ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8321 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:40 am

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:VDM Confirms it! Due North Movement with a pressure of 1002 MB

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 16:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Fay1
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 16:18:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°54'N 81°30'W (23.90N 81.50W)
B. Center Fix Location: 49 miles (79 km) to the SSE (159°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,446m (4,744ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 36kts (From the NNE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:51:00Z


See, once again using radar I predicted it was moving N or NNE and recon confirms.
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Clipper96

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8322 Postby Clipper96 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:41 am

tolakram wrote:Where are you getting a NE motion from? We've had a couple of aircraft fixes so far and nothing suggests a north or NE motion.
Fay looks like a subtropical gale more than a surface-based system. I have a hunch that there will be a series of mid-level convective vortexes to the northeast of the recon-fixed center today, and the cumulative effect will be a rightward adjustment of surface pressure.

(This is assuming Fay stays unstacked for most of the day.)
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Re: Tampa tomorrow

#8323 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:41 am

KayFL wrote:CycloneEye - you probably don't remember me, I don't post often, just read, but I have been around in 2002 - member 58 I think. Anyway, I now live in Atlanta and have to drive to Tampa tomorrow - how bad do you think it will be for me driving there?
Thanks,
KayFL


I recommend to you if its not important your visit to Tampa,dont drive as plenty of rain and windy conditions will be around that city and surrounding areas.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8324 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:42 am

im not sure we will get much from fay here on the se coast of florida besides some rain and perhaps a isolated tornado.. not even a breeze here right now
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#8325 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:43 am

Based on a combination of SFMR and flight-level winds, I think 55 kt is the current intensity. Yet the pressure is not dropping...
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Re:

#8326 Postby NEXRAD » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:43 am

Special K wrote:Dade, Broward & Palm Beach all under a tornado watch until 11:00 p.m. this evening, lots of rain up here in Gardens, but not a whole lot of wind.


Mesoscale analysis data has the peak helicities across the Upper Keys, Mainland Monroe, and Miami-Dade County right now. The wind profiles will become more favorable for storm rotation across areas farther north over the next few hours. From the number of discrete cells I notice offshore South Florida, I'd venture that we'll see scattered mini-supercells forming by mid-afternoon.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8327 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:45 am

Bocadude85 wrote:im not sure we will get much from fay here on the se coast of florida besides some rain and perhaps a isolated tornado.. not even a breeze here right now


You're pretty early to dismiss her when

A) she's heading on a north track now
B) she's nowhere near you yet
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#8328 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:45 am

Yep Jay i think we could well see some tornadoes today, esp on that NE side as the system comes ashore in about 18hrs time.

Also yep I think the LLC is going have to respond and move northwards and recon may well be showing that.
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Re:

#8329 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:45 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on a combination of SFMR and flight-level winds, I think 55 kt is the current intensity. Yet the pressure is not dropping...


Pressure is down a MB to 1002 last fix it was 1003
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8330 Postby StJoe » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:46 am

Pearl River wrote:Everyone stay safe.



Thats very nice of you to be thinking of us after what you went through. Was up in Biloxi a couple of months ago and passed through your area. I have to say that you and your fellow Slidell citizens are some if the nicest, most respectful people I have ever met.

J~
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#8331 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:46 am

:uarrow:

bocaDude the winds aloft should work their way down to the surface I'm pretty confident of that....winds would pick up later on this evening and later tonight.
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#8332 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:46 am

Sunny, Dry, and Hot here in Tampa Bay...Heat Indices will likely
top 106 F easily today. I'm going to see if any rain bands might
make it up here.
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Re:

#8333 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:46 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on a combination of SFMR and flight-level winds, I think 55 kt is the current intensity. Yet the pressure is not dropping...
It's not down one millibar?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8334 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:47 am

The emergency broadcasting just interrupted tv to issue TS warning from Jupiter Inlet N to I think to Sebastian Inlet.
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#8335 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:47 am

CrazyC83, I don't think we will see any real pressure drops till the system gets better stacked up, when that happens then I think the system will respond very rapidly given the wrapping its trying to do now.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8336 Postby NEXRAD » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:47 am

Bocadude85 wrote:im not sure we will get much from fay here on the se coast of florida besides some rain and perhaps a isolated tornado.. not even a breeze here right now


Fay's center is still well south/southwest of Mainland South Florida. Radar and surface obs are indicating that the windier weather is slowly spreading northward. The leading edge of the deteriorating conditions cannot really out-pace the storm's forward movement.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8337 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:47 am

For those of you predicting a northward movement, please keep in mind that the 11am fix was well west of the previous location so this new fix might either be more accurate or a wobble.

Image
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#8338 Postby jasons2k » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:47 am

I just spoke with my Dad on Big Pine - he said it's raining in sheets and the wind is really picking-up now. He said "can you hear that??" -- I could hear the wind on the phone. He is well-prepared.
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Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#8339 Postby dizzyfish » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:49 am

Hillsborough County schools are closed tomorrow and they are advising everyone to watch the news as we may be closed Wednesday depending on the weather situation.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8340 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:49 am

tolakram wrote:For those of you predicting a northward movement, please keep in mind that the 11am fix was well west of the previous location so this new fix might either be more accurate or a wobble.


RECON confirmed a north movement.
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