ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chacor]

Convective cloud tops have warmed dramatically but an eye is still evident on IR.

[Ad Novoxium]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Jeff Masters calls for wind damage of about $100 million estimated, and an issurance estimate is over a billion. If the latter is correct, might as well kiss Dolly goodbye from hurricane lists for good. Juan (85) was, as far as I know, the only non-retired billion-dollar buster. However, it's not something to worry much about yet, because Ophelia had a $1.6 billion estimate, and that was nowhere near the final total ($70 million).

[Chacor]

If the current reports (0 deaths) holds true then unless we get ridiculous flooding I don't think $1 billion is going to get Dolly retired. Ernesto 2006 caused $0.5 billion and more deaths and wasn't retired, so...

[Ad Novoxium]

If the current reports (0 deaths) holds true then unless we get ridiculous flooding I don't think $1 billion is going to get Dolly retired. Ernesto 2006 caused $0.5 billion and more deaths and wasn't retired, so...

It's a sort of chancing thing. Those estimates on Dolly are similar to the 85 damages from Elena, and Elena only claimed four lives, all of those being indirect. Dolly already has 17 deaths directly and one indirect. It's not strong retirement material, but the damage may raise an eyebrow.

[Chacor]

Dolly already has 17 deaths directly and one indirect.

This is new info to me. Yes, if that's the case a high damage total would probably be enough to get it retired.

[WmE]

Dolly already has 17 deaths directly and one indirect.

This is new info to me. Yes, if that's the case a high damage total would probably be enough to get it retired.

17 dead in Guatemala, one indirect death in Florida due to rip currents.

[Chacor]

Guatemala? Some kind of boating accident? In that case, as nations have to request retirement, I don't think Guatemala will ask for retirement with 17 deaths and no damage, nor will the U.S. ask for retirement with 1 death and (relatively, compared to the top ten) low damage.

[caribepr]

Mudslides completely covering one family of 12's home, killing all. I'm not sure about the rest, but no, not boating.

[lebron23]

were getting rain here today! much needed rain!

[lrak]

Corpus has seen at least 4 to 6"s across some areas! I'm done, bring on hurricane season 2009!

[Sanibel]

Sitting and raining over the Rio Grande watershed.

[bob rulz]

:uarrow: Yeah, great image. I haven't seen many pictures that give a good idea of the intensity as of yet, but I'm sure that will change tomorrow.

They had some good footage on the Today Show this morning. It was enough to make me think that anyone on South Padre Island who chose to ride out that storm was just insane.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Insured damage could be as high as $1.5 billion (with a large percentage of it agriculture).

[bob rulz]

Is it just me or do Texas storms have a tendency to maintain their structure really well as they go inland?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at various sites, the median damage estimate is around $600M for insured damage (which is $1.2B in total damage) in the US, and about $300M total damage in Mexico.

http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bi ... l?id=13505

[Enzo Aquarius]

Amazing, I was watching the water levels in Ozo Creek at Corpus Christi yesterday, and it wasn't even at Action Stage. Today, the levels have risen all the way to Moderate Stage:

MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS...FROM THE HEADWATERS NEAR VIOLET ROAD...OR FARM TO MARKET 24...TO OSO BAY. SECONDARY ROADS AND LOW BRIDGES NEAR THE CREEK ARE ALSO FLOODED

Los Olmos Creek is predicted to enter Action Stage today.

[weatherguru18]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPBFIvVpm43k&refer=home

Insured damage could be as high as $1.5 billion (with a large percentage of it agriculture).

Chad Myers on CNN yesterday (before the storm even hit, mind you) already said the had an estimate of 3 to 4 billion in damage.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPBFIvVpm43k&refer=home

Insured damage could be as high as $1.5 billion (with a large percentage of it agriculture).

Chad Myers on CNN yesterday (before the storm even hit, mind you) already said the had an estimate of 3 to 4 billion in damage.

That assumed greater wind damage over the Brownsville area. That would be at the very top of early estimates if there is catastrophic flood damage.

The best numbers at this point are $1.2B in the US and $300M in Mexico.

If there is no real flood damage, then it will likely be less than $400 million total in Claudette territory. If there is catastrophic flood damage, it will likely be over $3 billion (and would give Dolly a serious retirement case).

[Enzo Aquarius]

Here's the power outage stats so far -

Cameron County (Excluding Brownsville) - 92.1%
Duval County - 9.2%
Hidalgo County - 59.7%
Jim Hogg County - 60.7%
Jim Wells County - 5.4%
Kleberg County - 6.1%
Nueces County - 1.1%
San Patricio County - 1.7%
Starr County - 1.0%
Willacy County - 89.1%

A total of 195015 customers are without power, mainly in the harder-hit regions of Dolly. http://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/ma ... n=aeptexas

[weatherguru18]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPBFIvVpm43k&refer=home

Insured damage could be as high as $1.5 billion (with a large percentage of it agriculture).

Chad Myers on CNN yesterday (before the storm even hit, mind you) already said the had an estimate of 3 to 4 billion in damage.

That assumed greater wind damage over the Brownsville area. That would be at the very top of early estimates if there is catastrophic flood damage.

The best numbers at this point are $1.2B in the US and $300M in Mexico.

If there is no real flood damage, then it will likely be less than $400 million total in Claudette territory. If there is catastrophic flood damage, it will likely be over $3 billion (and would give Dolly a serious retirement case).

The damage I've seen so far is comparable to that of a Cat. 1. I don't think Cat 2 winds were observed with this storm. Hardly Cat 1. winds (sustained) were observed. Everything I've seen is in the 70-80 mph. range.