ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Category 5]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Would you care to support this outrageous claim?

[tallywx]

Would you care to support this outrageous claim?

Certainly. 91 kt flight level winds in a storm without deep convection should apply at most an 85% reduction to the surface. 91kt * 0.85 = 77.35 kts ---> round up to 80 kts. Category 1.

[soonertwister]

A few minutes ago there was a news report that additional mandatory evacuations had been ordered for SE Texas along the coast, which is completely puzzling to me, since all hurricane watches for Texas have been dropped.

Yeah I hear Hardin County Texas now has mandatory evacuations, but where are you seeing that warnings have been dropped? I see the same TS Warnings & Hurricane Watches for southeast Texas that have been up all morning.

Since 5 am the hurricane warning was dropped for all of the Texas coast and a small portion of the western Louisiana coast. They only tropical storm warnings now.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 4.5673&e=0

[dixiebreeze]

262 miles south of Panama City, Fla. -- check that pressure:

Conditions at 42003 as of
(9:49 am CDT)
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 52.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 33.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 11.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 124 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.34 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.13 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 79.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
10:40 am E ( 95 deg ) 53.2 kts
10:30 am E ( 98 deg ) 50.3 kts
10:20 am E ( 92 deg ) 50.1 kts
10:10 am E ( 92 deg ) 47.4 kts
10:00 am E ( 91 deg ) 48.0 kts
9:50 am E ( 83 deg ) 47.2 kts

Previous observations MM DD TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL
psu VIS
mi TIDE
ft
08 31 8:49 am E 46.6 58.3 30.5 14 10.4 SE 29.38 -0.11 78.8 84.2 77.7 - - -
08 31 7:49 am E 40.8 58.3 24.6 13 9.7 SE 29.43 -0.08 81.7 84.6 78.4 -

[Category 5]

Would you care to support this outrageous claim?

Certainly. 91 kt flight level winds in a storm without deep convection should apply at most an 85% reduction to the surface. 91kt * 0.85 = 77.35 kts ---> round up to 80 kts. Category 1.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[superfly]

Given the speed of the storm, I'd say it has around 6-8 hours to do any significant amount of re-strengthening. However, this does not look likely given the current structure of the storm and the shear it is under.

[shah8]

Okay, the latest one finally shows some wrapping around pretty far around the southern rim. The western rim shows a spot of super low temps. Not quite a GO, but almost there, I think

[superfly]

Would you care to support this outrageous claim?

Certainly. 91 kt flight level winds in a storm without deep convection should apply at most an 85% reduction to the surface. 91kt * 0.85 = 77.35 kts ---> round up to 80 kts. Category 1.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

The 91 kts flight level was found in the NE quad where the convection is much weaker than the SW quad.

[HURAKAN]

If you live in the northern Gulf coast, and this doesn't scare you, then there is something wrong with you.

[soonertwister]

We have a Category 3 over the loop current at the height of the hurricane season heading in the direction of New Orleans. Enough said.

Meteorologically speaking - no, we don't have a cat 3 over the loop current, unless you can magically place the storm 2 degrees to the southwest and explain to me how 91 kt flight level winds could magically INCREASE to 100 kt+ at the surface in a storm with paltry convection.

As for the NHC forecast, their numbers suggest restrengthening, but they give no reason why except to follow some model output from models that were initialized far too strong in intensity. Also, if they were to drop the 115 kt prediction any lower, people WOULD stop evacuating, and they obviously don't want this to occur. So yes, I believe that if this forecast were being made for the meteorological community alone as a purely scientific matter, they would probably set the initial intensity at 80-85 kt and predict 90 kt at landfall.

I think that last VDM came too late to be included in the latest advisory package. I think they used this one from a little bit earlier instead, which found 118 kt FL winds:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 311115.txt

[tallywx]

Would you care to support this outrageous claim?

Certainly. 91 kt flight level winds in a storm without deep convection should apply at most an 85% reduction to the surface. 91kt * 0.85 = 77.35 kts ---> round up to 80 kts. Category 1.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

The 91 kts was found in the NE quad., where there isn't deep convection. That convection on the west side was producing ~80 kts flight level winds. So even assuming a 100% conversion in that bit of deep convection still calculates out to 80 kts. Again, category 1.

[feederband]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I put this up for the most Irresponsible post award..

[SoupBone]

Hurakan I'm just trying to sort through the BS. The NOAA vortex message supported a Cat 1? The storm looks worse on radar with no discernable eye. I'm just not following.

[feederband]

Hilarious. Another weakening GOM storm, another case of NHC holding its intensity two categories too high. Just admit it's weakening now to save the million gallons of oil it's taking for these people to unnecessarily evacuate the city. Even if the storm were to restrengthen two categories to a cat 3, the Southern levees are built to withstand that. New Orleans will see no more wind from this than they saw from Hurricane Andrew, in my unprofessional opinion.

This post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is my personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I put this up for the most Irresponsible post award..

[Recurve]

Really, discussion of the NHC advisories being "wrong" on wind speed for some purpose other than their best effort at reporting accurately on the storm?

Gosh, I don't believe I've ever heard that on Storm2K before.

There should be a thread in Talkin Tropics on accuracy/motivation of NHC reports, in case anyone's spoiling for a fight. A respectful one, of course.

It's important to keep in mind that because of the track, catastrophic flooding in different parts of Louisiana than with Katrina is forecast.
And as we know, even a landfalling TS kills people with tornadoes and trees falling on houses. If Gustav is labeled a Cat 2 at landfall, the hydrodynamics of the Louisiana coast can still spell disaster. And for now the forecast is still for much worse.

[HURAKAN]

Members and guests, please listen to the NHC, the NWS, and your local authorities.

[Category 5]

The 91 kts was found in the NE quad., where there isn't deep convection. That convection on the west side was producing ~80 kts flight level winds. So even assuming a 100% conversion in that bit of deep convection still calculates out to 80 kts. Again, category 1.

Then send the NHC a complaint if it makes you feel better, but it's a category 3 until they say otherwise. But for now, stop misleading people please.

[Jason_B]

Conditions will start to deteriorate along the Gulf coast as soon as this afternoon it looks like. Gustav is really bookin it now.

[Frank2]

Good morning everyone...

I don't think anyone will critize the NHC - again, it's intensity forecasting that all meteorologists struggle with - had Gustav been 100 miles further to the west, it would have missed Cuba entirely and would likely still be a Cat 4 - or even a Cat 5...

Those who evacuated would be glad to return home - and still find it there, so, though it's stressful to evacuate (don't I know), it's always better when nothing serious happens, versus what could happen...

This reminds me of infamous Hurricane Gilbert (1988), that had the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin (888 mb) - once it made landfall on the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, though forecasters feared it would reintensify to a Cat 5 and strike Texas, it never did, only managing Cat 3 status once it reached northern Mexico...

Every hurricane is different...

Frank

[inda_iwall]

Heres a question? Where are the strongest winds found in a TC? NE I believe. What does it matter where the convection is, the winds are still the strongest in the NE. the convection will only fuel the overall storm, not just a particular quadrant correct? People are really grasping to keep this thing a monster, it just isnt, and prob will not be. It will be nasty, but not a storm of the century by any means. It is struggling to retain its hype.