ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[JtSmarts]

Hi I am JtSmarts, and I have been addicted to Storm2k for five years.

[HURAKAN]

Intensity of the convection is increasing near the center.

[Sanibel]

That tight compact core is what you don't want to see if you are trying to avoid fast intensification. I'm afraid this one is coming right at us on NHC track.

[KWT]

Yeah exactly any westerly motion is obviously related to the ULL easing off and the convection building westwards and SW at long last rather then being displaced like it was about 12hrs ago.

Gatorcane, it looks very impressive right now, that looksl ike a CDO to me and I bet its starting to look good on microwave imagery now, cat-1 still looking more than possible.

[MusicCityMan]

Possibly she's trying to improve herself and strengthen to a Cat 1?

[JtSmarts]

So unless it slows down again, we should expect landfall VERY early in the morning???

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 181918
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
320 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY MADE LANDFALL OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA
AT 3 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1918.shtml

[tolakram]

http://mycampage.com/keywestcam

I'm wondering if this image is delayed. I now see calm winds and while it was bright it's getting darker quickly.

This image from near landfall.

[tgenius]

So is it still going to cross SW FL over to SE FL and out to the Atlantic or are those models just crazy?

[NEXRAD]

On IRWV you can notice deepening convection just northwest of Fay's center, and this core convective cluster seems to have a better satellite presentation, overall. Outflow continues to look reasonably good north of the storm and has shown some slight improvements towards the northwest. Furthermore, some new cells are starting to fire to the SE of the core cluster. From these observations, I'm thinking Fay will intensify a little during the next 6-hours.

- Jay

[KWT]

Whilst I know posts about posting is not allowed but I think its worth saying this probably has been the most active day on this board since at least 2005....

[Sanibel]

[Sanibel]

I see the "ragged TS" talk has subsided.

[johngaltfla]

Looks like a 345-350 movement still in every loop, radar or sat that I see still. But she's definitely winding up. Once she clears the dry air, youch.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on the current movement per EYW (Key West) radar and satellite data, landfall may occur as early as tonight in the vicinity of Naples, Florida. Movement appears to be nearly due north, with hints of a slight, intermittent west component (NNW?).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I believe marginal Category 1 status (65 kt/75 mph) is very attainable, though those winds and the majority of the moderate/strong TS winds would be concentrated within a small area near the core (along the SW Florida coastline).

[gatorcane]

RI going on?

[tolakram]

Ok, I know I said this was an illusion but boy does it look to be moving northwest or west.

[CourierPR]

Local 10 Met. Trent Aric said at last update that Fay is slowing forward speed.

[deltadog03]

Looks almost due north. Looks like naples is gonna get steamrolled

[JonathanBelles]

Manatee County Schools are now closed.