ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like this one will soon go to tropical storm very fast. Nice convection with inflow out of the south.

[KWT]

TCFA, hardly surprising and I agree Matt this will go upto a TS pretty quickly I think.

[bob rulz]

I'm still kind of surprised it wasn't declared a depression at 5, and I'll be even more surprised if it isn't one at 11, despite being at night.

[WmE]

I'm still kind of surprised it wasn't declared a depression at 5, and I'll be even more surprised if it isn't one at 11, despite being at night.

Yeah I agree. I think they'll upgrade at 11pm, or they will wait for visibles and upgrade at 5am if the current trend continues.

[WindRunner]

I'm still kind of surprised it wasn't declared a depression at 5, and I'll be even more surprised if it isn't one at 11, despite being at night.

Yeah I agree. I think they'll upgrade at 11pm, or they will wait for visibles and upgrade at 5am if the current trend continues.

Waiting for visibles would not surprise me, but it would be slightly frustrating, considering that they are already on the conservative side having not upgraded this at 5pm (which I'm fine with, even though it was/is almost certainly a TD). We'll know what they're thinking in another three hours or so...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm still kind of surprised it wasn't declared a depression at 5, and I'll be even more surprised if it isn't one at 11, despite being at night.

Yeah I agree. I think they'll upgrade at 11pm, or they will wait for visibles and upgrade at 5am if the current trend continues.

Waiting for visibles would not surprise me, but it would be slightly frustrating, considering that they are already on the conservative side having not upgraded this at 5pm (which I'm fine with, even though it was/is almost certainly a TD). We'll know what they're thinking in another three hours or so...

I will say their really conservative being that the cape verdes is still west of where this is. We will see what they do tonight.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is likely that an upgrade is pending, based on the fact that the recent QuikSCAT pass completely missed the eastern tropical Atlantic. The preceding pass did not reveal the presence of a closed low level circulation, so the essential confirmation was not available at 5 p.m. However, if additional QuikSCAT data arrives later tonight (or satellite data indicates sustained/increasing convection), an upgrade is plausible, as the earlier QuikSCAT pass indicated varying wind vectors. In addition, recent AMSUB data strongly suggests a closed LLC may be present.

[KWT]

I think the NHC probably just want to see the convection hold just a little longer and also just probably want confirmation of a LLC but once we gt those then we almost certain to see Td10. Still think we should have a TD now.

[bob rulz]

It is likely that an upgrade is pending, based on the fact that the recent QuikSCAT pass completely missed the eastern tropical Atlantic. The preceding pass did not reveal the presence of a closed low level circulation, so the essential confirmation was not available at 5 p.m. However, if additional QuikSCAT data arrives later tonight (or satellite data indicates sustained/increasing convection), an upgrade is plausible, as the earlier QuikSCAT pass indicated varying wind vectors. In addition, recent AMSUB data strongly suggests a closed LLC may be present.

Thanks for the explanation. This is certainly why it wasn't upgraded at 5; nothing to definitely confirm a LLC. QuickSCATs don't ever miss an area twice in a row do they?

[KWT]

Exactly we just need proof of a LLC, I suspect given its presentation there is pretty good chance of this having a LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Convection has been able maintain itself during DMIN and since it was upgraded to invest. I think you may need a LLC for that.

[johngaltfla]

Feeling safer with my 15-9-4 prediction for this year.

I'm feeling safer with 21/11/5 and I wish I was wrong. To the low side! I like forecast better.

If Josephine forms from this tonight the looks on our local mets will turn from exhaustion to a lot worse. These guys all had the "very worried" look about Ike and that is not good when we start thinking about long term possibilities.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010500.GIF

It appears a MLC is getting started, at least I see rotation in the last few frames.

I can't tell anything from this though:

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan its holding the convection fairly well right now and there is weak hints of some banding tryin to get going but its probably a little early for that yet.

[fci]

I'm still kind of surprised it wasn't declared a depression at 5, and I'll be even more surprised if it isn't one at 11, despite being at night.

Yeah I agree. I think they'll upgrade at 11pm, or they will wait for visibles and upgrade at 5am if the current trend continues.

Waiting for visibles would not surprise me, but it would be slightly frustrating, considering that they are already on the conservative side having not upgraded this at 5pm (which I'm fine with, even though it was/is almost certainly a TD). We'll know what they're thinking in another three hours or so...

I am not taking issue with how the NHC handles upgrades.

Having said that they seem to have chosen to be very slow in upgrading systems exhibited by the extended periods of time systems are classified as Invests and how quickly several Invests have become Tropical Depressions and then in the next advisory cycle have been named. Or they take an Invest and rapidly take it from TD to TS.

Dolly was an invest for about a week before quickly being named.
Gustav was a TD for about 1 advisory
Hanna was the same
Ike the same

It seems to be their philosophy which is fine for me.
They have been pretty consistent so we seem to know what to expect
I guess if they were inconsistent I would find an issue with it.

My opinion and again, not finding fault!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The curvature of this thing already has me impressed. If it isn't a TD, or low level TS even, currently. I'd say it is darn close.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010500.GIF

Convection is certainly increasing. A sure sign of organization with this system.

[KWT]

Yeah agreed Hybridstorm its got some pretty good curvature to it, it does seem good to go!

[Hyperstorm]

Josephine, here we go!

Satellite images indicate the system is poised to become a tropical depression as early as the 11 pm advisory, but no later than tomorrow morning. Conditions favor strengthening and could become a tropical storm at anytime tomorrow. I wouldn't rule out a hurricane based on forecast wind patterns. A major hurricane seems unlikely at this time.

Track seems like it will be westward for a few days, followed by a WNW to eventually NW with time. First advisory by the NHC would probably reflect some curvature to the NW at the end of the 5-day forecast. After that, who knows? We may see a building ridge to its north that would force it back westward for a while, but by then it shoud be north of 25N, which should allow the following trough to finally pick it up and throw it into the westerlies.

It looks like we will have our 10th named system of 2008 within the next 24 hours.

SSTs 83*...

These are my personal observations and of course, do not reflect the opinion of Storm2k.