ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[pablolopez26]

Well most of the models have Gustav recurving southwestward a few hours after landfall.

This NGFDL has it coming a few miles east of Galveston.

I dont know, i guess your right about having to just watch it on satellite.

[tallywx]

Sorry to contradict you, but microwave imagery shows a possible outside eyewall as well as an inner eyewall.

I'd be interested to see if recon. shows a double wind maxima. Sometimes storms like this will have eyewall fragments and solid semi-rings of convection outside of it that are not an outer eyewall per se but just spreading out of updrafts due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

Maybe a pro can help out here, but would that count as an EWRC or is an EWRC a specific subset of situations in which two wind maxima exist involving an actual replacement process under ideal conditions in powerful hurricanes?

[PTrackerLA]

The eye is moving just to the east of the forecast points but looking at the satellite the overall appearance is suggesting a bend more to the west which would put it in line with the forecast. I don't like how the models put my area in the right front quadrant so we'll see how this all evolves. I'm prepared for 100mph winds but more than that and we could have some problems.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know what the intensity will be, but it will be a Major Hurricane at landfall, that much is pretty clear. Tell yourself otherwise, but the only thing that will save it from being a major is a prolonged EWRC or a complete stall in the middle of the gulf. An EWRC could potentially worsen the situation by increasing the wind field, as well.

That's pretty irresponsible to say when all the scientific data is to the contrary right now. We don't know whether it might restrengthen to a major or stay the way it is. So no, it's not "pretty clear." btw, you can't get an EWRC when there's no solid eye to begin with. You can get an inner core collapse, but technically, that wouldn't be an EWRC.

Sorry to contradict you, but microwave imagery shows a possible outside eyewall as well as an inner eyewall.

I am not to familiar with eyewall structure and replacements, what could this be possibly meaning

[Tom8]

[bigjohn]

tallywx

I understand what you are saying. If this forum were limited to simply a theoretical discussion of the meterological facts of storms, then the discussion might go elsewhere. But there multiple aspects to the subject when facing a storm such as Gustav. As much as you might wish it was so, the issue is not black and white. Non-technical people come here for not only theoretical discussion but for interpretation. They make decisions based on what they read here even if what they read here differs from what their leaders and the general media tell them. Since nothing is 100% certain, if they err in the wrong direction in making those decisions, THEY COULD DIE. I don't think that is something anyone here, leadership of local communities, the NHC, or the media in general wants to be responsible for. So when they make forecasts and err on the cautious side of uncertainty, who could blame them? You cannot turn on and turn off an evacuation like a light switch. Yesterday, evacuation looked like a smart move. maybe at this point today, the intensity might be less. But we have no firm facts that say the threat is any less given the potential for Gus to re-strengthen. People have to make decisions to evacuate based on that potential threat. The media and the NHC therefore must focus more on potential threat rather than the conditions at a point in time. So lets make sure that while we can discuss what we think the current condition of Gus may or may not be, that is an entirely different conversation from one on whether the threat justifies evacuation. Remember, in making the decision to evacuate, four things can happen:

You evacuate and the storm threat does not materialize. Wasted effort but you and your loved ones are safe
You evacuate and the storm arrives as forecast. But your loved ones are safe.

You stay, and the storm threat does not materialize. You dodged a bullet and your loved ones are safe
You stay and the storm arrives as forecast. When it's over, you get to bury one or more of your loved ones.

Given the choice to go or stay, the smart choice is to protect your family.

[pablolopez26]

To all the pro mets out there:

This high that everyone is talking about thats going to affect Gustavs steering. At about which point in time can we being to see this westerly steerage component?

Obviously Gustav is getting weaker, and due to this weakness it may be more prone to reacting to that high... Is this correct?

If so, when do you guys see the westerly turn to occur?

Thanks for all the valuable info and insight to whats going on!

Pablo

[Just Joshing You]

I am not to familiar with eyewall structure and replacements, what could this be possibly meaning

That is may possibly undergo an eyewall replacement cycle sometime in the near future. Near impossible to time with any certainty, but it could potentially happy.

[SoupBone]

I have no clue why but Channel 6 WDSU keeps showing some animation of a landfall near the TX/LA border. I'm not saying it isn't possible but I think some of the less educated might see this and thinks it's whats going to happen. VERY irresponsible IMHO.

[RL3AO]

Does look like a second eyewall may be forming.

[Tom8]

We have now about 11:30 am and soon we will see formation of the hurricane increasing .

[CrazyC83]

One thing overlooked after landfall: this could very well produce tornadoes at the rate seen in the big spring tornado outbreaks, at least in numbers...

[Nexus]

The last three VDM pressures before I went to bed 6 hours ago were 960, 960, 959. The latest is 962, and the satellite presentation is almost the same.

This storm is in a steady state pressure wise. It could weaken, it could strengthen - but it's most certainly not "falling apart". Yes, it's not what it was 24 hours ago, but the last 8 hours have been consistent. The best advice, as always, is to follow the NHC.

[soonertwister]

Interestingly the 12z GFS has this slowing down and bending towards the west before landfall - such that it actually goes west of Lafayette. I think that this point it's time to throw out the computers and nowcast based on satellite/radar/recon.

So instead of making a landfall directly upon New Orleans, its going to hit the Tx/La border? Is that what you think is going to happen?

Ive given up on trying to see where he is going. LOL

That's interesting, considering the landfall point hasn't moved 50 miles since 30 hours ago. You figure maybe it can just turn around and go away?

Sheesh.

[vacanechaser]

I have no clue why but Channel 6 WDSU keeps showing some animation of a landfall near the TX/LA border. I'm not saying it isn't possible but I think some of the less educated might see this and thinks it's whats going to happen. VERY irresponsible IMHO.

not to mention that ccn's graphic looks like it takes gustav from a 3 to a 1 at or near landfall... it is just as misleading because that is not what is being forecast...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[mvtrucking]

Does look like a second eyewall may be forming.

Isn't that quite old?

[Texashawk]

I have no clue why but Channel 6 WDSU keeps showing some animation of a landfall near the TX/LA border. I'm not saying it isn't possible but I think some of the less educated might see this and thinks it's whats going to happen. VERY irresponsible IMHO.

Agreed, but the models did shift significantly last night towards that area, plus the WNW movement *may* be already starting to take hold.

[tolakram]

In my opinion Gustav is clearly reorganizing and growing in size. I make no prediction on current intensity and what the future might hold.

[superfly]

So when they make forecasts and err on the cautious side of uncertainty, who could blame them? You cannot turn on and turn off an evacuation like a light switch. Yesterday, evacuation looked like a smart move. maybe at this point today, the intensity might be less. But we have no firm facts that say the threat is any less given the potential for Gus to re-strengthen. People have to make decisions to evacuate based on that potential threat. The media and the NHC therefore must focus more on potential threat rather than the conditions at a point in time. So lets make sure that while we can discuss what we think the current condition of Gus may or may not be, that is an entirely different conversation from one on whether the threat justifies evacuation. Remember, in making the decision to evacuate, four things can happen:

You evacuate and the storm threat does not materialize. Wasted effort but you and your loved ones are safe
You evacuate and the storm arrives as forecast. But your loved ones are safe.

You stay, and the storm threat does not materialize. You dodged a bullet and your loved ones are safe
You stay and the storm arrives as forecast. When it's over, you get to bury one or more of your loved ones.

Given the choice to go or stay, the smart choice is to protect your family.

It's not really that simple. Evacuations are a hassle and costs both time and money. If people evacuate this time and the threat doesn't materialize, then they will be hesitant to evacuate again in the future for a similar threat. This is part of the reason why so many people in NOLA didn't evacuate for Katrina. We had already been through numerous storms where we were told to evacuate but nothing came of it except rain and some moderate wind. I'm talking about Andrew, Georges, Opal, Ivan, etc. Many people just assumed the same would happen with Katrina and that is part of the reason why so many people stayed.

[Tom8]

That's interesting, considering the landfall point hasn't moved 50 miles since 30 hours ago. You figure maybe it can just turn around and go away?

the landefall of the eye is still directed to New Orlean area