ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

Fay may smell the everglades out like Katrina did. Remember how Katrina was to go out Ft Myers but when she hit land below Miami she turn south to the Everglades and went out the south end of Fla. What a surpriser that was. I was watching it and I didn't believe what I was seeing.

This is not a forcast. Just talking about the everglades

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looks almost due north. Looks like naples is gonna get steamrolled

Gee...Thanks

[gatorcane]

Looks almost due north. Looks like naples is gonna get steamrolled

agreed this thing is gaining strength and I mean fast.

[KWT]

Yep Miami I've had Naples as landfall as well, if it keeps up its current speed its got probably about another 6hr to strengthen over water IMO. Track looks to me about 345-350 as well.

Also the convection is looking really good now as well, certainly not a ragged TS now thats for sure, its just a question of whether the winds can catch up with the improvement in presentation or not?

[lbvbl]

UGH this is so frustrating. What could PBC possibly be thinking. Every county surounding them has cancelled school. It's just logical that they would follow suit.

[dmaui]

Definitely want to add my thanks to the list to the pro mets and educated amateurs on this board. I learn more here than anywhere else, and you are all patient with us less educated folk.

[HurricaneHunter914]

A wobble to the west could bring her farther north into Lee/Charlotte County though...

[CajunMama]

We actually have a thread going on in off topic about the record number of users today.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=102618&p=1778151#p1778151

[NEXRAD]

RI going on?

No, rapid intensification is very unlikely. Fay's appearance is more that of a sheared-transitioning hybrid system. East of the center the squall bands are not embedded within a more continuous area of convection, suggesting there's a dry-air factor in play, as well. While some further strengthening is quite possible, I'd be surprised to see Fay go much above 65-knot intensity prior to landfall.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

RI going on?

Not yet, but if RI is going to occur it would be with a small tight core like Fay currently has. It is easier to quickly pull a tight core around once the SST's force it. Watch for that west side convection to wrap first. Right now you can see the ULL still has a dry arm into the SE quadrant.

[JonathanBelles]

Alachua
TS Wind Watch

Baker
TS Wind Watch

Bradford
TS Wind Watch

Brevard
TS Warning (south)
TS Watch (north)
NASA is closed

Broward
TS Warning
TS Wind Warning
Tornado Watch
FAU closing on Monday at noon
County Government offices at noon on Monday
Broward County libraries will be closed all day on Monday
Broward County parks will be close at noon on Monday
Animal Care shelters in Pompano and Fort Lauderdale will be closed on Monday
Broward County public schools will be closed on Monday
Hollywood Christian Academy will be closed on Monday


Charlotte
Hurricane Warning
Voluntary Evacuation

Citrus
None

Clay
TS Wind Watch

Collier
Hurricane Watch
TS Wind Warning
TS Warning
Tornado Watch
Voluntary Evacuation of those west and south of US 41
No School on Tuesday
All Government is closed

Columbia
TS Wind Watch

DeSoto
Hurricane Warning

Duval
TS Watch
TS Wind Watch

Flagler
TS Wind Watch
TS Watch

Gilchrist
TS Wind Watch

Glades
TS Wind Warning
Tornado Watch

Hamilton
TS Wind Watch

Hardee
Hurricane Wind Watch
No School Tuesday

Hendry
TS Wind Warning
Tornado Watch

Hernando
No School Tuesday

Highlands
---Hurricane Wind Watch
---No School Tuesday
---Sandbags available at the EOC, 6850 W. George Blvd, Sebring, Sheriff’s Tower Road Monday at noon (up to 25 bags)
---Shelters---
Will open Monday evening 8/18/08 at 1800 hours
Avon Park Recreation Center – 207 E. State Street, Avon Park
Woodlawn Elementary School in the cafeteria – 718 Fielder Blvd, Sebring
Lake Placid High School – 202 Green Dragon Drive, Lake Placid

Hillsborough
Hurricane Watch
No School Tuesday
Local State of Emergency

Indian River
TS Watch

Lake
TS Wind Watch
No School

Lee
Hurricane Warning

Manatee
Hurricane Warning
No School
Government is closed on Tuesday

Marion
TS Wind Watch

Martin
TS Watch
No School

Miami-Dade
TS Warning
TS Wind Warning
Tornado Watch
Sandbags are available in the City of Homestead
11th Judicial Circuit of Florida will be closed on Monday
No School Monday
Tolls: Suspended on Turnpike Ext. NB, Homestead to Miami-Dade line

Monroe
Hurricane Watch
TS Warning
Tornado Watch
Local State of Emergency
Evacuation of all visitors
No School Monday or Tuesday
City and County offices closed Monday
Sheriffs office is closed Monday and Tuesday
---Shelters to open at 7pm---
Key West High School on Flagler Avenue in Key West
Sugarloaf School on Crane Boulevard, just off the bayside of the 19 mile marker of Highway U.S. One
Stanley Switlik Elementary School at 3400 Overseas Highway in Marathon
Coral Shores High School, mile marker 90 on Highway U.S. One in Islamorada
Key West Airport will close at 10am

Nassau
TS Watch
TS Wind Watch

Okeechobee
TS Wind Watch

Orange
TS Wind Watch
UCF is closed

Osceola
TS Wind Watch
No School

Palm Beach
TS Warning
TS Wind Warning
Tornado Watch
FAU closing on Monday at noon

Pasco
none

Pinellas
Hurricane Watch
St. Petersburg College is closed on Monday
Sandbag information: http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency/sandbags.htm
Eckerd College is closed
All school is closed Tuesday
Local State of Emergency
Mandatory evacuation of Level A areas at 6am
Shelters will open at 6am
Government will be closed Tuesday

Polk
Hurricane Wind Watch
---Special Needs Shelters open Monday--- (pre register at (863) 534-5600 )
* Haines City Adult Day Care Center – 751 Scenic Hwy,
* Haines CityLakeland Adult Day Care Center – 1200 Southern Ave., Lakeland
* Polk County Health Department (PCHD) Bartow Specialty Unit – 1255 Brice Blvd., Bartow
Sandbags will be available at
* Golfview – 2902 Hwy 60 East in Lake Wales
* Jan Phyl – 333 American Spirit Blvd in Winter Haven
* Providence – 8936 Hwy 98 N in north LakelandWillow Oak – 4210 Willis Road in Mulberry
*Maximum of 30 sanbags
No School Tuesday or Wednesday

Putnum
TS Wind Watch


Sarasota
Hurricane Warning
Local State of Emergency
Mandatory Level A Evacuation
Shelters will open after 5 p.m. Monday

Seminole
TS Wind Watch
No School
SCC is closed

St. Johns
TS Wind Watch
TS Watch

St. Lucie
FAU closing on Monday at noon
TS Watch
No School

Suwannee
TS Wind Watch

Union
TS Wind Watch

Volusia
TS Wind Watch


Updated Watches/Warnings 8-18 12:50p
Closures/Evacs 8-18 3:30pm

I am watching too many counties, so these updates are going to take awhile

[HURAKAN]

Likely to go way up tomorrow and the days afterwards:

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 18, 2008

11.27 ft.

About 3 ft. below its historical average for this time of year.

[KWT]

I don't think it has time to get above 65kts either Jay but its presentation has been known to support top enmd cat-2's before, just this will run out of water long before we get close to that stage.

Looks a tiny bit east of the NHC track IMO and upon reveiwing the loops I agree motion is close to northerly. A slight jog east would take this through a little bit of land before getting into the Naples region.

[Agua]

All in SW FL take care. It's going to suck for you guys with the heat and power outages.

[ronjon]

RAD clearly showing a NW jog - probably temporary but every slight shift west now means a LF further north. Fay is still dealing with dry air to the west and south. I'd like to see increasing convection on her southern side for any rapid deepening. The NHC track with a LF near Ft Myers still looks on track. Nice to have RADAR to track these storms - no surprises.

[Evil Jeremy]

Few powerful rainbands about to effect SFL:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[cpdaman]

I see the "ragged TS" talk has subsided.

you spoke to soon, that litte LLC that has been in SW corner of convection has a mind of it's own LOL it appears to have been moving West for over an hour now, while the rest of the circulation and relatively low pressures is displaced eastward.

big convection north and west of key west, but it does have a weired LLC

edit i see that SW side spin pulled back east as the rain bands to the South became a little bit closer rapid in, so will see if this improvement holds

[UKane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Fay is very well organised and is slowly intensifiying. Pressure is down to 996.1mb with winds up to 65mph. I think that before landfall that she will reach 70mph.... she will then make a loopdeloop in the Bahamas and make landfall as a cat 1 hurricane on florida.... AGAIN before going into the GOM. from there i have no idea.

[tolakram]

Um, well, the second eye.

KEY WEST 999 MB

windshift to the east which makes sense, just south of the center.

[Sanibel]

If Fay were to suddenly vent up the trough like Charley that could cause a sudden jump in strength.