ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I'm in SETX and am looking at this mandatory evac and wondering if it's REALLY necessary...

What do y'all see with the strength and timing of the ridge? Will it be down and strong enough to possible push Gustav west before landfall? Even if it's pushed west after landfall, do y'all think it will bring it close enough to my area that I should evacuate? (My decision will not totally be based on y'all's answers... I'm looking at all information. I just want opinions. Pros? Anybody?)

I'm in north Beaumont wondering the same thing for the time being. But note that my car & truck is ready to go and can be out the driveway in 30 minutes if need be, but I'm waiting to get more information for now.

In my opinion there is no need to evacuate in Southeast Texas. In the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange areas we can expect winds of maybe 30-40 mph in gusts Monday and Monday evening. Rainfall totals will likely be light to moderate with the heavy rains to our northeast.

[Evac3]

I'm in SETX and am looking at this mandatory evac and wondering if it's REALLY necessary...

What do y'all see with the strength and timing of the ridge? Will it be down and strong enough to possible push Gustav west before landfall? Even if it's pushed west after landfall, do y'all think it will bring it close enough to my area that I should evacuate? (My decision will not totally be based on y'all's answers... I'm looking at all information. I just want opinions. Pros? Anybody?)

I'm in north Beaumont wondering the same thing for the time being. But note that my car & truck is ready to go and can be out the driveway in 30 minutes if need be, but I'm waiting to get more information for now.

I know I don't wanna be driving for who knows how long up north right into even worse weather than we'd get here. They have flash floods and tornadoes up there.

[Jason_B]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Do us a favor and just stop posting. Thanks.

[ColdFusion]

I distinctly remember the weather people calling Frederic the "storm of the century" back when it was closing in on Mobile. I was only 6 years old, but I can still hear those words coming from the radio. And, although it "only" hit as a borderline Cat 3/4...FOR MOBILE, IT WAS THE STORM OF THE CENTURY

But from the NHC discussion just released:

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS
MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS

If the window for strengthening is closing, then the worst-case scenarios should not occur.

[rockyman]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is no way that is "just a Category 1"

[Sabanic]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.
This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Okay . . .

[Evac3]

I'm in SETX and am looking at this mandatory evac and wondering if it's REALLY necessary...

What do y'all see with the strength and timing of the ridge? Will it be down and strong enough to possible push Gustav west before landfall? Even if it's pushed west after landfall, do y'all think it will bring it close enough to my area that I should evacuate? (My decision will not totally be based on y'all's answers... I'm looking at all information. I just want opinions. Pros? Anybody?)

I'm in north Beaumont wondering the same thing for the time being. But note that my car & truck is ready to go and can be out the driveway in 30 minutes if need be, but I'm waiting to get more information for now.

In my opinion there is no need to evacuate in Southeast Texas. In the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange areas we can expect winds of maybe 30-40 mph in gusts Monday and Monday evening. Rainfall totals will likely be light to moderate with the heavy rains to our northeast.

Thanks so much, Greg. I think I agree. What is the chance of this "slide" to the west? Nothing to be really concerned about?

[rockyman]

We have a Category 3 over the loop current at the height of the hurricane season heading in the direction of New Orleans. Enough said.

[njweather]

The NHC is forecasting a 115kt, Cat. 4 near landfall. They've noted all the current weaknesses and much more.

The day before yesterday, many on this forum were forecasting Gustav to become an open-wave or a low end Cat 1/2, and just as the NHC predicted, it exploded into a Cat 4.

Now again, many here are suggesting this thing will fall apart...

For those who are in the storm's path, please please please trust the NHC.

[MGC]

Lets all hope this weakening trend continues. Gustav does look ragged on the satellite loop. With any luck Gus will likely be a Cat-2 at landfall. Cuba must have disrupted the core somehow plus the shear is beating him up. Well, gotta get the property secured, I'm just expecting TS conditions here.....MGC

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Thanks so much, Greg. I think I agree. What is the chance of this "slide" to the west? Nothing to be really concerned about?

I think the risk of a more west-northwest track is rather likely but that should be well after landfall. If the more west-northwest track develops, the remnant circulation should move into East and Northeast Texas Tuesday and Wednesday producing heavy rains.

[ColdFusion]

The NHC is forecasting a 115kt, Cat. 4 near landfall. They've noted all the current weaknesses and much more.

The day before yesterday, many on this forum were forecasting Gustav to become an open-wave or a low end Cat 1/2, and just as the NHC predicted, it exploded into a Cat 4.

Now again, many here are suggesting this thing will fall apart...

For those who are in the storm's path, please please please trust the NHC.

No no. Not fall apart, just not become the monster that it looked like it was going to be yesterday.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks to Gustav so far today I have received 0.86 inches of rain and a gust of 26 mph. Since yesterday the rainfall stands at 1.40 inches.

[Jason_B]

Problem is nobody has any patience, it's just like those invests we have and if they don't explode into a hurricane within the hour people just write them off only for it to develop days later. Same case here, Gustav has had a rough morning and people are just giving up...despite the fact it has nearly 24 more hours over warm water and how many times have we seen a storm bomb in the Gulf prior to landfall? It's ridiculous.

[HURAKAN]

No no. Not fall apart, just not become the monster that it looked like it was going to be yesterday.

Yesterday the NHC was forecasting a Cat. 4 at landfall. Today they are forecasting a Cat. 4 at landfall.

[Hurricaneman13]

I agree. And even if this does weaken, it will still cause lots of rain that could be dangerous especially if it slows down over land. When I saw Gustav emerging from Haiti, I thought for sure that it was gonna be downgraded to a tropical depression or even degenerate into a tropical wave. But then it exploded into a strong Cat 4 major hurricane with winds of 150 mph and pressure somewhere between 935 and 941 millibars.

[dhweather]

It looks like the outflow is slightly improving in the southern part of the storm now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


Perhaps the dry air entrainment is about to cease? Maybe that's what NHC based their intensity forecast on.

[Innotech]

Cat 2 or cat 4, its going by my house so it is going to be taken seriously regardless. People in Louisiana dont care what category this thing is, and thankfully they arent taking chances. Irresponsible posting like saying it wont be much of a threat is NOT welcome right now. Low lying areas are affected in dangerous ways regardless of what category it makes landfall at and it will bring cat 3-4 storm surge with it regardless of how powerful it is on the coast. We are back from church and making final preparations right now so Ill see you guys later/

[tallywx]

We have a Category 3 over the loop current at the height of the hurricane season heading in the direction of New Orleans. Enough said.

Meteorologically speaking - no, we don't have a cat 3 over the loop current, unless you can magically place the storm 2 degrees to the southwest and explain to me how 91 kt flight level winds could magically INCREASE to 100 kt+ at the surface in a storm with paltry convection.

As for the NHC forecast, their numbers suggest restrengthening, but they give no reason why except to follow some model output from models that were initialized far too strong in intensity. Also, if they were to drop the 115 kt prediction any lower, people WOULD stop evacuating, and they obviously don't want this to occur. So yes, I believe that if this forecast were being made for the meteorological community alone as a purely scientific matter, they would probably set the initial intensity at 80-85 kt and predict 90 kt at landfall.

[dixiebreeze]

Observations - Radial Search
Observations near Hurricane Gustav - position as of 08/31 1500 GMT
Distance is entered as nautical miles or kilometers depending on whether you choose English or Metric.

Latitude: (e.g. 30.5N or 30 30 0 N or 30 30 N)

Longitude: (e.g. 90W or 90 0 0 W or 90 0 W)

Unit of Measure: English Metric Distance (nautical miles/kilometers):

Observation Type: All Ship/Drifting Buoy Time: current t-1 hour past hour t-2 hours past 2 hours t-3 hours past 3 hours t-4 hours past 4 hours t-5 hours past 5 hours t-6 hours past 6 hours t-7 hours past 7 hours t-8 hours past 8 hours t-9 hours past 9 hours t-10 hours past 10 hours t-11 hours past 11 hours t-12 hours past 12 hours t-13 hours t-14 hours t-15 hours t-16 hours t-17 hours t-18 hours t-19 hours t-20 hours t-21 hours t-22 hours t-23 hours

3 observations from 08/31/2008 1200 GMT to 08/31/2008 1520 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec °T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42003 B 1449 25.91 -85.39 49 42 100 52.4 68.0 33.8 14 11.3 124 29.34 -0.13 79.2 84.0 79.2 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- 0.00 0.0 - 21.65 10.8 ESE STEEP
1 observations reported for 1400 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec °T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42003 B 1349 25.91 -85.39 49 42 80 46.6 58.3 30.5 14 10.4 133 29.38 -0.11 78.8 84.2 77.7 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- 0.00 0.0 - 21.65 10.8 ESE STEEP
1 observations reported for 1300 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F mi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec °T
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42003 B 1249 25.91 -85.39 49 42 90 40.8 58.3 24.6 13 9.7 130 29.43 -0.08 81.7 84.6 78.4 - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- 0.00 0.0 - 21.65 10.8 ESE STEEP
1 observations reported for 1200 GMT

1 B = Buoy, C = C-MAN Station, D = Drifting Buoy, S = Ship, O = Other

Description of Observation Data