ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[x-y-no]

Wind now increasing at Fowey Rocks light (off Miami, Anemometer height: 43.9 m)

[capepoint]

Just saved me from having to load the car. Watch NHC shift east at 5.


The birds are never wrong! lol

Personal non-pro opinion..They have to shift east, as right now it is tracking a little east of forcast plot. A little east now could mean a lot east the further north it goes. Looks like it turned north a little sooner than expected. If nothing else will have to expand cone a little east.
I don't envy those guys at TPC at all. Whatever they say, somebody will accuse them of crying wolf and costing somebody a bunch of money, or not sounding the alarm soon enough and letting something get thru.

[Evil Jeremy]

At the rate this storm is moving right now, we could be seeing a landfall late tonight or early morning IMO.

[gatorcane]

SE Metro Florida winds...

Looking at the ADAS mesonet grids, it seems like weak surface ridging was holding across Broward and Palm Beach counties earlier today. This afternoon the ridging has lifted more north (currently from Martin County north) and the low-level flow across all of Southeast Florida is falling more under Fay's influence. I suspect that the metro areas from Palm Beach south are in a transitory period between the ridge influence and Fay's circulation, and if so, the winds should start ramping-up over the next several hours. Indeed, Miami is beginning to report stronger winds.

- Jay

Indeed winds rapidly increasing over southern FL from north to south starting in Miami-Dade and working up the coast:

MIAMI HVY RAIN 74 71 91 E14G25 29.92S FOG
WEST KENDALL LGT RAIN 75 73 94 E14G23 29.89F FOG
HOMESTEAD RAIN 76 74 91 E22G31 29.88F FOG

[RL3AO]

Recon suggests a 350 movement or so.

[tolakram]

KEY WEST

[johngaltfla]

As and if it continues to get more organized the forecast will hopefully come into focus. Remember that Charley was forecast to hit near Tampa Bay then it pulled a head fake. Everything is dependent on the ridge breaking down. Has anyone seen any reports from the high altitude recon of that ridge???? Just curious as that data would influence the models I would think.

Looking at the Accuweather radar out of Ft. Myers and she does appear to be getting her act together and fast....

[lbvbl]

What is taking PBC so long to close schools?

[bosag]

What a pain in the neck w/ PBC school district. Everyone around us is closed tomorrow but us? You'd think they'd have a hint by now.

Barb in Jupiter

[KWT]

Looks like its tracking close to north now, maybe still NNW its hard to tell as I've not seen latest recon fixes.

Most models still have this landfalling about the same location as before because some don't have much if any easterly motion in that northerly track.

[gatorcane]

What a pain in the neck w/ PBC school district. Everyone around us is closed tomorrow but us? You'd think they'd have a hint by now.

Barb in Jupiter

Not only that but the NWS Miami has increased the wind speed probability for Palm Beach County with 55mph gusts possible tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pressure down near 1002mb in Key West right now.

[StJoe]

I see so many new faces on here, and a whole bunch of guests...I was just wondering if we set a new record on S2K? Love this site; problem is I can't get anything done. I guess the first part of having a problem is admitting it.

Hello, my name is Joe, and I'm addicted to S2K? Is there a 12 step program??? Or do I just go cold turkey and shut off the computer? Just thinking about it makes me shake...

[RL3AO]

Most users ever online was 671 on Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:31 am


Yes we did.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At the rate this storm is moving right now, we could be seeing a landfall late tonight or early morning IMO.

I agree. At the rate it is moving now, I predict that we see a landfall within the next 12-16 hours (which would mean sometime between 2:38am and 6:38am).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[JonathanBelles]

Pinellas EOC has ordered Level A Evacuation with shelters opening later today...more info when I have it.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 18:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Fay1
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 18:17:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°14'N 81°38'W (24.23N 81.63W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the SSE (157°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,428m (4,685ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WSW (250°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 4° at 42kts (From the N at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WSW (256°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:33:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY

[johngaltfla]

All of our local mets said that if the ridge keeps her out in the Gulf Stream longer and moving more NNW that she would intensify overnight even more so. To what degree of intensification was the question and the idea of the sharp east turn was pretty much dismissed by all of them once it passed Key West. They figured the ridge might hold longer than forecast. I just wish we had some up to the minute information on that. Ah to be a pro.....

[gatorcane]

this thing has to go NNE at some point, probably within the next 12 hours or so...I think the NW movement is permanently over and its NNW to NNE here on out.

look at the amplified trough digging into northern Miss and Georgia...

[Dee Bee]

From the Palm Beach Community College (Lake Worth, Palm Beach Gardens, Boca Raton, and Belle Glade campuses) home page:

Tropical Storm Fay Update
Posted 11:30 a.m. Monday, August 18, 2008

At this time, all campuses of Palm Beach Community College are open for usual operations, as we continue to closely monitor reports from the National Hurricane Center.

While FAU has announced it will close at noon today, there is no evacuation shutdown ordered; therefore PBCC at Boca Raton will continue operating as scheduled.

The next Hurricane Center update will be issued at 2 p.m. today, and we will issue an updated College announcement based on that data. Please continue to check the PBCC home page, http://www.pbcc.edu for updates.