ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

Recon finds central pressure of 998mb.

Seems to be organizing.

[johngaltfla]

Mike Seidel on TWC just said that they don't think it will intensify to hurricane. Now I'm worried.

I saw that, banged my head into the wall, then turned back to my local met. Here in SRQ he was quite blunt; if the path kept it on a NNW bent and it came ashore in the Charlotte Harbor area it would probably be a hurricane.

I think Seidel and TWC demonstrated a new level of irresponsible behavior which encourages people to take Cat 1's and 2's too lightly. If this thing drags across our county for 24 hours like they are talking about, we could see a lot more rain than we need and that is just as bad as it gets. Our rivers, small as they are, do not need 8-12 inches of rain right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's stalled again...No question about it..Reorginizing just like she did below Cuba..

[BigA]

For what its worth, the absolute lowest pressure (997.7)was found a bit to the southwest of Key West.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Tampa Bay Hurricane"]***
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This looks like a 75 mph hurricane on satellite posted on the previous pages,
and it looks like with a very tight core of very intense convection
that intensification is occuring at a fast rate. The trough may be
venting this system and aiding intensification. Sea surface temperatures
and oceanic heat content also support fast intensification. This looks very
similar to the tightening, intensification, and trough venting that occurred
with Hurricane Charley. This could easily reach category 2 especially
if landfall is Fort Myers northward, or at least north of Naples.[/quote]



I respectfully disagree... from a presentation standpoint it is not all that impressive looking IMO...a typical, lop-sided TS that we often see head up the WC of the GOM...

[Blown Away]

Looks like Fay is moving due N and not NNW anymore.

[vbhoutex]

***
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



This looks like a 75 mph hurricane on satellite posted on the previous pages,
and it looks like with a very tight core of very intense convection
that intensification is occuring at a fast rate. The trough may be
venting this system and aiding intensification. Sea surface temperatures
and oceanic heat content also support fast intensification. This looks very
similar to the tightening, intensification, and trough venting that occurred
with Hurricane Charley. This could easily reach category 2 especially
if landfall is Fort Myers northward, or at least north of Naples.

I don't think it is possbile personally. I just posted about the core above. I do think Cat 1, maybe even high CAT1 is possible. Charley was not fighting of dry air like Fay is and Charley was already a CAT1 as he came off the N. coast of Cuba. The venting is similar, but not as strong as with Charley I don't think either(feel free to prove me wrong because the is jmho). Also iirc Florida Bay is not very deep so there may not be as much heat content available in the shallower waters.

[oyster_reef]

She's stalled again...No question about it..Reorginizing just like she did below Cuba..

Still moving NNW... as seen on Radar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

She's stalled again...No question about it..Reorginizing just like she did below Cuba..

I am going to have to respectfully disagree. I still see a steady north motion on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

perhaps slowing as well, NHC called for a possible slowing of forward speed earlier.

WXMAN do you think this could stall out or slow dramatically before or after SW florida landfall

[Myersgirl]

LOCAL MET HERE IN FT MYERS EXPECTS THIS TO GO EAST OF US, LOOKING FOR AN EASTERN TRACT SHIFT AT 5:00

[tolakram]

Could someone post a link to one of the rapidly updating visible loops? I would be most appreciative.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[BigA]

From what I read in Kerry Emmanuel's book, Divine Wind, apparently shallow water can help tropical cyclones, as they cannot upwell the water while passing over it, because warm water extends all the way down to the ocean floor. I do not know the validity of this, though.

[Bgator]

Just went through a strong storm here in coconut grove, not too windy, but HEAVY rain.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon finds central pressure of 998mb.

found 997.7mb pressure but that will most likely be upped to 998mb

000
URNT15 KNHC 182007
AF304 1706A FAY1 HDOB 42 20080818
195800 2435N 08144W 8434 01468 9984 +175 +170 115018 019 023 000 03
195830 2433N 08145W 8431 01476 9986 +176 +170 113017 018 028 000 03
195900 2432N 08145W 8424 01483 9988 +175 +170 116015 016 015 002 00
195930 2430N 08146W 8429 01478 9985 +178 +170 118014 015 012 003 00
200000 2429N 08147W 8428 01478 9982 +180 +170 115014 015 012 002 00
200030 2427N 08148W 8426 01479 9982 +182 +170 119013 013 014 002 00
200100 2426N 08149W 8432 01473 9980 +185 +170 123012 012 010 002 00
200130 2425N 08149W 8432 01472 9981 +182 +170 121011 012 009 002 03
200200 2423N 08150W 8431 01473 9982 +177 +170 125005 009 008 003 00
200230 2422N 08151W 8422 01481 9981 +178 +170 200002 003 008 003 00
200300 2422N 08151W 8422 01481 9982 +176 +170 231003 005 011 002 00
200330 2419N 08153W 8427 01474 9984 +176 +170 277008 013 012 002 03
200400 2419N 08154W 8419 01491 9982 +180 +170 267009 011 005 002 03
200430 2420N 08155W 8423 01476 9977 +177 +170 336004 005 020 002 00
200500 2421N 08156W 8433 01468 9985 +167 +167 003009 011 019 003 00
200530 2422N 08157W 8429 01475 9990 +164 +164 018012 014 021 003 03
200600 2423N 08159W 8434 01471 9991 +166 +166 026015 017 025 004 00
200630 2424N 08200W 8426 01481 9992 +169 +169 028018 019 028 004 00
200700 2425N 08201W 8429 01479 9992 +173 +170 027019 019 030 007 00
200730 2426N 08203W 8430 01481 9993 +173 +170 026018 019 034 005 00
$$

[tolakram]

Big scary dark cloud approaches.

http://mycampage.com/keywestcam

[KWT]

I think Delta the center was a little further north then that given the wind shift that happened at Key West earlier but I do think the center is fairly broad still.

Pressur eof 998mbs, suggesting pressure is dropping quite quickly now and not surprising given the convectiion blob that has formed over the center recently is looking really impressive.

[tampastorm]

I think there is still some westerly component as seen on the Key West radar.

[HURAKAN]

Fresh and Hot!

[cpdaman]

dry tortugas appears to be taking a beating per radar

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

watch it spin around and whack mike siddell in key west again