Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[Chacor]

Upgraded to severe cyclonic storm. I have to say, IMD appears to be more on the ball this year.

BOB 01/2008/08 Dated: 28th April, 2008







Subject: Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal.



The cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 28th April 2008 near lat. 13.0 deg N and long. 85.5 deg E, about 550 km east of Chennai. Numerical Weather Preditction models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction slowly for some more time. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve and move northeastwards.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph is also likely over Andaman island and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamilnadu & Andhra Pradesh coasts and around Andaman islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

[Chacor]

Earlier weakening might have been an EWRC.

REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 281125Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE
WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS A CONCENTRIC EYE FEATURE. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE
KEEPING TC 01B IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. NEAR TAU 24, THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 01B TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THE
STORM WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.

[senorpepr]

Taking a look at the 12Z suite of models, CLIP and CLIM remain the far westerly models, projecting northward movement and an Indian landfall shortly after T+72. The rest of the models keeps Nargis moving northeastward. GFNI is the northernmost of the models, bringing landfall beyond the T+120 mark in southern Bangladesh (around and south of Chittagong). The rest of the models project a Myanmar landfall around T+120 mark. The furtherest south solution is the JAVI (AVNI is close as well). They project landfall between Yangon and Tavoy, Myanmar.

The main bases for the northeastward movement (as opposed to the climatological-baised northward movement) is the steering flow from the subtropical ridge.


The intensity forecast has the initial intensity set for 65KT. Most of the models continue strengthening Nargis throughout the period. JNGI maintains category one strength with some weakening after day three. AJVI also maintains category one strength, but then strengthens to 90KT by T+120. The bulk of the models seem to agree on steady strengthening for at least the next three days, with sustained winds near 115KT by T+72.

With that said, this should led to be an interesting week as a potentially major cyclone impacts Myanmar (and eventually Thailand).

[salmon123]

is there any posibility nargis can turn towards nort westward ? into indian ocean

[senorpepr]

is there any posibility nargis can turn towards nort westward ? into indian ocean

I would say it's possible, but not too probable. It could happen if the subtropical ridge strengthens, pushing the system northwestward. A northward motion (along the lines of climatology, but still not as probable as northeastward) would be more likely than northwestward. It all really depends on the strength of the steering currents aloft.

[salmon123]

well thanks 4 your comments

[P.K.]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 28-04-2008


TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 2000 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 28 TH APRIL 2008.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 55 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 14.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SLOWLY FOR SOME TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5.

[HURAKAN]

Eye coming back!

[HURAKAN]

Looking great!

[Cyclenall]

I have never seen a TC this large before in the Bay of Bengal except maybe Cyclone Sidr last November. How does the size of this storm compare to Sidr?

[Chacor]

Up to Category 2-equivalent.

01B NARGIS 080429 0000 13.6N 85.2E IO 85 959
01B NARGIS 080429 0000 13.6N 85.2E IO 85 959
01B NARGIS 080429 0000 13.6N 85.2E IO 85 959
01B NARGIS 080428 1800 13.2N 85.2E IO 75 967
01B NARGIS 080428 1800 13.2N 85.2E IO 75 967
01B NARGIS 080428 1800 13.2N 85.2E IO 75 967
01B NARGIS 080428 1200 12.9N 85.3E IO 65 974
01B NARGIS 080428 1200 12.9N 85.3E IO 65 974
01B NARGIS 080428 0600 12.7N 85.4E IO 65 974
01B NARGIS 080428 0600 12.7N 85.4E IO 65 974
01B NARGIS 080428 0000 12.6N 85.5E IO 55 982
01B NARGIS 080428 0000 12.6N 85.5E IO 55 982
01B NARGIS 080427 1800 12.5N 85.6E IO 40 993
01B NARGIS 080427 1200 12.1N 85.9E IO 35 996
01B NARGIS 080427 0600 11.8N 86.3E IO 30 1000
01B NARGIS 080427 0000 11.7N 86.8E IO 25 1002
01B NARGIS 080426 1800 11.6N 87.3E IO 25 1004
01B NARGIS 080426 1200 11.4N 87.9E IO 25 1004
01B NARGIS 080426 0600 11.2N 88.6E IO 20 1007
01B NARGIS 080426 0000 11.0N 89.3E IO 20 1007
01B NARGIS 080425 1800 10.7N 90.1E IO 20 1007
01B NARGIS 080425 1200 10.3N 90.8E IO 20 1007
01B NARGIS 080425 0600 9.9N 91.5E IO 15 1010
01B NARGIS 080425 0000 9.4N 92.6E IO 15 1010
01B NARGIS 080424 1800 9.2N 93.6E IO 15 1010

[zaqxsw75050]

[Chacor]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 28-04-2008



TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. EIGHT ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 28 TH APRIL 2008.


THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 55 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 14.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SLOWLY FOR SOME TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5.

[Chacor]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 28-04-2008



TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2008.


THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL SLIGHTLY MOVED IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 29TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 55 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 15.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.50 TO 87.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5.

[Chacor]

T4.0 at 02z fix by Delhi, which means we could (should?) see an upgrade to very severe cyclonic storm (64 kt) status at the 03z bulletin or 06z warning.

[zaqxsw75050]

[Chacor]

Doesn't look quite 85 kts 1-min, does it.

[Chacor]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. TEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0300 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2008.


THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 29TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.50 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 65 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 15.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.50 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC IS T5.0 RPT T5.0 .

[jit2006]

Hi I am new here.Just joined today.
Can anyone give me sites on these
CLIP and CLIM and GFNI
Thanks in advance

[salmon123]

hi can any one plz tell me what probability of rain in india this monsoon ?