ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Meso]

Another view of that

[apocalypt-flyer]

A Mexico hit would be QUITE something. Ike would have to shoot through the whole Islands and the Gulf like an arrow. It would be rather surreal if this didn't get picked up by ANYTHING along its way in September. The Cuba scenario, whoever seems quite likely at this point.

[Portastorm]

A Mexico hit would be QUITE something. Ike would have to shoot through the whole Islands and the Gulf like an arrow. It would be rather surreal if this didn't get picked up by ANYTHING along its way in September. The Cuba scenario, whoever seems quite likely at this point.

Not totally unusual for this time of year. I would reference one Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Track was a steady-state west-northwest all the way from birth to death of the mighty storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A Mexico hit would be QUITE something. Ike would have to shoot through the whole Islands and the Gulf like an arrow. It would be rather surreal if this didn't get picked up by ANYTHING along its way in September. The Cuba scenario, whoever seems quite likely at this point.

Not totally unusual for this time of year. I would reference one Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Track was a steady-state west-northwest all the way from birth to death of the mighty storm.

Gilbert didn't start at 20ºN...

[KWT]

Yeah and Gilbert didn't track WSW either like some of the models are suggesting, thats what makes this track quite a bit more rare.

[Portastorm]

Ed and KWT, true on both accounts ... however, my point was simply that a straight-line type track where a major hurricane is NOT picked up by a trough or anything ... this time of year ... can happen. I don't argue the unusual nature of what is currently predicted by the models.

[apocalypt-flyer]

A Mexico hit would be QUITE something. Ike would have to shoot through the whole Islands and the Gulf like an arrow. It would be rather surreal if this didn't get picked up by ANYTHING along its way in September. The Cuba scenario, however seems quite likely at this point.

Not totally unusual for this time of year. I would reference one Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Track was a steady-state west-northwest all the way from birth to death of the mighty storm.

Gilbert didn't start at 20ºN...

That's the point. Ike starts nearby the 20°N and it would be not gaining any latitude if it made it all the way to the Tampico area.

Absolutely bizarre. But I don't buy anything 10 days away yet.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 021302
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC TUE SEP 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080902 1200 080903 0000 080903 1200 080904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 44.3W 19.4N 47.6W 20.1N 51.0W 21.1N 54.3W
BAMD 18.8N 44.3W 19.4N 47.5W 19.9N 50.9W 20.1N 54.3W
BAMM 18.8N 44.3W 19.3N 47.6W 19.7N 51.1W 20.1N 54.4W
LBAR 18.8N 44.3W 19.7N 47.5W 20.8N 51.1W 22.2N 54.7W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 64KTS 67KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 64KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200 080907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 57.5W 22.4N 62.7W 21.7N 69.0W 21.3N 75.8W
BAMD 20.1N 57.9W 19.2N 65.3W 18.1N 73.7W 17.1N 81.7W
BAMM 20.3N 57.8W 20.3N 63.9W 19.7N 70.8W 19.0N 77.4W
LBAR 23.3N 58.1W 24.3N 63.9W 20.8N 70.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 68KTS 65KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 68KTS 65KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 17.7N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM

[KWT]

Models very keen on a caribbean hit it seems but we shall have to wait and see, some of those models look very bad for the hurricane killer island...hispaniola.

[attallaman]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

[Portastorm]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

Consider me one amateur who would answer your question with: "absolutely." Based on the strong consensus of the computer models right now, I think it could definitely be in the GOM by next week.

[Ivanhater]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

I would say very likely at this point..but we still have plenty of time to watch this..the Euro does bring this in the Gulf in the long range..

[Sirius LeWindy]

I am going to go out on a limb and say it will hit DR and Haiti, and stay there for a day or so.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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[Stormcenter]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

I would say very likely at this point..but we still have plenty of time to watch this..the Euro does bring this in the Gulf in the long range..

Actually some of the models would suggest a track across the GOM and not affecting the U.S.

[ROCK]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

I would say very likely at this point..but we still have plenty of time to watch this..the Euro does bring this in the Gulf in the long range..

Actually some of the models would suggest a track across the GOM and not affecting the U.S.

if you guys are basing your opinions off the 240 EURO I dont want you in my fox hole...

Lets be honest. Dean and Felix defied the models and went straight into MX. Gustav went straight NW after Cuba...didnt turn a lick.......a track like this can happen...You guys should know this with alll the screwed up things we are seeing this year....I mean look at Hanna getting decapitated right now.....we got 3 named storms now.....nothing should surprise any of us......JMO

[Ivanhater]

I know it's too early to ask but could Ike pose a threat to the GOM down the road?

I would say very likely at this point..but we still have plenty of time to watch this..the Euro does bring this in the Gulf in the long range..

Actually some of the models would suggest a track across the GOM and not affecting the U.S.

Whats your point? The question was asked about the possibility of getting in the gulf, and the answer was likely, nothing was said about the US

[ROCK]

Ivan, he was just pointing out that it might just go on into MX...highly unlikely yes but a possibility....I dont think he was trying to be snippy....JMO though...

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS kind of looks like the Canadian on Ike in the Gulf, however, the 6Z GFS has Ike as a very weak system, which would be somewhat immune from feeling troughs in the Westerlies well to the North, and Ike probably wouldn't be a weak system in the Gulf. Things can change, but right now I think the Euro solution might be the right one.

[Ivanhater]

:lol: Ivan, he was just pointing out that it might just go on into MX...highly unlikely yes but a possibility....I dont think he was trying to be snippy....JMO though...

Lol, Just came off with his word "actually" that he was pointing at something I said...could be Im just being snippy after PT this morning and class in a couple hours , in which case move along, lol

[pablolopez26]

Funny how the Galveston Hurricane started somewhere along the region where Ike is right now.