ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BigB0882]

To be honest, I'm waiting for people to infiltrate the thread with the "oh this thing is DEAD can we please just focus on Hannah!?" comments.

[tolakram]

Gustav is now in the area where many cat 3 hurricanes have increased in intensity. I'm not convinced we have any clue what Gustav will do today, increase or decrease, because the skill in forecasting intensity seems even worse than I thought (which was bad to begin with). All we can do now is watch and see what happens.



According to the following chart the high heat content ends above 26N.

[inda_iwall]

The dry air is and will continue to erode its organization, has anyone noticed alll of it building and coming in the south side? I bet we are looking at a cat 2 or lower upon landfall, the water is cool, shear and dry air, all working to save N.O. thank goodness. Of course this is just an opinion of a non-met. of course Open for debate also of course.

[Weatherfreak14]

From the Vis. It looks The shear has lessened and i think we will se the SE get better organized over the next 6hrs. May not see that much strengthing but a reorginzation and maybe winds will go up another 10mph in the next 12hrs. Still looking very bad for N.O.

[tallywx]

The dry air is and will continue to erode its organization, has anyone noticed alll of it building and coming in the south side? I bet we are looking at a cat 2 or lower upon landfall, the water is cool, shear and dry air, all working to save N.O. thank goodness. Of course this is just an opinion of a non-met. of course Open for debate also of course.

Let us recall that in 1998 Georges moved over even less of the loop current and more of the cooler water at a slower pace, had a worse internal structure, and was still able to maintain a feisty 110 mph steady-state all the way to landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

The dry air is and will continue to erode its organization, has anyone noticed alll of it building and coming in the south side? I bet we are looking at a cat 2 or lower upon landfall, the water is cool, shear and dry air, all working to save N.O. thank goodness. Of course this is just an opinion of a non-met. of course Open for debate also of course.

Nope. No dry air. Just a lack of organization due to land interaction. Once this starts building the convection back around to the east, then significant and even rapid intensification is possible.

[CronkPSU]

great...looks like we have half like tallywx saying this thing reached its peak and will just continue to weaken while the other half is convinced the eye is clearing and getting better organized and ready for RI...I hope the weakening crowd is right

[LSU2001]

Good Morning Everyone,
I have safetly relocated from Cut Off La. to Baton Rouge and of course I left my puter behind with all my bookmarks and such.
The other day someone posted a link to a whole page of satellite images including the rainbow. could someone please re-post that link, I can't seem to find it.
thanks in advance
Tim

[Innotech]

we have plans for final preparations outside today. Going to church this morning so we can focus all of our time on getting everything outside either tied down or inside the house/shed by early afternoon. Weve got supplies, water, batteries, a generator so we should be fine. I will get in touch with you guys asap after we finish and again after the storm has passed and power returns. To those east of us, you are in our prayers, especially in Houma and Bayou Lafourche area.

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone post an image showing the dry air flowing into the storm?

[dhweather]

Does anyone have the link someone posted for all 4 NOLA tv stations on one page ?

thanks!

[Just Joshing You]

Anyone who says this will only weaken is obviously just a wish caster. Gus is now traveling over waters that are nearly as warm as you will ever get in the Atlantic Basin.

[inda_iwall]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... =wv&anim=2

Does it not look to be invading it? And starting to wrap around? Or is this image deceiving me?

[Weatherfreak000]

This storm will NOT weaken. At best it will maintain it's intensity.


Remember it still has 12 hours over the extreme heat of the Gulf Current left.

[BigB0882]

I see both sides of the weakening/not going to weaken much more coin. It could play out either way so this will be fun to watch.

[Just Joshing You]

I would say it has over 18 hours of very favorable conditions before it will slowly weaken. Also, as it will be bombing out before the slow weakening trend, who knows.. it may never get a chance for an EWRC.

[tallywx]

great...looks like we have half like tallywx saying this thing reached its peak and will just continue to weaken while the other half is convinced the eye is clearing and getting better organized and ready for RI...I hope the weakening crowd is right

Just to clarify, I DON'T think this will continue to weaken. I think at worst it maintains its current intensity to landfall. The current structure reminds me of Fran or Isabel going into North Carolina, where a storm broadens its inner core but maintains marginal category 3 strength to landfall in the face of cooler, but not cold, sea surface temperatures. I think this could pick up some steam too. I wouldn't predict it to make it back to 140 mph, but borderline 3/4 is certainly a possibility.

[O Town]

Good Morning Everyone,
I have safetly relocated from Cut Off La. to Baton Rouge and of course I left my puter behind with all my bookmarks and such.
The other day someone posted a link to a whole page of satellite images including the rainbow. could someone please re-post that link, I can't seem to find it.
thanks in advance
Tim

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Glad to hear you evacuated.

[BigB0882]

Would anyone mind explaining the term "bombing out?" I've heard it mentioned many times but do not know yet what it means.

[dhweather]

Would anyone mind explaining the term "bombing out?" I've heard it mentioned many times but do not know yet what it means.

Rapid intensification. The barometric pressure drops rapidly (bombing out) and the winds increase subsequently.