ATL: IKE Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

that's wnw.
940.5 and still only a 96kt FL wind. Ike's still got some organizing to do.

That's quite a testament to Ike's size. 940.5 mb is pretty intense, so you know it must be spread out abnormally (i.e. a very large envelope) if it is only creating 85-90 kt sfc winds. Of course, the double eyewall structure is weakening the most intense pressure gradient that's usually located in the eyewall region, but it's still something.

Yes. 940.5mb is pretty much unheard of in a cat2. But this is probably because the core is not that well organized yet. This thing is pretty much a shoe-in to cat4 based on that pressure (surpassing gustav's pressure when peak winds were at 150mph), and its really just a matter of when the storm begins to organize. It seems like once this outer eyewall takes control, that tiny core in the middle will fall apart and the outer core will expand quite nicely.

[superdeluxe]

Pressure 940.5..........

During a live interview a few minutes ago on HurricaneCity.com, Jeff Masters said there's a 30 to 50 percent chance that Ike will continue to strengthen all the way to landfall. He said the "Wilma-like" storm is so large that it will probably shield itself from any shear or dry air that might try to weaken it prior to landfall.

- MHurricanes

MH, i know you said this was live, but is there a archived link to this on his website?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect the strengthening should stop and reverse (temporarily) relatively soon. The strengthening depends on that inner wall but it's living on borrowed time. It should start fragmenting relatively soon and the pressure will go up. Once the inner wall is gone it will resume strengthening again. Fractured walls can really drain the strength of a storm - Rita started an ERC in the gulf and never got her walls intact afterwards. She pretty much lost pressure the whole time, even with powerful convection.

Ike's winds are very low for the pressure because a) it's huge and b) it's going through an ERC. Things like this have happened before. Long ago, they used to use pressure to rank hurricanes but one time there was a hurricane with something like 940 pressure and barely hurricane winds. After that they switched to ranking on wind.

One thing to note is that the outter eye wall is about as strong as the inner eye. So I don't expect a drop off of winds, maybe a pressure rise.

[bayoubebe]

Let's get back on point and ignore the anti-Texas bias...it is like water off a duck's back. We are used to it-doesn't phase us. Bottom line is NOW and what Ike is doing wherever he goes.

Unfair statement. You are saying to get back to what Ike is doing, but IMO you are stirring the pot in the first half of your statement.
I"ve seen worse bias against other states on this forum.

I definitely see some kind of movement/wobble to the West.
It's eerie how close Ike is to the gulf states.

[jasons2k]

They must evacuate Galveston. Now. Period.

That's all I will say about the matter.

[Sabanic]

I know someone ( SC ) may get aggravated with me for posting this, and asking this question, but kind of regional so I'll ask anyway. There is still a considerable weakness if I am looking at this right, and I remember someone saying this morning it would be gone more than likely by this afternoon. It's still there. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me as to what effects this is having on Ike other than probably making him go NW. Thanks

[crazycajuncane]

If I were on Galveston Island I would take it upon myself to leave. Forget a mandatory evacuation or not. I've been there several times for work and it's a nice place. I know for sure we're evacuating our Creole base in the morning. I am sure Galveston and Rockport are going to be taken care of as well.

[deltadog03]

If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....

[dwg71]

sabanic, its interacting with ridge now, notice a more western motion the last two hours.

[bayoubebe]

They must evacuate Galveston. Now. Period.

That's all I will say about the matter.

I really hope ALL those on the Texas coast in the cone will evacuate if at all possibile, whether under orders or not. I'd hate to see someone just wait and wait and take a chance with this massive of a storm.
Be safe people!

[CronkPSU]

well some people are taking it seriously....UT/Ark football game for Saturday has been moved to Sept 27th

[SMNederlandTX]

I agree. This is ridiculous. What are they waiting for? The longer they wait, the worse it is going to be, if they do not issue one people may think it will be ok to stay and then wish they hadn't...but it will be too late.

They must evacuate Galveston. Now. Period.

That's all I will say about the matter.

[terrapintransit]

I know someone ( SC ) may get aggravated with me for posting this, and asking this question, but kind of regional so I'll ask anyway. There is still a considerable weakness if I am looking at this right, and I remember someone saying this morning it would be gone more than likely by this afternoon. It's still there. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me as to what effects this is having on Ike other than probably making him go NW. Thanks

No comment.

The weakness was just booted east so IKE should be starting the wnw turn very shortly....

[Steve]

Don't say that delta. There's no way out.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

sabanic, its interacting with ridge now, notice a more western motion the last two hours.

Thanks for the explanation dwg71.

[Ixolib]

Derek's newest forecast is not good, not good at all for Houston, I hope people have taken this storm seriously

Well, since so many seem to love his input, I surely do wish he - and others like him - would bring much more attention to the surge potential than they do to the wind potential.

And I mean really nail it down into people's minds with a huge hammer!!!

Wind is generally survivable, surge is generally not.

At least he did make note that a bigger cane will bring more surge than a similar, but smaller storm. So, good on him for that.

The pro-mets should start an IKE SURGE THREAD and give extreme credence to that issue in no uncertain terms!!!!! Now THAT would be a great benefit to the members here....

[cheezyWXguy]

Well it definitely now looks like the inner eyewall is collapsing and that the cdo is trying to expand. If this expands to a large strength over the next day or so as the core tightens, then watch for a significant increase in winds. A storm can only stay at 100mph with a pressure of 940mb for so long..

[6SpeedTA95]

well some people are taking it seriously....UT/Ark football game for Saturday has been moved to Sept 27th

Good that gives texas less prep time for Oklahoma!

[Sabanic]

I know someone ( SC ) may get aggravated with me for posting this, and asking this question, but kind of regional so I'll ask anyway. There is still a considerable weakness if I am looking at this right, and I remember someone saying this morning it would be gone more than likely by this afternoon. It's still there. Anyone care to shed some light on this for me as to what effects this is having on Ike other than probably making him go NW. Thanks

No comment.

The weakness was just booted east so IKE should be starting the wnw turn very shortly....

PIC ??

[AL Chili Pepper]

If that steering is right it will have to move generally NW.....Thats why I havn't changed my map for landfall yet....

uhhh....where's your map?