TC Bertha

[ekal]

I would feel deeply uncomfortable calling a storm that kills thousands in Hispaniola a fish.

[GeneratorPower]

Definition of the term "Fish" for purposes of storm2K.

A fish storm is one that avoids landfall with North, Central or South America and recurves north to the Atlantic and eventually NE.

Though we know that many islands are effected by the storm, it avoids mainland USA. Its not an arogant point of view nor are we discounting the tragedy that these fish storms have on islands such as Bermuda, we are just using a term that everyone can understand.

You are 100% right but there will be a lot of folks who call for your head.

[dwg71]

I would feel deeply uncomfortable calling a storm that kills thousands in Hispaniola a fish.

What term we use on a message board, does not have impact on the storm, its path or its damages caused. If somebody stated "welll it was just a bunch of Hispaniolians, who cares" - that's a problem. Nobody is doing that. Again, we are not discounting the tragedy, just using a term to define a storms overall path.

[MiamiensisWx]

This post is NOT an official prognosis.

I'll summarize the situation with Bertha.

I can see the arguments for a more "extreme" west track, and I definitely lean toward a solution along the western flank of the model "cluster", but I still expect recurvature. A deepening H5 trough will likely suppress the western extent of the Azores ridge, as seen on the 12Z GFS around 36 hours. A few shortwave impulses at H7 will likely weaken the ridging at the lower levels as well. At the same time, the upper low will remain in place over the central North Atlantic and gradually transition to a weak mid-latitude trough. I do not always place undue "stock" into any particular model, but I believe the operational GFS has a good initialization of the upper air pattern. The main caveat is the intensification and deepening trends of Bertha. This is one of those situations where there is minimal shear in the short term, which would present a conducive environment for deepening, but the thermodynamics are more questionable. Personally, I believe Bertha may easily be weaker than indicated by the TPC's intensity forecast. There is a persistent temp inversion at 700 mb to the west and WNW of the cyclone, which is capping convection. This is associated with the SAL in the vicinity. Visible imagery also indicates the presence of low level dust immediately adjacent to the TC. Therefore, as Bertha moves WNW, intensification may be more "timid" than indicated by the NHC. With strong low level ridging to the north, a track along the southern end of the guidance "cluster" seems reasonable. Later, as Bertha interacts with strong divergence in the central Atlantic, it will likely weaken and possibly dissipate in the vicinity. Similar situations (see Barry '89) have resulted in analogous final scenarios.

Note: The reference to Barry '89 is the dissipation in the open Atlantic

[hurricane]

Now we have Bertha the cv season is off to a fast start.

[vbhoutex]

Supporting predictions with facts makes the board look better as a whole.

That is what we always promote here.

Let me add a little here.

The TT forum is indeed for "wide open discussion" of tropical systems and our thoughts, analyses, etc. concerning them. WE DO PREFER THAT PREDICTIONS/FORECASTS BE BACKED UP BY SOME COMMON SENSE/REASONABLE "ANALYSIS"(and a STORM2K disclaimer). However that anlaysis does not always have to be detailed or "completely scientifically backed"(though that would be prefered in any situation such as this I would think). We do encourage both the rankest of amatuers all the way to the highest level pro-mets to use this forum so there will be a wide range of analysis and discussion that will hopefully educate everyone. Part of keeping this forum sane is also not encouraging single sentence posts etc. that do not add anything to the discussion. Staff has been told to monitor this type of activity also. We have posted about this and the actions we will take for several years now so I am not going to repeat it.

Now back to Bertha!!!!

[Category 5]

I would feel deeply uncomfortable calling a storm that kills thousands in Hispaniola a fish.

What term we use on a message board, does not have impact on the storm, its path or its damages caused. If somebody stated "welll it was just a bunch of Hispaniolians, who cares" - that's a problem. Nobody is doing that. Again, we are not discounting the tragedy, just using a term to define a storms overall path.

For the sake of consistancy IMO a storm who's center never touches land would be better.

[KWT]

Interestingly Category 5 boris in the EPAC managed to breifly get back upto hurricane status in the black zone of your image and has managed to keep as a strong TS for a good 36hrs in that region so whilst its not going to develop that quickly it may still be able to slowly strengthen even over those lower heat content regions though personally I think it will struggle to get any stronger past the next 24hrs.
Miami I agree, Barry 89 isn't a bad system to compare this one to, may well end up being similar strength as well we shall see.

hurricane, yep fast start to the CV season indeed!

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1145 UTC 14.3N 63.4W TOO WEAK

93L -- Atlantic Ocean
03/1200 UTC 13.1N 24.0W T2.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Category 5]

Interestingly Category 5 boris in the EPAC managed to breifly get back upto hurricane status in the black zone of your image and has managed to keep as a strong TS for a good 36hrs in that region so whilst its not going to develop that quickly it may still be able to slowly strengthen even over those lower heat content regions though personally I think it will struggle to get any stronger past the next 24hrs.

Which is why I'm unwilling to rule out the slight possibility that this could become a strong TS or even a Hurricane. Epsilon taught us about exactly how perfect conditions need to be to support a Hurricane. You have a good example with Boris as well, though it was a stronger system at the time.

The likelihood is low for the time being, but not out of the question.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, political correctness strikes again, I guess its insensitive profiling to call a Fish Storm a Fish Storm now!

[dwg71]

Now we have Bertha the cv season is off to a fast start.

Time will tell, some promet - maybe DOrtt said it was absolute perfect conditions surrounding Bertha. I dont think that will always be the case.

[ekal]

I would feel deeply uncomfortable calling a storm that kills thousands in Hispaniola a fish.

What term we use on a message board, does not have impact on the storm, its path or its damages caused. If somebody stated "welll it was just a bunch of Hispaniolians, who cares" - that's a problem. Nobody is doing that. Again, we are not discounting the tragedy, just using a term to define a storms overall path.

While the intention is not meant to be poor, calling an island storm a fish implies that the islands are not important enough to be considered in whether a storm will ultimately avoid land. I don't see why a tropical cyclone striking Hispaniola is any different from a tropical cyclone hitting the mainland, other than the fact that its damage potential is much greater.

However, that's just my opinion. You're welcome to disagree.

[KWT]

I suspect your right C5, the best chance for this to take off will probably be breifly when it reaches the warmer waters near 40W again but not far enough NW to feel the shear, it would only be a short window but maybe enough for an already established system to ramp up, we shall see though!

[Derek Ortt]

Here an honest and serious petition for the pro's whose analyzed that it wouldn't develope at all (92L). Based in those explanations that were posted, what changed o what did happen that today we have a tropical storm instead of a tropical wave with circulation or a llc without significant convection?. Again, is a sincere question with the only purpose of get a professional and technical answer. I have so much respect for all the Pro Met's here and I'm thankful that they share their valuable knowledge with us... just for the record.

better to ask this in the thread on bertha in the TA forum

[HURRICANELONNY]

I wanted to take a look at tracks in 96. Just to get an idea of the year Bertha formed this early. There really is no validity from 96 to 08 but it's something of interest.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1996.html

[curtadams]

I also concur that this system isn't very anomalous over the long haul. There may have easily been additional July tropical storms within this region in the past, especially during the pre-satellite era and years prior to the 1990s. However, in our "confirmed" records, this is very significant.

This region has had constant heavy shipping traffic for hundreds of years. It's very unlikely a TS would go unnoticed. I doubt there's been a TS there since the foundation of Lloyds of London in 1871 and probably not for a good time before that.

[MiamiensisWx]

From 1851 to 2007, only two tropical cyclones (Cesar '90 and Alex '98) developed within 200 nmi of TS Bertha's current position near 13.3 N 24.7 W. Although they were classified as tropical depressions east of 40 W, both of them dissipated in the open Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

[fci]

I would feel deeply uncomfortable calling a storm that kills thousands in Hispaniola a fish.

What term we use on a message board, does not have impact on the storm, its path or its damages caused. If somebody stated "welll it was just a bunch of Hispaniolians, who cares" - that's a problem. Nobody is doing that. Again, we are not discounting the tragedy, just using a term to define a storms overall path.

While the intention is not meant to be poor, calling an island storm a fish implies that the islands are not important enough to be considered in whether a storm will ultimately avoid land. I don't see why a tropical cyclone striking Hispaniola is any different from a tropical cyclone hitting the mainland, other than the fact that its damage potential is much greater.

However, that's just my opinion. You're welcome to disagree.

You have it right.
If a storm crosses LAND it is not a fish.
Seems pretty black and white.
An island has land so a storm that crosses an island can't be a fish.

Now.... what about an uninhabited island???????