ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cpdaman]

Fay is almost subtropical in appearance, since there is very little convection south and west of the center at this time - it seems that Key West residents might see some sun before the afternoon is over...

good observation frank, while people say this is starting to look good, it is missing convection on it's southern side, should a blob fire south of key west i will be on that band wagon, but otherwise it appears the LLC has just got it's act together Se of key west and that's about it so far

[StJoe]

Thats great news! At least my donations are well spent here!!!

So, are you admitting to a problem as well?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fay is almost subtropical in appearance, since there is very little convection south and west of the center at this time - it seems that Key West residents might see some sun before the afternoon is over...

good observation frank, while people say this is starting to look good, it is missing convection on it's southern side, should a blob fire south of key west i will be on that band wagon, but otherwise it appears the LLC has just got it's act together Se of key west and that's about it so far

Kind of reminds me of TS/Hurricane Gabrielle in 2001...

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/ra ... rielle.gif

[NativeFloridaGirl]

SE Metro Florida winds...

Looking at the ADAS mesonet grids, it seems like weak surface ridging was holding across Broward and Palm Beach counties earlier today. This afternoon the ridging has lifted more north (currently from Martin County north) and the low-level flow across all of Southeast Florida is falling more under Fay's influence. I suspect that the metro areas from Palm Beach south are in a transitory period between the ridge influence and Fay's circulation, and if so, the winds should start ramping-up over the next several hours. Indeed, Miami is beginning to report stronger winds.

- Jay

So do you mean to say I won't feel any effects from Fay here in Martin County?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

banding now on the south side....deeper convection near center. I am certain Fay is intensifying at a pretty good rate now....CAT 1 at landfall very likely...at least

[KWT]

In some ways it does not look like a classic system but then again there is a ULL still only a little while ago and the upper level trough is also digging down so its not going to look at all classic.

The fact is however it does have some fairly deep convection now over the center, the radar shows some decent returns near the Keys and only a little away from the center as well.

[StJoe]

If you ask me, I think PBC is shooting itself in the foot this time. When the general consensus around you is in agreement about closing down...normally you go with the trend. Major foot in the mouth this time Palm Beach. My kids get out of school at 4 today; about the same time we will probably start seeing the nasty weather starting to come in.

[RL3AO]

Key West is 25 mi NNW of the latest VDM. It will probably make landfall over Key West, or just a few miles to the east (near the airport).

[gatorcane]

In some ways it does not look like a classic system but then again there is a ULL still only a little while ago and the upper level trough is also digging down so its not going to look at all classic.

The fact is however it does have some fairly deep convection now over the center, the radar shows some decent returns near the Keys and only a little away from the center as well.

its gotten far enough away from the ULL now --- so the ULL is not inhibiting any longer.

[NEXRAD]

SE Metro Florida winds...

Looking at the ADAS mesonet grids, it seems like weak surface ridging was holding across Broward and Palm Beach counties earlier today. This afternoon the ridging has lifted more north (currently from Martin County north) and the low-level flow across all of Southeast Florida is falling more under Fay's influence. I suspect that the metro areas from Palm Beach south are in a transitory period between the ridge influence and Fay's circulation, and if so, the winds should start ramping-up over the next several hours. Indeed, Miami is beginning to report stronger winds.

- Jay

So do you mean to say I won't feel any effects from Fay here in Martin County?

No - Martin county will still see impact from Fay, just that the transition into the tropical storm's circulation flow will be a bit delayed (as it has been farther south). Late tonight or early Tuesday you should see winds on the increase.

- Jay

[KWT]

I also think there is an increasing chance of making it to minimal hurricane unless it takes a jog east towards the south coast of Florida, as you say gatorcane there is some banding with the main convection still on the north/east side. I think there is some shear but its obviously no where near as bad as it was before and its still easing off.

RL3AO, yep center should pass very close by, the worst conditions should be arriving around now with strong TS gusts.

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

banding now on the south side....deeper convection near center. I am certain Fay is intensifying at a pretty good rate now....CAT 1 at landfall very likely...at least

latest recon does not really support that.......still 1002 mb slight movement NW

[StJoe]

Update from the idiots:

Tropical Storm Fay Update #1
August 18, 2008 - 2:35 p.m.

Palm Beach County School Age Child Care programs will be open on schedule today - Monday, August 18.

Palm Beach County Community Schools and all other after school activities are cancelled for tonight.

District officials are closely monitoring Tropical Storm Fay from the County Emergency Operations Center. Due to the timing of the most accurate information from the center, the announcement about school operations for Tuesday, August 19, will be made at approximately 6 p.m. today--Monday.

Employees and parents will be notified through a telephone call out to their homes, the local media, the District Hotline--357-7500, this Web site, and The Education Network - District TV Station Ch. 19 (Comcast).

At this time, Lake Shore Middle School is the only school that will open as a shelter tonight.

What is there purpose in doing this I ask?

[gatorcane]

very, very deep convection now just north of the center:

[NativeFloridaGirl]

I just got the call that Martin County schools are closed tomorrow and sports practices are canceled for this afternoon as well. I think my kids will be dancing in the streets!

~Beth~

[capepoint]

lowest recon obs was 998mb. Already have grond obs in keys of 1002.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

banding now on the south side....deeper convection near center. I am certain Fay is intensifying at a pretty good rate now....CAT 1 at landfall very likely...at least

latest recon does not really support that.......still 1002 mb slight movement NW

Once again latest VDM has pressure down another MB to 1001mb its not 1002 any more.

[StJoe]

very, very deep convection now just north of the center:

Do you think that convection will whip around and get stronger on the way back...if so, we should see some real nasty stuff later...

[Sanibel]

CMC from last night might have been on to something.


Winds picking up here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the center continues moving N at 14mph throughout the rest of today, and assuming landfall is right at Naples, then this storm should be coming ashore in about 9 hours (~12am). If Fay speeds up or comes ashore further south, then it would be sooner, and if Fay slows down or comes ashore further north, it would be later.

No matter what, it is definitely going to be an interesting evening!