WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby **HenkL** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:35 am

An hour ago AF305 recon flight (0433W) passed the eye with extrapolated SLP 938 mb.
Max wind speeds in NE quad: FL 108 kt (flying on 700 mb level) and SFMR 82 kt.

Chacor · #82 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 9:47 am

So they are flying Sinlaku today. Sweet.

#83 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:34 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 22.3N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 23.4N 122.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 131800UTC 24.0N 121.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 141800UTC 25.4N 120.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

KWT · #84 Postby **KWT** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 2:40 pm

HenkL wrote:An hour ago AF305 recon flight (0433W) passed the eye with extrapolated SLP 938 mb.
Max wind speeds in NE quad: FL 108 kt (flying on 700 mb level) and SFMR 82 kt.

The funny thing is the pressure wind ratio is pretty similar to Ike, though you'd expect that to be the case given this a WPAC system.

#85 Postby **HenkL** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 3:18 pm

URPA12 PGUA 111331
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/13:31:00Z
B. 21 deg 50 min N
124 deg 47 min E
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. 81 kt
E. 306 deg 12 nm
F. 225 deg 113 kt
G. 134 deg 49 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 15 C / 3041 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. CO12-80
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF305 0433W SINLAKU OB 22
MAX FL WIND 113 KT SE QUAD 11:52:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 106 KT NE QUAD 13:46:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 138 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

#86 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 5:09 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 22.6N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 23.5N 122.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 131800UTC 24.0N 121.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 141800UTC 25.4N 120.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

#87 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:04 pm

#88 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:14 pm

That actually looks like a real eye. A blue eye with a pupil.

#89 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:35 pm

Squarethecircle · #90 Postby **Squarethecircle** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 8:50 pm

That's a very nice looking storm (not healthy, but nice).

#91 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:07 pm

#92 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:46 pm

My guess is 120 kt (1-min)/926mb right now with the improved structure.

#93 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Sep 11, 2008 11:28 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 23.2N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 23.9N 122.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 140000UTC 24.5N 121.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 150000UTC 25.8N 121.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

#94 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:14 am

I've arrived in Taiwan and am overnighting in Taoyuan before relocating to the NE coastal areas tomorrow morning.

Wind is already howling here and chucking it down with rain, tomorrow it will be VERY fierce, especially near the coast. More updates here later and on my website http://www.typhoonfury.com

Chacor · #95 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:24 am

Current observations:
Yonagunijima 30 m/s (58 kt) 983.3 hPa

Iriomotejima — a really weird drop in winds (27 m/s to 13 m/s) in the past hour. 977.0 hPa

Ishigakijima 27m/s (52 kt) 982.5 hPa

alan1961 · #96 Postby **alan1961** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:25 am

all the best Typhoon hunter..stay safe :wink:

apocalypt-flyer · #97 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:27 am

Take care Typhoon Hunter. This one looks like (yet again) a nasty Bugger for Taiwan.

Chacor · #98 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:20 am

At midnight local time:

Yonagunijima 35 m/s (68 kt) 978.9 hPa

Iriomotejima station failed after 10 pm local time reading

Ishigakijima 27 m/s (52 kt) 985.7 hPa

Chacor · #99 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:36 am

38 m/s 975.5 hPa on Yonaguni about a half hour ago.

Chacor · #100 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:57 am

Latest hourly update:
TY 0813 (Sinlaku)
Issued at 16:45 UTC, 12 September 2008
<Analyses at 12/16 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N23°40'(23.7°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 370km(200NM)

WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

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