ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Everytime the NHC readjusts the track to the east, Gustav still continues to move east of the forecast points.

[Bunkertor]

What´s the source of this information ? Has it been updated ?

Everyone who is in the following situations MUST evacuate:

1) If you are south of I-10/I-12 between Beaumont, Texas and Pascagoula, Mississippi. Regardless of your base elevation (and few places there are above the potential surge), you would get stranded in practically an island for days or weeks with no chance for help if you get a direct hit.

2) If you are less than 25 feet above sea level in Louisiana or Mississippi, or 15 feet in Southeast Texas or Alabama, or 5 feet in the Florida Panhandle. There are spots where the surge line crosses that corridor, and you will still be in danger.

3) If your house cannot withstand wind gusts of 120 mph. This is a no-brainer, as mobile homes and weak structures will not withstand the winds even with a glancing blow. Not to mention the tornado threat.

4) If you live in a river flood plain. Not the greatest threat in coastal areas, but river flooding is always an issue with heavy rain in inland areas, even hundreds of miles inland.

[Texashawk]

Wow, definitely a jog NNE in the last 2 frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Um.... sorry, but I don't see it. I do see a turn more WNW, perhaps that is what you meant. Not trying to sound smart-aleky or whatnot, but I absolutely do not see a NNE movement.

[HURAKAN]

My family just spoke to my relatives in Cuba and everyone is OK. They say that there are a lot of electricity poles in the ground but there is not a lot of tree damage. I think Charley handled that in 2004. The Cuban government is saying that they expect electricity to be back between 25 to 30 days.

Oh wow. I'm glad to hear they are okay, but gosh that's a long time.

Thanks. I have a friend that has family members closer to the path of the storm and she hasn't been able to communicate with them. I expect that the damage must have been extensive to extremem in Pinar del Río.

[Normandy]

I certainly think its a little foolish to underestimate Gustav, a cat-3 heading quickly towards the shelf waters may not have the same response as a cat-5 like Katrina, however I think if we are to see any strengthening its going to be modest at best.

Normandy, think that through though, cat-5 in the gulf with a system this size means cat-5 type surge in N.O if it lines up correctly...

The max winds of a storm have little to do with the surge height, its more a function of the sprawl of 65kt winds. Gustav is fairly large, so no matter what it will bring a hefty surge.

[KWT]

Of course Normandy but stil lthe stronger the hurricane the more sure will get whipped up, of course the systems size is just as important I agree and we are quite possibly sadly looking at another possible Katrina situation unfolding before out eyes.

[jasons2k]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Everytime the NHC readjusts the track to the east, Gustav still continues to move east of the forecast points.

Yeah and look for the trend to be in the opposite direction form here on out due to the high to the north and the trough finally pulling away....

[Normandy]

Of course Normandy but stil lthe stronger the hurricane the more sure will get whipped up, of course the systems size is just as important I agree and we are quite possibly sadly looking at another possible Katrina situation unfolding before out eyes.

Of course the category 5 winds do up the surge a little, probably 4-5 feet. But Katrina's damage was done by her size of hurricane force winds, and this will likely be the same with Gustav, regardless of the Category assigned to him at landfall. Unfortunately Gustav already looks to be deepening.

[jasons2k]

I've also noticed some of the feeder bands on the HGX radar (far from the center) are weakening now, another possible sign the system is getting its act together and about to deepen again.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Txhawk

I think the call by those Texas officials were actually the tough ones to make. They had a much lower level of assurance they were at risk. But that did not impact the enormity of the task. Hopefully they would not have been facing a Rita type situation since the Houston metro area was not really at risk. But that was their call. I might have held off, but I don't get paid to make that call. So I am surely not criticizing them.

John, yesterday morning there were still 2 camps of modeling and the NHC said in their discussions that they were going to take the right-leaning models. But they acknowledged the other modeling showing a westward bend prior to landfall which would have put Jefferson and Orange counties in harms way. Given the time frames needed to safely evacuate elderly, the sick, and other special needs persons ... officials in SE Texas could not afford to take the chance. They made the right call. But that is what they were dealing with at the time they had to make a very tough decision.

Everyone also needs to understand that during Rita all of our hotels, hospitals and nursing homes were full of Katrina evacuees. When Rita hit, we were having to evacuate them as well as our own residents. As of Friday, our local hotels were already booked from LA residents trying to avoid Gustav. Dealing with evacuating the LA residents and our own is too much for our infrastructure to handle. As of last night, we had models predicting hits from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Mobile. We learned our lesson and decided to err on the side of caution. By calling for a mandatory evacuation today, it allows for the safety of our residents and better control for our emergency management services should we take a hit or even an indirect hit.

[mvtrucking]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Everytime the NHC readjusts the track to the east, Gustav still continues to move east of the forecast points.

Yeah and look for the trend to be in the opposite direction form here on out due to the high to the north and the trough finally pulling away....

So you are thinking a definte shift by the NHC [b]west[b]?

[jwayne]

center getting pulled under the developing deep reds on sat?

[KWT]

Of course the category 5 winds do up the surge a little, probably 4-5 feet. But Katrina's damage was done by her size of hurricane force winds, and this will likely be the same with Gustav, regardless of the Category assigned to him at landfall. Unfortunately Gustav already looks to be deepening.

Yep indeed thats the key thing, Gustav is a large system and therefore be a threat not only to places near the landfall but could give a fair battering to places a fair way west and east as well. In terms of the surge, I'd suspect there will also be a surge onto the western side of mobile bay which needs watching.

[bigjohn]

Obviously you don't know how many millions of people live on/near the Upper Texas coast. Nobody wants a repeat of Rita, but the reality is that it is technically and practically impossible to evacuate everybody within a timeline that people can be 'sure' that a storm will be a threat. So if you're an (elected) official, you make the call on the side of caution. That's not 'ridiculous', that's reality.

Well of course that's what the elected official will do just so he won't take the blame. That's also what happened for Andrew, Georges, Opal, Ivan in NOLA. People don't like evacuating, they'll do it once, twice, 3 times, but will they do it a 4th or a 5th or a 6th if nothing disastrous happened any of the previous times they evacuated? THAT'S reality. Government officials will of course cover their own backs in case the worst case scenario happens, but that doesn't mean it's the best for the general public.

So if the lives of others are in your hands based on what decision you make, are you going to make a risky decision? I am not a big fan of any politician. But I just think what they are doing makes common sense. Unless you are a mind reader, debating their motives is probably a little out of line. Now if people get tired of evacuating based on what may be in their best interest, then they can do one of two things

1) Move
2) Make their own decision and become accountable for their own survivial

[Wx_Warrior]

SETX mandatory was NOT premature. It's a holiday weekend...yes people are strained $$$$$...but if this was to turn west, then it's too late...Let'em complain.

We may be dealing with this same problem in 2 weeks.

[Hyperstorm]

I wouldn't say the outflow is improving to the point of strengthening. There is definitely some fanning out of the clouds at SOME level to the south of the system, but you can clearly see the undercutting shear not letting the thunderstorm clouds (the blues and oranges on the color enhanced IR) fan that way.

Until I see the coldest cloud tops (blues and oranges) fan southward and not appear wall-like in structure on the southern side, I don't see any intensification. As a point, the eye on IR has filled in over the last hour or so with a convective burst over it, so I would expect the pressure to rise some more at this point.

Shear is expected to lessen somewhat per models over the next 6-12 hours (again "models"), but even if that happens I don't expect this to be more than a Category 2 or low end Category 3 at landfall based on the current quite ragged structure and lower oceanic heat content further north.

These are my personal observations and of course, do not reflect the opinion of Storm2k.

[soonertwister]

Txhawk

I think the call by those Texas officials were actually the tough ones to make. They had a much lower level of assurance they were at risk. But that did not impact the enormity of the task. Hopefully they would not have been facing a Rita type situation since the Houston metro area was not really at risk. But that was their call. I might have held off, but I don't get paid to make that call. So I am surely not criticizing them.

John, yesterday morning there were still 2 camps of modeling and the NHC said in their discussions that they were going to take the right-leaning models. But they acknowledged the other modeling showing a westward bend prior to landfall which would have put Jefferson and Orange counties in harms way. Given the time frames needed to safely evacuate elderly, the sick, and other special needs persons ... officials in SE Texas could not afford to take the chance. They made the right call. But that is what they were dealing with at the time they had to make a very tough decision.

Everyone also needs to understand that during Rita all of our hotels, hospitals and nursing homes were full of Katrina evacuees. When Rita hit, we were having to evacuate them as well as our own residents. As of Friday, our local hotels were already booked from LA residents trying to avoid Gustav. Dealing with evacuating the LA residents and our own is too much for our infrastructure to handle. As of last night, we had models predicting hits from Beaumont/Port Arthur to Mobile. We learned our lesson and decided to err on the side of caution. By calling for a mandatory evacuation today, it allows for the safety of our residents and better control for our emergency management services should we take a hit or even an indirect hit.

Thanks for the very clear and understandable explanation of the reason for the late evacuations. I was surprised when I heard about them earlier today, but your explanation makes perfect sense.

Plus, all that huge amount of rain that east Texas is going to get over the next few days all runs downhill, and we know where that is...

[Normandy]

Of course the category 5 winds do up the surge a little, probably 4-5 feet. But Katrina's damage was done by her size of hurricane force winds, and this will likely be the same with Gustav, regardless of the Category assigned to him at landfall. Unfortunately Gustav already looks to be deepening.

Yep indeed thats the key thing, Gustav is a large system and therefore be a threat not only to places near the landfall but could give a fair battering to places a fair way west and east as well. In terms of the surge, I'd suspect there will also be a surge onto the western side of mobile bay which needs watching.

Yep.
Check out the recon observations. TS winds reach FAR from the center, and they just found a 63kt surface wind far from the center as well. Gustav is pretty large.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wouldn't say the outflow is improving to the point of strengthening. There is definitely some fanning out of the clouds at SOME level to the south of the system, but you can clearly see the undercutting shear not letting the thunderstorm clouds (the blues and oranges on the color enhanced IR) fan that way.

Until I see the coldest cloud tops (blues and oranges) fan southward and not appear wall-like in structure on the southern side, I don't see any intensification. As a point, the eye on IR has filled in over the last hour or so with a convective burst over it, so I would expect the pressure to rise some more at this point.

Shear is expected to lessen somewhat per models over the next 6-12 hours (again "models"), but even if that happens I don't expect this to be more than a Category 2 or low end Category 3 at landfall.

These are my personal observations and of course, do not reflect the opinion of Storm2k.

I agree, if anything, it's weakening further. I don't see strengthening happening at all....

[shah8]

Weakening trend is rather spectacularly over. If this sort of convection continues as the eye pops out again, well...It ain't gonna be a cat1, let's just leave it at that.