ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL and UKMET shifted east:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif

[Sanibel]

It could still be tilted somewhat. Key West winds should confirm.

[johngaltfla]

You are seeing a post land crossing residual diminishment still. Delayed land drag. Keep watching as you see it rebound and manifest the SST it is currently crossing but hasn't translated into convection yet. Just like post Hispaniola, a d-min combined with land weakening.

Good luck to you Sanibel. It looks like you might get a ride down there as the storm is intensifying. And to think Captiva is just now pretty much recovered. Good luck to all of you down there!

[Sanibel]

Just saved me from having to load the car. Watch NHC shift east at 5.


The birds are never wrong! lol

[StJoe]

Fay looks to be right of the NHC track on the SFWMD Radar:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Dude...awesomw radar site...thanks!!!

[CrazyC83]

Extrapolated pressure from the NOAA plane: 998mb.

[storms in NC]

gatorcane Have you thought it may not hit Fla at all? It could happen. NOT saying it will be it could. I am think now they will move it even more east. With it slowing up will give her time to get her self together and streighten to at less a cat 1 maybe a 2. Just some things running in my head.

Some one said that they couldn't turn that fast. Yes she can. I have seen it done. I think it was dennis. Came right up to Wilm and Then he turned to the rightand out then looped back and gave us rain then floyd.

I think you really need to defer to the NHC on the track...this has been an extremely had to storm to forecast, both in intensity and track but since they found a closed low and issued their initial forecast track they have done a pretty good job with this one given all of the variables at play here. I think they have a very handle on the forecast track right now, granted they may have to tweak it a little more eastward I still believe they have pretty decent confidence in their 48 hour forecast...IMO if this makes it to NC it will be as a remnant low in the middle of the state.

OH NO it wouldn't even come close to NC. NEVER said it would. And yes you are right NHC has done very good with a storm that is very hard to get a handle on. I was just runing thing over in my head to what could happen. I didn't say it was. No way I was putting down NHC.

[cpdaman]

ULL is still messing with this thing it appears........thankfully

[capepoint]

Winds continue to quickly spread north. Winds at Miami International are now gusting to 25mph, and in Homestead they are gusting to 31mph. These numbers are a far cry from the 7mph winds Miami was reporting 2 hours ago, and they should only continue to increase as we head through the afternoon.

Closer to the center, winds are even higher. In Key West they are now gusting to 51mph, in Marathon they are gusting to 40mph, and Long Key is gusting to 51-55mph.

Obs Pressures are very close to recon center pressures. have seen as low as 1004 in keys.

[johngaltfla]

Funny thing is Sanibel, the NHC forecast has pretty much been following the HWRF and not the GFDL which has been all over the place for this storm....keep the keys handy just in case....

[gatorcane]

Fay looks to be getting even better organized.....hopefully she'll be over land soon and not stall over the FL Keys like the new Euro suggests (keep in mind the Euro has done a good job with Fay so far).

[Sanibel]

Cuba caused Fay to weaken and allow the ULL to punch in. But now Fay is rebounding and will push the ULL/dry air intrusion back out as it tightens up, wraps, and strengthens.

[tolakram]

Very very close to Key West and it appears more organized.

[Sirius LeWindy]

Tornado Warning in the lower Keys:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

[Clipper96]

12z GFS continues the 00z run's stall of the east coast, then back across Florida into the Gulf scenario, although not as severe (Fay doesn't wind up in the central Gulf this time).

Is there a record kept for a storm that spends the longest time as a TS without becoming hurricane or dropping back to a depression?

[NEXRAD]

SE Metro Florida winds...

Looking at the ADAS mesonet grids, it seems like weak surface ridging was holding across Broward and Palm Beach counties earlier today. This afternoon the ridging has lifted more north (currently from Martin County north) and the low-level flow across all of Southeast Florida is falling more under Fay's influence. I suspect that the metro areas from Palm Beach south are in a transitory period between the ridge influence and Fay's circulation, and if so, the winds should start ramping-up over the next several hours. Indeed, Miami is beginning to report stronger winds.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

That could be our SST translation center burst starting.

[O Town]

Tornado Warning in the lower Keys:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... %20warning

People still going in and out of this bar, and it doesn't even look like its raining there. ?

http://www.schoonerwharf.com/webcam.htm
Most of the other webcams down there have been disabled. This about the only decent one I could find. Good music too.

[KWT]

Looks like Fay is indeed getting better organised still with some deep convection finally blowing up over the center.

Will be very interesting to see how much of a bend to the NNE will actually occur, quite a few models still don;t have much if any bend to the east.

[Frank2]

Fay is almost subtropical in appearance, since there is very little convection south and west of the center at this time - it seems that Key West residents might see some sun before the afternoon is over...