Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[Category 5]

Like I said before...The most boring storms out there...EPAC Westward Ho Storms...

Then whats an interesting storm hmm?

[HURAKAN]

Like I said before...The most boring storms out there...EPAC Westward Ho Storms...

Then whats an interesting storm hmm?

I guess one that's a menace to land.

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall trying to form?

Another scan seems to think so!

[AnnularCane]

This is interesting.

THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO...WITH BORIS BECOMING STATIONARY OR MOVING EASTWARD AFTER
96 HR DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
EAST. WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE ECMWF
MAY BE MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO POWERFUL AND TOO LARGE. THUS...ITS
FORECAST TRACK FOR BORIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


So what is out there to its east? 95E is to the west.

I don't see anything east of there. Are they talking about something the models are picking up?

[Chacor]

ECMWF = Euro model, so yes.

[srainhoutx]

This is interesting.

THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO...WITH BORIS BECOMING STATIONARY OR MOVING EASTWARD AFTER
96 HR DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE
EAST. WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE ECMWF
MAY BE MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO POWERFUL AND TOO LARGE. THUS...ITS
FORECAST TRACK FOR BORIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


So what is out there to its east? 95E is to the west.

I don't see anything east of there. Are they talking about something the models are picking up?

From HPC Caribbean Narrative before TS upgrade...snipet...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W/93W AND SOUTH OF 22N IS INTERACTING WITH
THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG 95W/96W BY 24 HRS... 96W/97W BY 36 HRS...99W/100W BY 48
HRS...101W/102W BY 60 HRS...103W/104W BY 72 HRS...AND 105W/106W BY
84 HRS. ALONG THIS AXIS...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ...THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ALONG 10N...FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2E (SEE NHC BULLETINS). THIS
WAVE...IN INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUSTAINS ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM OVER BELIZE/YUCATAN THROUGH 24-30
HRS. OVER EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN
MEXICO EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE ACROSS OAXACA/VERACRUZ-CENTRAL MEXICO AND GUERRERO
MAXIMA WILL PEAK AT 30-60MM/DAY. FURTHERMORE THIS WAVE SUSTAINS
THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF THE ITCZ OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA THROUGH 24-36
HRS...WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[cycloneye]

27/1800 UTC 13.2N 109.5W T3.0/3.0 BORIS -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

It seems like the B name storms in the Epac always look impressive as a new TS. The organization is super good. What is the SHIPS RI index for this?

I'm not ruling out the chance of a hurricane out of this. The way it's been acting spells out RI (again).

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts:

WHXX01 KMIA 271847
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1847 UTC FRI JUN 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080627 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080627 1800 080628 0600 080628 1800 080629 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 109.5W 14.1N 111.0W 14.9N 112.6W 15.5N 114.1W
BAMD 13.1N 109.5W 13.9N 111.2W 14.5N 113.0W 14.8N 115.0W
BAMM 13.1N 109.5W 14.2N 111.1W 15.1N 112.9W 15.6N 114.9W
LBAR 13.1N 109.5W 14.1N 111.0W 14.9N 113.1W 15.4N 115.4W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080629 1800 080630 1800 080701 1800 080702 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 116.0W 15.8N 120.8W 15.7N 126.2W 15.5N 132.0W
BAMD 15.0N 117.5W 15.7N 123.2W 16.7N 128.8W 18.0N 133.7W
BAMM 16.0N 117.5W 16.6N 123.5W 17.4N 129.7W 18.6N 135.2W
LBAR 15.7N 118.2W 16.2N 124.3W 17.1N 130.1W 14.9N 133.8W
SHIP 48KTS 44KTS 43KTS 41KTS
DSHP 48KTS 44KTS 43KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 109.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 108.3W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 106.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNNCyclenall,here is what you are looking for.

Code: Select all

            *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *       BORIS  EP022008  06/27/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    49    52    53    53    52    48    46    44    43    43    42    41
V (KT) LAND       45    49    52    53    53    52    48    46    44    43    43    42    41
V (KT) LGE mod    45    50    53    55    55    52    47    42    39    37    36    36    35

SHEAR (KTS)        8    14    16    19    22    23    27    16    15    12     9    11    12
SHEAR DIR         19    16    41    28    40    46    58    98   163   191   176   174   167
SST (C)         28.1  27.8  27.6  27.4  27.3  27.3  27.4  27.4  27.4  27.3  26.8  26.5  26.3
POT. INT. (KT)   144   141   139   137   136   136   137   137   138   136   131   127   125
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     5     5     4     4     4     4     4     4     3     3
700-500 MB RH     76    72    72    73    68    73    67    65    62    61    59    61    56
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10     9     9     9     9     8     8  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -33   -36   -40   -41   -40   -34   -28    -9     7    42    45    72    81
200 MB DIV        24    17     6    -2     0    10    -8    29    64    87    77   103    96
LAND (KM)        845   870   900   950  1004  1110  1176  1270  1394  1522  1631  1731  1838
LAT (DEG N)     13.1  13.3  13.5  13.6  13.7  13.7  13.8  13.8  13.8  13.7  13.8  13.8  13.8
LONG(DEG W)    109.5 110.2 110.8 111.6 112.3 114.1 115.7 117.3 119.1 120.8 122.6 124.0 125.4
STM SPEED (KT)     7     7     7     7     8     8     8     8     9     8     8     7     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  8      CX,CY:  -5/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  625  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  24.4 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  86.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  11.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   6.   8.   9.   9.   9.   9.   8.   7.   6.   5.   4.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   4.   4.   4.   3.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       4.   7.   8.   9.   9.   5.   3.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   7.   8.   8.   7.   3.   1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP022008      BORIS 06/27/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  15.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.8 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  94.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  80.0 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.0 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    25% is   2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022008      BORIS 06/27/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Tropical Storm Boris becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 50% (I think RI is possible)
Category 2 Hurricane: 10%
"" 3 "": 5%
"" 4 "": 2%
"" 5 "": 0.08%

First % chance of Tropical Storm Boris strengthening:

Very slowly/None: 2%
Slowly: 8%
Moderately: 20%
Quickly: 40%
Rapidly: 25%
Very Rapidly: 4.6%
Record Breaking Rapid: 0.4%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 272036
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...BORIS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST OR ABOUT 665
MILES...1070 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ABOUT 535 MILES...865 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

BORIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...
85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...13.3 N...109.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

627
WTPZ42 KNHC 272037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

BORIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY. DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z SHOWS THAT
BORIS HAS A BROAD INNER CIRCULATION...WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS
LOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

BORIS HAS JOGGED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/8. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE FORECAST
TRACK BEING SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
BORIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48
HR WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BEST
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK
OF BORIS COULD BE INFLUENCED BY INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE
WEST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ANOTHER CYCLONE FORECAST BY
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EAST OF BORIS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY DOES NOT TAKE THESE POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS
INTO ACCOUNT.

BORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN EARLIER ONSET
AND LONGER DURATION OF THE SHEAR THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON BORIS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR BORIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
60 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. AFTER 24-36 HR...BORIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND SLOWLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.3N 109.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.7N 110.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.0N 112.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.2N 115.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 14.0N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 14.0N 124.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to have formed a CDO with pretty good banding. IMHO would say around 50 knots. Also think that this has about 12-24 hours of to strengthen, if the Anticyclone don't increase eastly shear over the system this could become a hurricane for a short time. We will have to see.

[CrazyC83]

That intensity seems conservative...as does the 60 kt forecast.

[RL3AO]

Both Alma and Boris have not been happy with staying weak tropical storms. Pretty quick intensification.

[HURAKAN]

[x-y-no]

Hey now ... that's looking healthy.

Looks to me like this has a fairly good chance of getting to hurricane strength for a short while.

[Cyclone1]

Very deep convection. Look's impressive. I'd say a hurricane is to be expected.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Hurricane Boris within 12 hours?

[KWT]

Still looks a touch sheared with the systems CDO more displaced on the southern side with the northern side a touch light in that regard. Still its not enough yet to stop the system from strengthening and the fact its still got a CDO along with a very impressive outflow on the SW side you'd have to expect strengthening, possibly to hurricane status, the first of the season.