Arthur's remnents near the BOC

[HURAKAN]

If anything will happen, it will happen in the BOC.

[Eyewall]

Alrighty here is where the nhc had the low placed at 8 am this morning:



and we are pretty sure that the low is almost due north of that now. sooo the high has probably been weaker than everyone thought. someone is trusting weather maps too much

[MiamiensisWx]

Alrighty here is where the nhc had the low placed at 8 am this morning:
and we are pretty sure that the low is almost due north of that now. sooo the high has probably been weaker than everyone thought. someone is trusting weather maps too much

The NHC isn't wrong. The old low level circulation of Alma dissipated and a broader one formed off Belize.

I think your comment about "trusting weather maps too much" is potentially incindiary to the experts.

[djones65]

An unidentified ship at 0000 UTC 31 May near 17.8N and 86.3W reported southeast 130degree winds at 28kt and a pressure of 1006 mb. That would be about 65 miles east northeast of the center of circulation. Not too bad.
Like I said previously I do not think this system will be upgraded to a depression prior to moving over the Yucatan, but it isn't out of the question either.

[Stratosphere747]

Alrighty here is where the nhc had the low placed at 8 am this morning:

and we are pretty sure that the low is almost due north of that now. sooo the high has probably been weaker than everyone thought. someone is trusting weather maps too much

No. You're assuming there has been one definitive center...

[Eyewall]

Alrighty here is where the nhc had the low placed at 8 am this morning:
and we are pretty sure that the low is almost due north of that now. sooo the high has probably been weaker than everyone thought. someone is trusting weather maps too much

The NHC isn't wrong. The old low level circulation of Alma dissipated and a broader one formed off Belize.

I think your comment about "trusting weather maps too much" is potentially incindiary to the experts.

this board is about discussing opinions not bowing down to the "experts"

[MiamiensisWx]

this board is about discussing opinions not bowing down to the "experts"

I don't always agree with them, but I believe they're correct in this situation. I do not base my opinion on blind obedience; all available evidence suggests the NHC is correct here.

[jaxfladude]

I feel like an idiot thinking nothing would develop before June 1st....

[djones65]

What I read previously from eyewall is that he stated the low level circulation "reformed farther north even though the entire system seems to be drifting westward." That was my point as well, that the system has been organizing during the day, but at a location farther northeast of where most people were placing the low level circulation. I was not implying it would move northeast since the ridge should stay strong through 72 hours. Thereafter, a trough approaching the plains could induce a weakness allowing the system to move northward out of the BOC. But I just wanted to reiterate what I said about the system being located to the north and east slightly of where other members of this board estimated it, and what I recall eyewall stating previously.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Alrighty here is where the nhc had the low placed at 8 am this morning:
and we are pretty sure that the low is almost due north of that now. sooo the high has probably been weaker than everyone thought. someone is trusting weather maps too much

The NHC isn't wrong. The old low level circulation of Alma dissipated and a broader one formed off Belize.

I think your comment about "trusting weather maps too much" is potentially incindiary to the experts.

Some times things change in weather. That is how it works and why it's so hard to forecast things even with all our models and expert knowledge, believe me I've got the highest level of respect for our pro's that had to pass god knows how many math and science classes. I can only pray to get there one day with out going insane. . On one hand I think it could stay over water for another 12-24 hours, but on the other I don't think it has much chance if it gets over the Yucatan.

[Derek Ortt]

not impressed wtih this system. Looked at it carefully today and determined that while there is a broad monsoon-like circulation, due to the ridge to the north, this will likely be inland before having the chance to develop.

Not going to run the MM5 models on this system

[NDG]

I am just amazed how well set up is the UL environment over the GOH tonight, this is as good as it gets for this time of the year, I am fairly sure is a sign for what is to come down the road for July-October.

[Derek Ortt]

there is a SLIGHT chance that this may do something in the BOC, similar to Bret/Gert/Jose 2005

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What I read previously from eyewall is that he stated the low level circulation "reformed farther north even though the entire system seems to be drifting westward." That was my point as well, that the system has been organizing during the day, but at a location farther northeast of where most people were placing the low level circulation. I was not implying it would move northeast since the ridge should stay strong through 72 hours. Thereafter, a trough approaching the plains could induce a weakness allowing the system to move northward out of the BOC. But I just wanted to reiterate what I said about the system being located to the north and east slightly of where other members of this board estimated it, and what I recall eyewall stating previously.

Your very knowledgeable and I agree with you a million percent. It's a wait and see with this system. Have a nice weekend.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

The slow movement of this system could result in copious precipitation and potential flooding in portions of Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

No floater tonight, unfortunately... needs to have slightly higher chances of development for me to put out a floater. Looks like whatever circulation there is is about to move inland. Thus, I am fairly confident that there will be no development prior to landfall. But as I said, watch the BOC

[CycloneNL]

Nrl says now :

30kts and 1005mb

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 310024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080531 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080531 0000 080531 1200 080601 0000 080601 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 87.5W 17.6N 89.1W 18.1N 90.5W 18.3N 91.7W
BAMD 16.9N 87.5W 17.3N 88.7W 17.6N 89.8W 17.6N 90.8W
BAMM 16.9N 87.5W 17.5N 88.8W 17.9N 90.0W 17.9N 91.1W
LBAR 16.9N 87.5W 17.2N 88.7W 17.9N 90.1W 18.6N 91.4W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080602 0000 080603 0000 080604 0000 080605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 93.0W 17.7N 95.3W 17.0N 97.5W 16.4N 99.0W
BAMD 17.5N 92.0W 16.9N 94.7W 16.9N 97.8W 16.6N 101.1W
BAMM 17.8N 92.3W 17.0N 95.3W 16.6N 98.3W 16.0N 101.2W
LBAR 19.5N 92.7W 20.5N 95.6W 21.5N 98.0W 21.7N 100.3W
SHIP 64KTS 76KTS 79KTS 76KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 87.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 86.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[JonathanBelles]

Is there a GFS verification somewhere?

[Aric Dunn]

863
WHXX01 KWBC 310024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT MAY 31 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902008) 20080531 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080531 0000 080531 1200 080601 0000 080601 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 87.5W 17.6N 89.1W 18.1N 90.5W 18.3N 91.7W
BAMD 16.9N 87.5W 17.3N 88.7W 17.6N 89.8W 17.6N 90.8W
BAMM 16.9N 87.5W 17.5N 88.8W 17.9N 90.0W 17.9N 91.1W
LBAR 16.9N 87.5W 17.2N 88.7W 17.9N 90.1W 18.6N 91.4W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080602 0000 080603 0000 080604 0000 080605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 93.0W 17.7N 95.3W 17.0N 97.5W 16.4N 99.0W
BAMD 17.5N 92.0W 16.9N 94.7W 16.9N 97.8W 16.6N 101.1W
BAMM 17.8N 92.3W 17.0N 95.3W 16.6N 98.3W 16.0N 101.2W
LBAR 19.5N 92.7W 20.5N 95.6W 21.5N 98.0W 21.7N 100.3W
SHIP 64KTS 76KTS 79KTS 76KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 87.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 86.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 16.9N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN