ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Indeed cycloneye even if this doesn't form its just a warm up for the season to come.

[Stormcenter]

Its good news that our friends in the Eastern Caribbean will not have to deal with at one point one model had as a cat 2 moving thru the Northern Leewards.However,the peak of the season is some weeks away so the season has a long way to go.

Yes unfortunately it still has a long long way to go.

[gatorcane]

Indeed cycloneye even if this doesn't form its just a warm up for the season to come.

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I expect a blowup of convection around the center later this evening or tonight. I still give it an 80% chance of development.

[fci]

I think it is time to start looking for the next one

I guarantee you that dozens of members will completely ignore you and continue to press on how great 94L looks and how it will be TD3 at anytime!!!!

[KWT]

Really I will be surprised Gatorcane if it does that heck it looks like the center is in the process of opening up right now at least at lower levels. Until we get rid of that divergence nothing major is going to blow up over the center IMO.
Of course can't rule it out but I agree with Derek I'd go with 10-20% right now.

[Derek Ortt]

Have to hand it to the guidance

it had a 1007-1010mb low forming followed by arrested development... and that seems to have been what occurred

I am going to have to respectfully disagree. The GFDL and HWRF both developed this into a hurricane in their runs yesterday, and the GFS showed a pretty strong-looking system too that persisted for several days into the future. If this system ends up not developing, then I think the models did a pretty bad job, IMO. The only saving grace will be their quick change to dropping the system in recent runs, which if 94L dies out tonight, will have been a change for the better. The only models that really did a "good job" if 94L never develops will be the UKMET and the NOGAPS. Both of those models have been bearish from the get go, unlike the GFS, CMC, GFDL and HWRF which were very bullish initially.

The GFDL and HWRF may not have done the best, but the GFS was spot on. It only had a 1007mb low out of this system.

Now some interpret that as a hurricane... but the model output indicated strong tropical low/weak tropical depression.

[TheRingo]

looks a little better on the last frame. getting filled in more to the west.

[HURAKAN]

Convergance to north and south, but not over 94L.

[KWT]

Ringo thats just an illusion because the sun is going down, the convection is actually wekaneing all over if you look at the IR loops. I think this is on the way out.

[txwatcher91]

Latest IR shows two yellow "thunderstorms" beginning to form in the center of the swirl. We will see if this is a trend or not.

[KWT]

They are tiny little cells and to the WSW of any center, still will see how they develop, going to have to be a lot bigger then that to salvage this system which seems to be on the decaying trend still to me.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I am not going to say the models are wrong but if I remember correctly right before Bertha developed all the models started to back off on her as well and look what happend She is about ready to become a hurricane again for the 2nd time! Only time will tell if this thing develops or not but I wouldn't be so quick to call it dead cause you may just wake up to a developing system!

[HURAKAN]

I still think it's too early to say dead or alive. It's in "watch mode."

[wx247]

I am getting whiplash from all of this back and forth. Anyone have any dramamine?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think it's too early to say dead or alive. It's in "watch mode."

I agree 100%. Until the NHC starts backing off from their 50%+ development chance, it would be silly to call this system "dead". All those top-notch forecasters working over at the Hurricane Center must be seeing something that continues to spark their interest.

The 8pm TWO will be interesting to see.

[Daisy]

Good afternoon, recently registered, though I have been lurking for several years. Can someone please be kind enough to provide a link to view current IR loops. Thanks.

[Blown Away]

They are tiny little cells and to the WSW of any center, still will see how they develop, going to have to be a lot bigger then that to salvage this system which seems to be on the decaying trend still to me.

[img]
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[txwatcher91]

They are tiny little cells and to the WSW of any center, still will see how they develop, going to have to be a lot bigger then that to salvage this system which seems to be on the decaying trend still to me.

While they are tiny, a blowup has to start somewhere and this COULD be the start of one, although they could also die out pretty quickly. There is also a new cell to the SW of the center that has recently popped up. Considering the DMAX is ahead anything could happen tonight. The cells I am looking at are over the center as of 20:45, that image is 30 minutes older and is not as representative of the current IR.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Heres the link to IR Loops

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[RL3AO]

Good afternoon, recently registered, though I have been lurking for several years. Can someone please be kind enough to provide a link to view current IR loops. Thanks.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

More for the invest:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

For the entire Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html