ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxwonder12]

Is the northward motion happening in the expected time frame or is it earlier then expected

[Bocadude85]

im not sure we will get much from fay here on the se coast of florida besides some rain and perhaps a isolated tornado.. not even a breeze here right now

Fay's center is still well south/southwest of Mainland South Florida. Radar and surface obs are indicating that the windier weather is slowly spreading northward. The leading edge of the deteriorating conditions cannot really out-pace the storm's forward movement.

- Jay

I see well perhaps I should take the potted plants and lawn furniture in then?

[tolakram]

For those of you predicting a northward movement, please keep in mind that the 11am fix was well west of the previous location so this new fix might either be more accurate or a wobble.

RECON confirmed a north movement.

RECON confirmed a POSITION.


the plot again since it's already on the last page

[Category 5]

TORNADO WARNING
FLC087-181700-
/O.NEW.KKEY.TO.W.0001.080818T1637Z-080818T1700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1237 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIDGEON KEY...OR 6 MILES
SOUTH OF MARATHON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE BY 1240 PM EDT...
PIDGEON KEY BY 1240 PM EDT...
OHIO KEY AND BAHIA HONDA KEY BY 1245 PM EDT...
BIG PINE KEY AND LITTLE TORCH KEY BY 1255 PM EDT...
MIDDLE TORCH KEY BY 100 PM EDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVE RAPIDLY...ARE OFTEN
WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN...AND ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY
ARE VERY CLOSE. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A LOW SPOT
ON THE GROUND AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY OR THE U.S. COAST GUARD...AND ASK THAT YOUR REPORT BE RELAYED
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST. YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTLY AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1
6...EXTENSION 3.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2471 8151 2474 8151 2478 8149 2476 8133
2480 8128 2477 8126 2474 8129 2468 8128
2468 8122 2472 8117 2469 8111 2469 8120
2462 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 119DEG 36KT 2464 8115

$$

11

[Pearl River]

StJoe wrote:

Pearl River wrote:
Everyone stay safe.



Thats very nice of you to be thinking of us after what you went through. Was up in Biloxi a couple of months ago and passed through your area. I have to say that you and your fellow Slidell citizens are some if the nicest, most respectful people I have ever met.

J~

Thank you Sir and again I reiterate, Please be careful. For all you young guns out there, these things are nothing to play around with.

[SouthFLTropics]

For those of you predicting a northward movement, please keep in mind that the 11am fix was well west of the previous location so this new fix might either be more accurate or a wobble.

RECON confirmed a north movement.

This so much reminds me of Irene Adam. It's almost like were going retro today back to 1999!

SFT

[Steve]

>>See, once again using radar I predicted it was moving N or NNE and recon confirms.



But nice call anyway.

[AdamFirst]

This so much reminds me of Irene Adam. It's almost like were going retro today back to 1999!

SFT

I was in Homestead when Irene hit. It got kind of wet down there

[NEXRAD]

Is the northward motion happening in the expected time frame or is it earlier then expected

I wouldn't consider a single fix to be a northward motion. Fay's past movement shows plenty of sudden changes with direction (more west versus more north) and with forward motion. I'd wait to see what the trend is over several hours.

- Jay

[WhirlWind]

Collier County schools are closed for tomorrow, Tuesday. Lee County has not made a decision as of yet.
WhilrWind

[x-y-no]

Sombrero Key (Anemometer height: 48.5 m)



38 knots sustained.

[StJoe]

>>See, once again using radar I predicted it was moving N or NNE and recon confirms.



But nice call anyway.

Is this based on Doppler, Vipir, or Keebler???

[tolakram]

Is the northward motion happening in the expected time frame or is it earlier then expected

I wouldn't consider a single fix to be a northward motion. Fay's past movement shows plenty of sudden changes with direction (more west versus more north) and with forward motion. I'd wait to see what the trend is over several hours.

- Jay

If you look at the plot just before Cuba you'll see they fixed a position well west of the plot over land which gave the appearance that it was moving NE for a while when it wasn't. I'm thinking the fix this morning was too far west and this latest fix confirms that but gives the appearance that it's moving straight north.

Heck it may be moving due north now but we need a fix later today to confirm it.

[KWT]

Yeah thats the best advice Jay not just to take a breif short term wobble as a fix of its direction.

The best in formation to know is that its south of the Keys right now, even a northerly motion brings this into Sw Florida, granted right on the southern side of the west coast!

[tolakram]

KEY WEST

Wind: 34 mph / 56 km/h / 15.4 m/s from the NE
Wind Gust: 47 mph / 76 km/h / 21.1 m/s
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006 hPa



thanks to weather underground for this image

[Clipper96]

Sombrero Key (Anemometer height: 48.5 m)

38 knots sustained.

That is very nice; where are you getting them?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds sustained at 41mph at Long Key and 38mph at Sand Key right now. Gusts are into the mid to upper 40s.

[NEXRAD]

With the Florida Keys surface observations, notice the steeper pressure drops, this is a clear sign that the locations are falling within the tropical cyclone's core region.

- Jay

[KWT]

So we are getting tropical storm force winds sustained now in the Keys it seems, impressive given the center is still fair decently to the south, so would guess this has a fair fetch of TS winds probably thanks to the sheared apperence as well.

[tolakram]

They finally fixed this link.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

best close up loop available. You can clearly see the MLC and LLC.