ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

What is "TINO"? Thanks! RW

Three
In
Name
Only

[HarlequinBoy]

This storm is looking worse and worse by the hour...The shear and dry air appear to be winning the war......Regardless of how low the winds may end up being upon landfall, this is still going to bring A LOT of rain, and probably flodding rains since it won't be moving that fast once it hits land.

You are saying the exact opposite of some others? Who is right?

[Normandy]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

[xironman]

Gus is finally popping convection on the east side, just look at the storms blowing up on the northeast side of the eye. I have been watching this since 2am and if is the first time it has looked good

[cpdaman]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

the key to this (given similiar upper level conditons) is a path that

1. takes it over the loop current
2. is moving very fast (after exiting loop current thru landfall)

[Windy]

If it's reorganizing, where is the eye in the below image, and that is the latest image. I don't see where it looks better to me......From looking at the previous images, the eye has always shows up on the visibles, but it's still not showing up on the AVN image below and the storm looks lopsided to me.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Those are older images, those loops update at a slower rate and sometimes the java loops don't refresh correctly. Besides, why use IR when we have visual.

I don't know about you, but I can tell a lot more from IR than a can from Visual, though vis tends to give information that IR can't, and visa versa.

[soonertwister]

If it's reorganizing, where is the eye in the below image, and that is the latest image. I don't see where it looks better to me......From looking at the previous images, the eye has always shows up on the visibles, but it's still not showing up on the AVN image below and the storm looks lopsided to me.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

That image is almost an hour old. A lot has changed since then.

[rtd2]

For those interested, I used the latest recon data to work out it's current trajectory (for the past 98 minutes):

I used 25'51''N, 86'33''W to 26'2''N, 86'54'' and used the FCC website to account for differences in heading dependent upon latitude to get a precise value of:

300.3 degrees at 21.9 knots.
Note that the heading for the previous six hours was an average of 315 degrees at 15 knots.

So it has sped up a little and for the past 1.5 hours has been heading on a more westerly track than prior.

Sped up a LITTLE? if those numbers were accurate it would push landfall WAY up....

[cpdaman]

If it's reorganizing, where is the eye in the below image, and that is the latest image. I don't see where it looks better to me......From looking at the previous images, the eye has always shows up on the visibles, but it's still not showing up on the AVN image below and the storm looks lopsided to me.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Those are older images, those loops update at a slower rate and sometimes the java loops don't refresh correctly. Besides, why use IR when we have visual.

I don't know about you, but I can tell a lot more from IR than a can from Visual, though vis tends to give information that IR can't, and visa versa.

ramdis visible is updated 25 minutes ahead of the IR of other sites, thus showing trends faster

[superfly]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

It's not even close to landfall yet. In fact, it is still partly over northern edges of the loop current.

[Steve Cosby]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

It hasn't gotten to the trash water yet. There was some research and studies in the past (I have no clue how to find them now) that the silt and other stuff in the water coming down from the Mississippi River caused the strength of the thunderstorms in a tropical storm to lower a notch.

[Mattie]

CrazyC83
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New postPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 2:25 pm
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Looks like Gustav is waking up on visible for the first time since Cuba.

This storm is looking worse and worse by the hour...The shear and dry air appear to be winning the war......Regardless of how low the winds may end up being upon landfall, this is still going to bring A LOT of rain, and probably flodding rains since it won't be moving that fast once it hits land.

two back to back posts . . . . well? which is it really?

[Derek Ortt]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

the key to this (given similiar upper level conditons) is a path that

1. takes it over the loop current
2. is moving very fast (after exiting loop current thru landfall)

cat 4's and 5's weaken in the NGOM

threes tend to remain steady

1s and 2s can intensity

[KWT]

Eye starting to look a little squashed again as strong convection blows up in the N.Eyewall. Indeed looks like the eyewall is now totally closed again, so I think we should expect to see some modest strengthening again.

[ConvergenceZone]

This storm is looking worse and worse by the hour...The shear and dry air appear to be winning the war......Regardless of how low the winds may end up being upon landfall, this is still going to bring A LOT of rain, and probably flodding rains since it won't be moving that fast once it hits land.

You are saying the exact opposite of some others? Who is right?

The next NHC update willl tell us who is right....
I have no problem being wrong....Once I see the eye pop out on the AVN, then I'll jump on the development bandwagon, but until then, will just wait for the next update by the NHC....

[caneman]

Anyone know what the winds are here in the Tampa Bay area? Specifically along the beach of Pinellas County. Both peak wind gust and sustained. I'm surprised at how strong they've been.

[cpdaman]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

the key to this (given similiar upper level conditons) is a path that

1. takes it over the loop current
2. is moving very fast (after exiting loop current thru landfall)

cat 4's and 5's weaken in the NGOM

threes tend to remain steady

1s and 2s can intensity

dont want to deflect thread.....but then derek what did camile do (or was it just that much stronger prior to landfall)

[Steve Cosby]

cat 4's and 5's weaken in the NGOM

threes tend to remain steady

1s and 2s can intensity

dont want to deflect thread.....but then derek what did camile do (or was it just that much stronger prior to landfall)

He is speaking in generalities - there are ALWAYS exceptions (remember Fay? )

[BigB0882]

Would someone mind educating me on this. I see people referring to direction of movement as 280, 300, 275, etc. I know 270-300 is in the WNW to NW but can someone tell me what number signifies W and what number signifies N so I can know what the inbetween numbers mean?

[Normandy]

Well the one good thing that will come out of this: I believe the myth of "NGOM major canes must weaken prior to landfall" is going to be proven false by Gustav. Looking much better now.

the key to this (given similiar upper level conditons) is a path that

1. takes it over the loop current
2. is moving very fast (after exiting loop current thru landfall)

cat 4's and 5's weaken in the NGOM

threes tend to remain steady

1s and 2s can intensity

Maybe I am totally off base here, but I think the reason Category 5 hurricane tend to weaken is simply because this: They have to eventually! A cat5 can't be sustained for a long time, as inner core processes like ERC's tend to happen. Don't ERC's tend to allow more dry air to be sucked into the core? All NGOM hurricanes havn't collapsed at landfall...Frederick and Betsy are great examples. Humberto, if over water for 12 more hours, would have been a borderline 3/4. My point is that it is possible for an already severe hurricane (which Gustav is) to strike the NGOM while deepening/steady state.