ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[HURAKAN]

QUIKSCAT is not seeing a well-defined circulation either.

[Weatherfreak000]

Regardless whether they look good or not , have convection over the center or any of those variables it should not matter.


The case in point is simply an area with a circulation...convective activity at least very close to the center and wind speeds to justify is a TROPICAL CYCLONE.


Were 93L to make landfall it would bring TROPICAL CYCLONE conditions to the area. There is no other reason to debate this because I was under the assumption science came after people's safety.

And I know 93L isn't affecting land but the GOM inconsistency stands here...any cyclone producing TC conditions should be mentioned as it is. It as an absolute freaking joke the NHC tries to tell the public 93L right now is a "Tropical Disturbance"

This inconsistency desperately needs to be solved...or we will have these arguments every season.

[HURAKAN]

"cough" Erin, Grace "cough"

[CrazyC83]

Unflagged 50 kt barbs there.

[fci]

Regardless whether they look good or not , have convection over the center or any of those variables it should not matter.


The case in point is simply an area with a circulation...convective activity at least very close to the center and wind speeds to justify is a TROPICAL CYCLONE.


Were 93L to make landfall it would bring TROPICAL CYCLONE conditions to the area. There is no other reason to debate this because I was under the assumption science came after people's safety.

And I know 93L isn't affecting land but the GOM inconsistency stands here...any cyclone producing TC conditions should be mentioned as it is. It as an absolute freaking joke the NHC tries to tell the public 93L right now is a "Tropical Disturbance"

This inconsistency desperately needs to be solved...or we will have these arguments every season.

A Tropical Wave can also bring "Tropical Cyclone" conditions to an area.
Do you advocate throwing all the rules out and naming systems solely based on conditions?

To take it on exaggerated step further; a line of severe afternoon thunderstorms can bring "Tropical Cyclone" conditions to an area in the name of high winds and excessive rainfall. Do we name those too?

The science is clear and was explained by the NHC Forecaster in his reply to Sandy.

[HURAKAN]

[somethingfunny]

Something here might have to do with the new NHC director Bill Read. There was some controversy over the past few years regarding the NHC naming storms that had no business being named, possibly to secure more funding based on an inflated hurricane threat.....I'm not saying that could be true one way or the other. Simply saying the new director might have a different philosophy on the naming of a tropical cyclone. After all, just because a storm brings 40mph winds and it rotates and it's over the water....does not make it a tropical storm by definition. I think we all know this. Granted, they did name Arthur after the circulation was already inland.

Side note; not to start up with those asinine "look how many posts this thread has!" posts but......44 pages for an INVEST

[Weatherfreak000]

Regardless whether they look good or not , have convection over the center or any of those variables it should not matter.


The case in point is simply an area with a circulation...convective activity at least very close to the center and wind speeds to justify is a TROPICAL CYCLONE.


Were 93L to make landfall it would bring TROPICAL CYCLONE conditions to the area. There is no other reason to debate this because I was under the assumption science came after people's safety.

And I know 93L isn't affecting land but the GOM inconsistency stands here...any cyclone producing TC conditions should be mentioned as it is. It as an absolute freaking joke the NHC tries to tell the public 93L right now is a "Tropical Disturbance"

This inconsistency desperately needs to be solved...or we will have these arguments every season.

A Tropical Wave can also bring "Tropical Cyclone" conditions to an area.
Do you advocate throwing all the rules out and naming systems solely based on conditions?

To take it on exaggerated step further; a line of severe afternoon thunderstorms can bring "Tropical Cyclone" conditions to an area in the name of high winds and excessive rainfall. Do we name those too?

The science is clear and was explained by the NHC Forecaster in his reply to Sandy.

I stated the system had a Circulation....convection very near center and verified TC wind speed...this ISN'T a severe afternoon thunderstorm and it ISN'T a tropical wave. It's hard to take your debate seriously when your not putting into consideration what IS compared to what without a doubt ISN'T.

Same as I can say in 94L's case...it will be inland within 24 hours so just ignore that Recon now supports STS formation.

Edited by mf_dolphin

[CrazyC83]

So are going to be 2 unnamed storms in the post-analysis at this rate?

[fci]

I deleted my post since mf dolphin's edited weatherfreak's post above and my reply became unnecessary!

Thank you Marshall.

[wxman57]

The LLC is still questionable as far as its existence and particularly its organization. And there remains no organized convection near the center. So it doesn't qualify for an upgrade.

Here's a recent surface plot. Not much of an LLC. We'll see what those ships report once the center moves to their north. But winds blowing perpendicular to the center (toward and away from) doesn't point to a well-defined LLC.

[HURAKAN]

If this system doesn't develop in the next 12 to 24 hrs, it may never develop based on the shear map.

[Frank2]

It reminds me of one of many "classic El-Nino tropical storms" of the early and mid 1980's - they always had an exposed LLC due to westerly shear, which meant that just west of the center the weather was usually good enough for a picnic...

That's one sure sign of an early end to this season - the westerlies are already dropping south...

LOL

[CrazyC83]

It reminds me of one of many "classic El-Nino tropical storms" of the early and mid 1980's - they always had an exposed LLC due to westerly shear, which meant that just west of the center the weather was usually good enough for a picnic...

That's one sure sign of an early end to this season - the westerlies are already dropping south...

LOL

That doesn't really have a lot of impact in the subtropics though where late-season storms often form...

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

There is the center.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is the center.

I can understand the uncertainty/hesitation in not upgrading a weak and poorly defined center with the deep convection displaced to the East. 94L, how that isn't sub-tropical with a 3ºC differential per VDM, that is a different story.

[RL3AO]

Now that is a much tighter center than last night. It now likely has a closed, low-level circulation.


PS: They are flying at 132 meters!

[wxman57]

Actual surface obs near the center indicate a wave axis vs. a closed LLC. The clouds you're looking at are several thousand feet above the surface. It's just a disturbance with disorganized convection east of an exposed mid-level circulation center with a weak or nonexistent surface circulation.

Here's a new plot. Note the observations don't indicate a closed circulation:

[HURAKAN]

Thanks wxman57 for bringing clarity to the issue. Poor 93L has never been able to take hold.