ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[seahawkjd]

Just wondering, is Joe Bastardi still calling for it to get back over water and head towards NC? Is there any merit to that at all or is it going to stay inland? Could definetely bring some much needed rain if it tracked through the central / western parts of SC and NC.

[Sanibel]

That little curl going into the center on the north side of the "eye" you can see on radar is an intensification flag.

[gatorcane]

135800 2327N 08118W 8423 01520 0033 +165 +165 191009 010 008 003 00
135830 2326N 08117W 8432 01513 0033 +168 +168 183013 014 008 004 00
135900 2326N 08115W 8429 01515 0033 +168 +168 178016 017 005 004 00

extrapolated 1003 mb. Fay is not intensifying at the moment.

Not at the moment but I do see Fay looking better on SAT imagery analysis by the hour and it should be intensifying soon.

[Thunder44]

By looking at the last recon report, Fay's center might be near 23.3N & 81.3W

i think you may be correct, you can see this spinning between marathon and keywest just north of cuba, also interesting to note the large rotation extends ene another 60 miles it appears. and all the rain is to the North and east of the little vortex between marathon and kyw

although i would like for them to sample the pressures near 24 / 80.8 as well

we may see the center build back toward the east as it organizes a bit better, should the shear let up IMO

I'm don't think they fixed a center yet. I'm wondering by looking at latest visible if Fay still has closed surface circulation now. It appears to be trying reform to the NE on satellite and radar imagery.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Here is a great vis sat loop....

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

That is a nice loop, thanks.

Outflow and some convection is expanding to the west and northwest.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MY GOD!!! What happened to it? Last night it had a tight central core and it looked like it may be approaching hurricane by this time. But its not and it has an elongated circulation and not much deep convection on the center. It almost to me doesnt even look fully tropical, with a very lopsided system to the east. How is it still on land anyway? When it appeared to be moving nnw last night it looked like it was almost to the northern coast of cuba. ugh...too many questions I know, but im just so confused!

Hurricane Gabrielle was also a pretty lopsided storm back in September 2001, yet it still managed to make it up to 70-75mph prior to landfall...

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/ra ... rielle.gif

[NDG]

135800 2327N 08118W 8423 01520 0033 +165 +165 191009 010 008 003 00
135830 2326N 08117W 8432 01513 0033 +168 +168 183013 014 008 004 00
135900 2326N 08115W 8429 01515 0033 +168 +168 178016 017 005 004 00

extrapolated 1003 mb. Fay is not intensifying at the moment.

Located near 23.4N & 81.3W

I am sure that the NHC update will go by continuity and say something like 23.5 & 81.4W

[NEXRAD]

MY GOD!!! What happened to it? Last night it had a tight central core and it looked like it may be approaching hurricane by this time. But its not and it has an elongated circulation and not much deep convection on the center. It almost to me doesnt even look fully tropical, with a very lopsided system to the east. How is it still on land anyway? When it appeared to be moving nnw last night it looked like it was almost to the northern coast of cuba. ugh...too many questions I know, but im just so confused!

Well, a partial explanation is that last night we were looking at the circulation center mostly on long range (Key West) radar, which was scanning the storm's mid-levels. Also, I've noticed a general convective down-trend with many tropical cyclones as they begin to interact more with troughs (e.g., 2004 Frances). Typically they seem to recover, however, and Fay's upper level conditions are better than they were yesterday at this time.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

Just now being able to check computer after a couple of
days - any advise?

Yes. Follow official sources with close hurricanes.


(off the record): I think this might not get too strong and could go in a little east. I'm sticking with ULL inhibition.

[tolakram]

The center looks to be in the same place (though this is certainly looking more at the mid levels still). Moving N/NW. I see storms moving north where I think the right side of the center is which is how I come to the conclusion that the center is still where expected.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

well your wrong because its already up to 60mph also latest microwave passes show a eye wall forming.

[gatorcane]

Just now being able to check computer after a couple of
days - any advise?

Yes. Follow official sources with close hurricanes.


(off the record): I think this might not get too strong and could go in a little east. I'm sticking with ULL inhibition.

Sanibel I checked the forecast for Ft. Myers from NWS...maybe putting up shutters is not a bad idea:

Tuesday: Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. East wind 55 to 65 mph becoming south southeast between 55 and 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1.8506&e=1

[cpdaman]

it's pouring cats and dogs in SE palm beach county, and certainly not too windy now.

watching to see if the rainbands can consolidate and get closer to the recon fixed center.

[artist]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

[Iune]

Is that a eye I see?

[Iune]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

Katrina weakened over the Everglades.

[NDG]

By looking at the last recon report, Fay's center might be near 23.3N & 81.3W

i think you may be correct, you can see this spinning between marathon and keywest just north of cuba, also interesting to note the large rotation extends ene another 60 miles it appears. and all the rain is to the North and east of the little vortex between marathon and kyw

although i would like for them to sample the pressures near 24 / 80.8 as well

we may see the center build back toward the east as it organizes a bit better, should the shear let up IMO

I'm don't think they fixed a center yet. I'm wondering by looking at latest visible if Fay still has closed surface circulation now. It appears to be trying reform to the NE on satellite and radar imagery.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They found a nice wind shift so that was the center they came through.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, that muscular core band is shouting hurricane. All a matter of track now.

[xironman]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her

The upper low is staying put, as Fay moves north it becomes less of an impedance. Check out the water vapor, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html, it is pretty clear from that.

[floridah]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

Katrina weakened over the Everglades.

Irene strengthened