ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

The thing to note is that whilst recon did indeed suggest a NW motion the overall circulation of Fay seems to be pointing towards the north.

Big burst of convection further east may cause some pulling of the LLC towards the east but thus far NW/NNW motion is a good bet.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Is the NHC site down?

I can't get to anything in the NOAA domain - not NCEP, not HPC, not NHC, not even the NOAA home page.

Radar sites still working:

http://www.radar.weather.gov

[Iune]

Is the NHC site down?

I can't get to anything in the NOAA domain - not NCEP, not HPC, not NHC, not even the NOAA home page.

It's been this way since just after 11 a.m.! Maybe one of two things,

1) To Much Traffic!
2) Fay!

If it is 2 then Fay doesn't want anyone to know something!!!

[xironman]

ULL seems to have back down a bit by watching the cirrus. If it backs down a bit more it turns from friend to foe.

[Iune]

Is the NHC site down?

I can't get to anything in the NOAA domain - not NCEP, not HPC, not NHC, not even the NOAA home page.

Radar sites still working:

http://www.radar.weather.gov

Not Anymore!

[gatorcane]

Winds on the Atlantic side in the Florida Keys are gradually increasing with Tropical strom force winds off of Marathon, FL

Sand Key Missing NE 26G/28 kts
Sombrero Key Missing E 28G/31 kts
Long Key 84 E 25G/30 kts
Molasses Reef 86 E 30G/35 kts

[Iune]

NHC is back up!!!

[Category 5]

Marathon gusting close to tropical storm force.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Marathon.html

[JonathanBelles]

I thought Id post this here too, Don Gremaise is in Punta Gorda again!!

[Blown Away]

THe local Mets keep saying an East shift to the track seems likely, is it more likely Fay will track a little more N-NE or N-NW with this slowdown?

[GreenSky]

Can someone post a wooorrrrrkkkkiiiinnnngggg IR loop of FAY?!

I AM DYING HERE WAITING FOR SOMETHING TO LOAD....

I might just pull out my teeth if this keeps up

[gatorcane]

well folks I have been suggesting a more east shift for several days even bringing CLIMO into the discussion and it does appear it is coming to fruition.

SE Florida may just feel the brunt of this system if trends continue (SE FL is on the dirty side)

[KWT]

Well the thing to note is the slowdown *may* not be anything to do with slowing down and just the first signs of it trying to get stacked up again, because the mid level rotation is displaced a fair bit to the NE of the LLC and so we may see the start of movement towards the MLC which is wrapping well.

[johngaltfla]

If I didn't know any better (and I probably don't), Fay has stalled, or shown a slight NE drift, over the last hour.

Check out the excellent recon thread here. Last two positions still indicate a 335 motion (NNW). The recon updates give you a better idea of the path.

viewtopic.php?p=1777572#p1777572

[NEXRAD]

THe local Mets keep saying an East shift to the track seems likely, is it more likely Fay will track a little more N-NE or N-NW with this slowdown?

I'm waiting for the 12Z guidance to roll in, but am expecting a landfall between Fort Myers and Flamingo with the storm then moving north-northeast, over or just west of Lake Okeechobbee, and then offshore North-Central or Northeast Florida.

- Jay

[Category 5]

Can someone post a wooorrrrrkkkkiiiinnnngggg IR loop of FAY?!

I AM DYING HERE WAITING FOR SOMETHING TO LOAD....

I might just pull out my teeth if this keeps up

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/sat.irE1_an.gif

[CourierPR]

THe local Mets keep saying an East shift to the track seems likely, is it more likely Fay will track a little more N-NE or N-NW with this slowdown?

NHC said it will turn north today or tonight.

[johngaltfla]

Can someone post a wooorrrrrkkkkiiiinnnngggg IR loop of FAY?!

I AM DYING HERE WAITING FOR SOMETHING TO LOAD....

I might just pull out my teeth if this keeps up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html

Works fine for me....no problems at all.

[xironman]

Sombrero http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SMKF1 just updated, had winds up to 41kt in the past hour.

[jhpigott]

well folks I have been suggesting a more east shift for several days even bringing CLIMO into the discussion and it does appear it is coming to fruition.

SE Florida may just feel the brunt of this system if trends continue (SE FL is on the dirty side)

Irene part deux???!!!