tonight and tomorrow.

Any ship sailing in this area please watch out.

Yet based on 0929Z SSMI, the centre apppears to be well north of most agencies' fixes.
At least not below 11N said by CMA.

[Chacor]

12Z:

JMA (RSMC):
** WTPQ20 RJTD 151200 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 11.3N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 12.7N 113.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 14.0N 111.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 181200UTC 16.1N 109.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

CMA:
** WTPQ20 BABJ 151200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 151200 UTC
00HR 11.0N 115.4E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 150KM
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 12.2N 113.1E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 13.9N 111.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 16.0N 109.9E 980HPA 30M/S=

TMD:
** WTTH20 VTBB 151200 ***
TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY
NAME TS NEOGURI (0801)
PSTN 151200 UTC 11.2 N 115.5 E
MOVE WNW 10 KTS
PRES 998 HPA
MAXD 35 KT
FORECAST
24 HR 161200 UTC 12.5 N 113.0 E
MOVE WNW 06 KTS
PRES 992 HPA
MAXD 45 KT
48 HR 171200 UTC 14.0 N 111.2 E
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990 HPA
MAXD 50 KT

[CrazyC83]

JTWC forecasting a typhoon out of this...and it is the first official named storm this year in the northern hemisphere.

[senorpepr]

[CrazyC83]

Kinda looks subtropical...

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing even remotely subtropical about this storm

[senorpepr]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.1N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.1N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.2N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.9N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.4N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 114.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z
AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Starting to develop some new deep convection. Lets see how close it gets to Vietnam.

[HURAKAN]

15/1457 UTC 11.9N 114.7E T3.0/3.0 NEOGURI -- West Pacific Ocean





Becoming much beautiful!!!

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 12.8N 114.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 15.2N 112.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 171800UTC 16.8N 111.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181800UTC 18.5N 110.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

Looks much, much better & organized.

[HURAKAN]

CDO developing.

[Cyclenall]

Kinda looks subtropical...

It doesn't even look remotely close to subtropical, but I know why your saying that. The way the shape and size of it was, reminds you of subtropical TC's.

Convection is forming at the center and looks large. I know it was average size yesterday morning, I need to check what it's now if it changed.

[CrazyC83]

Kinda looks subtropical...

It doesn't even look remotely close to subtropical, but I know why your saying that. The way the shape and size of it was, reminds you of subtropical TC's.

Convection is forming at the center and looks large. I know it was average size yesterday morning, I need to check what it's now if it changed.

At the time it just looked like the convection was spread out, somewhat like Andrea last year. It seems to have a more classic look now.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 APR 2008 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:38:14 N Lon : 114:01:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.1 3.3 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -57.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

It looks stronger than 50 mph. An eye seems to be developing.

[CrazyC83]

It looks stronger than 50 mph. An eye seems to be developing.

My guess is 50 kt at this point (pressure around 990mb).

[HURAKAN]

Classic!



Intensification continous.

[CrazyC83]

15/2030 UTC 13.1N 113.9E T3.5/3.5 NEOGURI -- West Pacific Ocean

Supports 55 kt...