SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[HurricaneRobert]

Not Dean, but it looks like Flossie (or a mirror image of Flossie).

[Squarethecircle]

Heck no, looks a lot stronger than Flossie did.

[Coredesat]

I highly doubt the system has 150 kt winds; the eye is too cold. The reason the JTWC is going with a lower intensity is due to the eye temperature; a warmer eye temperature generally means a more intense cyclone. I'd agree with 150 kt if the eye temperature were around 15C. Currently, it appears the eye temperature is around -10C.

I would say the system had 135 kt winds at its peak; it looks like it has weakened since then.

[Squarethecircle]

I would guess more like 140, now around 125 or so.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 080006

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/08 AT 0000 UTC :
15.1S / 83.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.5 /W 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 114 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 260 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 040 SO: 080 NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/08 12 UTC: 15.4S/83.8E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.0S/84.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4S/85.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.3S/86.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.7S/85.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0+, CI=6.5+
HONDO SEEMS HAVING REACH ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY YESTERDAY, HOWEVER IT
ALWAYS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE, BUT CONVECTION IS LESS COLD.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER SMALL SIZE (CF MICROWAVE IMAGERY) AND
SHOULD THEN QUICKLY REACT TO MODIFICATIONS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
HONDO IS LOCATED BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.
IT HAS TRACKED SLOWLY EASTWARDS DURING THE VERY LAST HOURS, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESTART SOON SOUTHEASTWARDS.HONDO IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEP
ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, THEN QUICKER BEYOND 36 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER BEYOND 48 TO 60 HOURS ON COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

[Chacor]

[Coredesat]

Looks like Hondo is slowly encountering increased shear. The eye's continued to cool.

I also find it odd that Réunion gave an advisory intensity of 114 knots instead of 115.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Remains 115 kt at 06z.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Down to 105kts, min centre pressure still at 925hPa.

WTIO30 FMEE 081224

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 84.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 190
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/85.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.1S/85.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.1S/86.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 19.4S/86.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 20.5S/86.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 21.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+, CI=6.0

EVEN IF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS SLIGHTY DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY,
HONDO IS STILL A POWERFULL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ITS
MORE EASTWARDS MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS MAINTAINED IT OVER
ENOUGH WARM SST. IT SHOULD NOT BE THE CASE ANY LONGER, AS ALL NWP MODELS
AGREE FOR
A MORE SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK IN THE NEXT HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IS FORCAST TO BUILT SOUTHWARDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM.

HONDO SHOULD CONTINUE BE ON A WEAKENING TREND, AS IT SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER SST TOMORROW AND AS NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE SYSTEM
SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AS HONDO WILL
HAVE WEAKER STEERING FLOW.

[Squarethecircle]

The eye is widening and warming, but it's also losing it's shape. Still very compact and looks like a Cat 4.

[HURAKAN]

1200:


1630:


Looks better now than a few hours ago.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 FEB 2008 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 15:30:16 S Lon : 84:23:33 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 919.2mb/124.6kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 35 km

Center Temp : +9.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

That's impressive. Thanks!!!

[Pedro Fernández]

Maybe it is keeping the annular singularity?

[Squarethecircle]

I think it may still be annular, especially since it would not be 125 knots, or anything close, if it wasn't. I believe that its longevity is proof of the fact that it is.

CDO still stretches across only about 180 miles.

Eye temperature is much warmer, and the eye is somewhat larger overall.

The system's structure looks good.

The conditions ahead do not.

Wicked.

[HURAKAN]

Looking great.

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow............. I would say that it is intensifying again ! Compare the last image posted by HURAKAN with the other one at 12Z and 16Z

I love this cyclone

08/1430 UTC 15.5S 84.3E T6.0/6.0 HONDO -- South Indian Ocean