ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[x-y-no]

Sombrero Key (Anemometer height: 48.5 m)
...
38 knots sustained.

That is very nice; where are you getting them?

National Data Buoy Center:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds look to be very slowly increasing in Miami. The Miami International airport has gone from 7mph last hour to 15mph this hour. The first frequent gusts over 20mph should probably be arriving there soon. Down in Homestead, they are already gusting to 25mph.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like its becoming better organized. Fay must have found heaven in the Gulf Stream.

[Blown Away]

deltadog03 wrote:
EURO has a very potent CANE sitting off the GA coast and coming in on thursday!

Deltadog03, will you confirm a few things:
1. Did recent recon indicate N movement?
2. With regards to the NHC track is this N movement early?
3. Do you expect more of an E adjustment to the NHC track?
4. Do you think Fay will exit into the Atlantic S of the Cape?

Sorry posted in the Fay models also.

[artist]

Is the northward motion happening in the expected time frame or is it earlier then expected

I wouldn't consider a single fix to be a northward motion. Fay's past movement shows plenty of sudden changes with direction (more west versus more north) and with forward motion. I'd wait to see what the trend is over several hours.

- Jay

Jay, we are 30 miles to the east of the lake O. Do you think we will see anything more than ts winds here? Thanks!

[x-y-no]

With the Florida Keys surface observations, notice the steeper pressure drops, this is a clear sign that the locations are falling within the tropical cyclone's core region.

- Jay

Yes - while up at Fowey Rocks (offshore from Miami) it's still just an average day, 17 knot wind, no particular pressure drop.

That'll change soon ...

[tolakram]

and once again the hi res floater link:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

deltadog03 wrote:
EURO has a very potent CANE sitting off the GA coast and coming in on thursday!

Deltadog03, will you confirm a few things:
1. Did recent recon indicate N movement?
2. With regards to the NHC track is this N movement early?
3. Do you expect more of an E adjustment to the NHC track?
4. Do you think Fay will exit into the Atlantic S of the Cape?

Sorry posted in the Fay models aslo.

I am not deltadog but I have been watching recon closely. According to the last center fix it was north of where the center fix was before that. Could be a sign of a North movement, could be a wobble, could be the center being pulled up by the deeper convection. This next fix will decide if it is a North movement or not and even if it is it could still be just a short term movement.

[KWT]

Looks like its structure is indeed improviung Hurakan but the shearing is really stopping this from doing a great deal in terms of ramping up compared to what is possibly in this region of the basin.
Still depsite the shear the system does seem to be slowly strengthening.

[StJoe]

and once again the hi res floater link:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

OMG...she is exploding!!!

[WhirlWind]

Lee County schools have now closed for Tuesday.
WhirlWind

[Clipper96]

With the Florida Keys surface observations, notice the steeper pressure drops, this is a clear sign that the locations are falling within the tropical cyclone's core region.

According to radar, the Keys are currently getting hard with strong banding. The apparent surface center is still well to the SSW halfway to Cuba, and echoes there are actually weakening.

[Extremeweatherguy]

and once again the hi res floater link:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Looking at those surface wind reports out of the keys, it seems like the center may have relocated ENE of the red circle and more toward the deeper convection.

[SWFLA_CANE]

All Collier Gov. will be closed tomorrow.

[NEXRAD]

Is the northward motion happening in the expected time frame or is it earlier then expected

I wouldn't consider a single fix to be a northward motion. Fay's past movement shows plenty of sudden changes with direction (more west versus more north) and with forward motion. I'd wait to see what the trend is over several hours.

- Jay

Jay, we are 30 miles to the east of the lake O. Do you think we will see anything more than ts winds here? Thanks!

This is a tricky question to answer. Based on all of the information I have thus far, I'd count on expecting conditions similar to what 1999's Hurricane Irene brought.

- Jay

[tolakram]

and once again the hi res floater link:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Looking at those surface wind reports out of the keys, it seems like the center may have relocated ENE of the red circle and more toward the deeper convection.

Look at the loop I linked too. The LLC visible there looks vigorous, I doubt it's relocation but i agree the wind direction int he keys looks suspicious. Maybe a pro-met can comment?

[HURAKAN]

To put to rest the confusion about Katrina's intensity over the Everglades:

"Katrina continued west-southwestward overnight and spent only about six hours over land, mostly over the water-laden Everglades. Surface observations and velocity estimates from the Miami and Key West Doppler radars indicated that Katrina weakened over mainland Monroe County to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots. The center of Tropical Storm Katrina then emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at approximately 0500 UTC on 26 August just north of Cape Sable."

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml

The NHC's website is working in short intervals.

Back to Fay!

[NEXRAD]

The storm cells just offshore Broward County are beginning to show signs of weak rotation. The current spinning cell will be moving towards the Central and North Broward County coast, heading towards Oakland Park, Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, and Pompano Beach.

- Jay

[StJoe]

Anyone have any ideas about what PBC schools will be doing?

So far, they are open tomorrow, though there is speculation that they might have a half day tomorrow. It is not to late for minor changes like those.

From the PBC school board:

Hurricane Information - Updated 8/18/08
Palm Beach County schools are operating on their normal schedules today, Monday, August 18. District officials will announce between noon and six p.m. today whether any changes will be made to Tuesday's schedule. Please monitor local news media, this Web site or the emergency hotline at (561) 357-7500 for any updates.

Oh, here's the link...just update it every 1/2 hour.

http://www.palmbeachschools.org/

[KWT]

Seems like the center you've put there ios a touch too far east according to the vortex message, probably why it loos like the center has relocated to the east but in fact the center is actually a little to the east of where you placed it, vortex showed 23.54N 81.30W.