ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[capepoint]

:uarrow:

Looks like a slight East adjustment of the track is in store with landfall south of Tampa Bay now --- good news for that area if that verifies.

For what its worth, TWC just said Tampa area landfall was unlikely now. yeah, I know, I dont usually put much faith in TWC, but it's interesting none the less.

[tolakram]

Boy, can you tell a hurricane warning has been issued? NHC site is dead, storm2k is slow but survives.

[Bocadude85]

about to get a nasty squall here.. hear the thunder rumbling in the distance

[AdamFirst]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Key West radar looks like its showing two "eye" like features...make up your mind, Fay!

[gatorcane]

BocaDude, yes I see the squall on this radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[NEXRAD]

about to get a nasty squall here.. hear the thunder rumbling in the distance

Yes indeed, the squall moving NW towards SE Palm Beach County is particularly potent right now and shows signs of bowing. There will likely be some quick strong gusts with this one, along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

indeed I would expect NWS to start issuing tornado watches for SE metro FL over the next several hours....look for them

[fci]

With that Upper Level Low basically tailgating her, Fay should remain a tropical storm and may even be a weak tropical storm when impacting Florida...Fay is also moving faster and should not be over water for much longer if models keep trending east...in maybe 12 hours all this speculation will cease as Fay makes landfall as a laughable 55mph sheared tropical storm somewhere in the everglades.

correct me if i'm wrong

if she hits the everglades she will probably intensify quickly as most do that hit them.

Katrina weakened over the Everglades.

Katrina entered Florida with 70 MPH winds and exited the west coast with 85 MPH winds.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200511.asp

Since the Everglades is a swamp, very wet; it does not cause much weakening and in the case of Katrina it actually aided in her intensification.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon already finding a pressure of 1003.6 and they aren't to the center yet. Next observation will be at the center.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Key West radar looks like its showing two "eye" like features...make up your mind, Fay!

She is trying to Stack...Thats a given..

[DESTRUCTION5]

about to get a nasty squall here.. hear the thunder rumbling in the distance

Yes indeed, the squall moving NW towards SE Palm Beach County is particularly potent right now and shows signs of bowing. There will likely be some quick strong gusts with this one, along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

- Jay

We just Got Blasted here in Tequesta...Id estimate 40MPH gusts

[NDG]

I am sure the Keys will experience hurricane force winds in gusts.

[NEXRAD]

indeed I would expect NWS to start issuing tornado watches for SE metro FL over the next several hours....look for them

The helicity values aren't too high across South Florida or the Keys just yet. I wanted to see if the SPC put out any meso-discussions, but the SPC site doesn't seem to be working either.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

151000 2340N 08129W 8429 01513 0032 +172 +172 152001 002 008 004 00

1003 mb. Nothing new.

[fci]

indeed I would expect NWS to start issuing tornado watches for SE metro FL over the next several hours....look for them

Good point.
I am actually surprised that we are not yet under a Tornado Watch.

[gatorcane]

one thing I'd like to point out. This rain is EXCELLENT news for Lake Okeechobie. I think we may be above normal after Fay passes.....

[NEXRAD]

indeed I would expect NWS to start issuing tornado watches for SE metro FL over the next several hours....look for them

Good point.
I am actually surprised that we are not yet under a Tornado Watch.

There's not much rotation with the storm cells over or near South Florida just yet. It'll be another few hours before the winds aloft start to become more condusive to rotating cells.

- Jay

[gtsmith]

There was a dry patch between the first bands that came through an hour or so ago...now that is closing up with the second squall line just over Boca now...

[Dean4Storms]

Everybody stay safe down there and remember that Tornado's will probably be the biggest threat today along with some heavy rain and of course tonight and into tomorrow along with the landfall are probably on the east and SE side of that landfall where the onshore winds will cause the highest surge/winds.

[Blown Away]

about to get a nasty squall here.. hear the thunder rumbling in the distance

Yes indeed, the squall moving NW towards SE Palm Beach County is particularly potent right now and shows signs of bowing. There will likely be some quick strong gusts with this one, along with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

- Jay

We just Got Blasted here in Tequesta...Id estimate 40MPH gusts

Yeah, that was a good squall. I measured a 28mph gust.