ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Ok so in that case Hanna better start getting itself moving out right away then!

[ronjon]

06Z GFS and now 06Z NAM have both shifted west from their 00Z runs on Hanna. Yes, I know its the NAM but I'm looking at the trend.

[KWT]

Yep the models do seem to be steadily shifting westwards, by the way is that Ike to the east?

[Evil Jeremy]

Models indeed trending west this morning, with the GFS showing a landfall in Florida or Georgia through my untrained eyes.

[caneman]

Here is the 06 run on the UKMET only goes out 48 hours but look how IKE is catching up.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

UKMO actually has it landfalling in Haiti before lifiting out.

I also seem to recall the discussions stating that Ike may end up further north if the UKMO solution is correct about slower movement from Hanna.

[stayawaynow]

06 GFS Landfall Jax

Can you please post the link for the GFS?

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 GFS Landfall Jax

Can you please post the link for the GFS?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[deltadog03]

What sort of timeframe by the way DESTRUCTION5?

Thurs eve

Friday morning/midday?? hehe

[deltadog03]

I am not sure its gonna be that fast...She may sit down there for a time...

[KWT]

Yeah I'm starting to wonder the same Deltadog, I think the UKMO is onto something here, its the ebst model to use in these strong high pressure situations.

As I said this slow motion would not only have an effect on Hanna, but also the lnog term track of Ike...

[jlauderdal]

Yeah I'm starting to wonder the same Deltadog, I think the UKMO is onto something here, its the ebst model to use in these strong high pressure situations.

As I said this slow motion would not only have an effect on Hanna, but also the lnog term track of Ike...

this is brilliant, brit loving the ukmet...

[KWT]

jlauderdal, I've noticed the UKMO is very good when it comes to these strong high pressure set-ups for some, I'm not sure why though!

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal, I've noticed the UKMO is very good when it comes to these strong high pressure set-ups for some, I'm not sure why though!

im kidding of course, the ukmet was very consistent the last few days, lets see what transpires throughout today

[deltadog03]

Hey, I Am an american and I love the EURO...hahaha BTW, 00z euro weakens hanna today, but then begins to move her WNW towards florida, strengthens her pretty rapidly and now has landfall on the middle georgia coastline. MAybe brunswick?? Thats a bit of a shift west as well.

[KWT]

Yep sure is Deelta, it seems like the models are slowly trying to shift the track more to the west then was previously expected.

[jlauderdal]

Hey, I Am an american and I love the EURO...hahaha BTW, 00z euro weakens hanna today, but then begins to move her WNW towards florida, strengthens her pretty rapidly and now has landfall on the middle georgia coastline. MAybe brunswick?? Thats a bit of a shift west as well.

hope your parents do alright and it stays east of their area, these storms are really a bear for the older people...when are you releasing your next forecast? i checked out your forecast yesterday and so far it looks good.

[BOPPA]

Link please - to what you guys are talking about, as far as
UKMO being onto something - thanks

Living in SW Fl. and seeing ALL these storms one after the other, even though none are said to be headed "our" way - makes me want to pack up, get in the car, drive North and
never look back !!!

[deltadog03]

XYno....Maybe you can post some images from last nights 00z euro when you get online today?? I am interested to see what the euro bombs this out too. On the ewall site, can't see any pressures as its one big strong storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

hAVE NOT PLOTTED BUT IT SEEMS WAY wEST? 27.7 79.5 IS CLOSE TO FL

Tue Sep 2 07:35:11 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 021132

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE HANNA 08L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 2



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.3 72.6 200./ 7.0

6 21.2 72.5 132./ 1.3

12 21.4 72.8 309./ 3.3

18 21.6 73.0 319./ 3.1

24 22.0 73.3 322./ 4.8

30 22.5 73.6 326./ 5.4

36 23.5 74.2 329./11.5

42 24.5 75.2 315./13.2

48 24.9 76.4 289./12.1

54 25.6 77.4 306./11.2

60 26.5 78.4 313./12.6

66 27.7 79.5 317./15.7

72 29.1 80.6 323./16.6

78 30.6 81.5 328./17.4

84 32.5 82.1 344./19.2

90 34.5 82.2 356./19.5

96 36.6 81.7 12./22.0

102 39.6 80.4 25./31.5

108 42.3 78.0 41./32.0

114 44.8 74.7 53./34.9

120 47.3 71.2 55./34.9

126 49.4 66.7 65./36.7