ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL animation shows a bonifide hurricane tracking thru the northern Leewards.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

Yep sadly thats the case on this run cycloneye, also would hit some islands with hurricane force winds as well, probably would be about 70kts based on that.

[Duddy]

Look out Florida, looks like you might be the 1st state this season.

[MiamiensisWx]

Look out Florida, looks like you might be the 1st state this season.

Why are we speculating so far out?

Frankly, I don't understand it. I'm not even remotely worried for my area at this time, though I'm placing 94L under very close scrutiny.

I will state one thing: if 94L followed the model "cluster" and passed over or just north of the Leewards, it would be in perfect position to threaten the Southeast.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I only get worried when the models don't show it coming my way this far out.

[Duddy]

Look out Florida, looks like you might be the 1st state this season.

Why are we speculating so far out?

Frankly, I don't understand it. I'm not even remotely worried for my area at this time, though I'm placing 94L under very close scrutiny.

I will state one thing: if 94L followed the model "cluster" and passed over or just north of the Leewards, it would be in perfect position to threaten the Southeast.

Why not?

Besides, I like the sound of hearing you clench your cheeks

[NDG]

18z GFS & GFDL came in line a little closer to the 12z Euro.

But big differences in the 7-10 day range sypnotic set up between the GFS and Euro. The GFS has a big trough digging on the east coast that would pick up the future to be Cristobal, while the Euro has a much smaller trough that would not pick it up once is near the Bahamas and would continue moving slowly WNW or NW near the Bahamas, if it survives the track across D.R. according to both models.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF has it less strong than GFDL but almost the same track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[chadtm80]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If I had to make a cone for this "cyclone", I would put Ivans track on the southern part of it, with Georges 98, Frances 2004 on the northern side of it. Why because I feel strongly enough that the ridge will redevelop to its north once Bertha moves out(recurves). I would say Aka Charley track or slightly north.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC BAMS are late.Maybe they are trying to pinpoint a center.

[cycloneye]

Well,here they are,no SHIP here.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0114 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080714 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 0000 080714 1200 080715 0000 080715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 38.9W 10.4N 40.9W 10.8N 43.1W 11.2N 45.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 0000 080717 0000 080718 0000 080719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 48.2W 12.5N 53.6W 13.3N 59.9W 14.6N 66.3W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 38.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[brunota2003]

No SHIPS and only the BAMD? Sounds like they might be having some technical difficulties?

[cycloneye]

[Duddy]

This is going to be a VEEEERY long thread.

[boca]

These models wull have Florida as a target,tomorrow the Yucatan,the next day North Carolina or a recurve.Its just a grain of salt this far out.

[Nimbus]

Thanks Luis, guess the Deep flow is the only one they think we will need in a few days.
I'm going to dream about Charley tonight.

[gatorcane]

This is going to be a VEEEERY long thread.

I agree Boca the cone is more than likely going to hit some places initially that won't be the ultimate target....

[TheRingo]

Look at the xtrp. It's developing quickly and maybe finding the weakness towards Bertha.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at the xtrp. It's developing quickly and maybe finding the weakness towards Bertha.

That is the direction it is currently going. Not a model!