Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[bvigal]

OK, I must leave the computer, if I'm to get anything done the rest of the day.
WHAT DO WE KNOW, NOW?

[El Nino]

Wind is shifting to the S

[MiamiensisWx]

NOAA2 isn't sending dropsondes with corresponding pressures.

[x-y-no]

Code: Select all

URNT15 KNHC 141837
AF308 04DDA INVEST HDOB 09 20080814
182730 1759N 06147W 9770 00309 0121 +228 +200 158017 018 999 999 03
182800 1800N 06145W 9772 00307 0122 +226 +200 164021 022 999 999 03
182830 1801N 06144W 9771 00307 0121 +226 +200 166028 029 999 999 03
182900 1802N 06143W 9775 00304 0124 +217 +200 170030 031 999 999 03
182930 1803N 06141W 9774 00308 0126 +210 +200 166024 026 999 999 03
183000 1804N 06140W 9767 00311 0125 +207 +200 168025 026 999 999 03
183030 1805N 06138W 9770 00309 0125 +212 +200 170026 027 999 999 03
183100 1806N 06137W 9771 00310 0126 +216 +200 168024 025 999 999 03
183130 1806N 06136W 9776 00307 0127 +213 +200 174021 022 999 999 03
183200 1806N 06134W 9768 00313 0127 +211 +200 183020 021 999 999 03
183230 1806N 06132W 9771 00311 0128 +209 +200 197021 023 034 013 03
183300 1806N 06131W 9770 00314 0131 +201 +200 203016 018 035 012 00
183330 1806N 06129W 9777 00308 0131 +199 +199 208017 018 042 016 00
183400 1805N 06127W 9758 00323 0131 +187 +187 220018 018 043 017 00
183430 1805N 06126W 9765 00316 0126 +212 +200 224021 024 039 012 00
183500 1805N 06124W 9767 00316 0128 +216 +200 225023 024 027 009 00
183530 1804N 06122W 9766 00316 0127 +220 +200 233022 022 028 007 00
183600 1804N 06121W 9778 00308 0129 +216 +200 229016 020 031 011 03
183630 1803N 06119W 9764 00319 0130 +211 +200 231010 012 035 012 03
183700 1803N 06117W 9774 00310 0129 +214 +200 231010 011 037 015 00
$$

43 kt SFMR, SW winds - maybe a circulation in the convection?


Maybe not a closed surface circulation yet, but pretty strong SW wind all the way up at 18N 61.3W

[gatorcane]

I think TD or TS Fay is very imminent with these obs

[x-y-no]

Maybe multiple vortices in there ... AF and NOAA data don't quite fit.

[cpdaman]

yes doesn't seem to quite fit


area of lowest pressure reported appears to be 19n 62.5 (per recon 1007.9 mb)

are there signs the low pressure is oriented nw/se- i am watching for more banding features developing to the ne of the blob

[Aric Dunn]

have not been paying attention .. but just curious at this point..

have they found anything .. worth noting

i kind of already knew what they were going to find before they got out there so i did not pay much attention

but anything interesting?

[RL3AO]

have not been paying attention .. but just curious at this point..

have they found anything .. worth noting

i kind of already knew what they were going to find before they got out there so i did not pay much attention

but anything interesting?

They found some SW winds in the main blob. Lets see if they head back to it. I think its almost closed, but not quite there yet.

[KWT]

Maybe multiple vortices in there ... AF and NOAA data don't quite fit.

Yeah I can't really see one dominant vortex in there, looks like the data from the planes is different...

BUT are they flying at the same altitude?

[MWatkins]

I am a little puzzled by the center 18z estimate at 63.6W (for the model initializaton). They are spending a LOT of time back near 18/62. They must be seeing something on radar that is causing them to keep intersecting that area (in addition to the HDOB's we're seeing).

MW

[Aric Dunn]

I am a little puzzled by the center estimate at 63.6W. They are spending a LOT of time back near 18/62. They must be seeing something on radar that is causing them to keep intersecting that area (in addition to the HDOB's we're seeing).

MW

yeah that very vigorous midlevel circ....

hi by the way

[hiflyer]

Seeing NOAA42 and NOAA43 both staging out of Barbados per last known tracking from Flight Explorer....NOAA49 does not show flying for past 7 plus days and that was up at McDill....thats the G4 callsign.....and have not seen a tasked mission for it during the 92L recon.

[MWatkins]

Hi Aric...

Has anyone seen any winds in the 300 bearing range? It's possible we haven't seen the NW side close off yet and we are still dealing with a very sharp trough axis.

That being said...it won't be very much longer before it closes off...seems like it's only a matter of a few hours at this point.

MW

[deltadog03]

MW, it appears, from looking at the last recon obs from the AF plane in the recon thread that they may have closed one off.

[KWT]

They closed off the weak LLC much further west of the deep convection, as you'd probably expect given its been churning down there for a while now, need a vortex first though...

[deltadog03]

If thats they case....man, thats a tough call. Well west of convection. That might be why the MLC can't drop the circ to the SFC.

[CrazyC83]

This is definitely confusing with two planes showing different centers...

[Blown Away]

If thats they case....man, thats a tough call. Well west of convection. That might be why the MLC can't drop the circ to the SFC.

The models seem to initialize very close to that W location.

[KWT]

Yeah that feature that recon caught was the eddy/LLC that the NHC best track has been tracking over the past 24hrs.