ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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vbhoutex
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#8661 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:20 pm

BigA wrote:From what I read in Kerry Emmanuel's book, Divine Wind, apparently shallow water can help tropical cyclones, as they cannot upwell the water while passing over it, because warm water extends all the way down to the ocean floor. I do not know the validity of this, though.

That is a good point and definitely makes sense. However, I am not sure how much upwelling there is with Fay since she isn't too strong. Maybe a promet can speak to this point?
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#8662 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:20 pm

definitely has slowed in forward speed....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8663 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:20 pm

Key West radar suggests slowdown. This could be track shift? I'm not sure what I'm seeing. It could just be dry air slot tricks.

Decided to stay. Going for bike ride to causeway to see conditions before it lets loose.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8664 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:21 pm

Myersgirl wrote:LOCAL MET HERE IN FT MYERS EXPECTS THIS TO GO EAST OF US, LOOKING FOR AN EASTERN TRACT SHIFT AT 5:00


I have it moving about 20 miles east of Ft. Myers by around sunrise tomorrow. It moved about 15 kts for a while this afternoon. Slowed down not. But that burst in speed took it about 6 hours ahead of schedule along the track.

As for the intensity part, no reason to guess by using satellite. We have many obs all around the center and at least one plane in the storm. It's not a hurricane now. Only about 8 hours to landfall, so not a lot of time to become one. Wouldn't rule it out, but any hurricane winds would be in a small area offshore at landfall.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8665 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:21 pm

Composite loop. It may not be moving west but Key West may yet experience the eastern edge of the convection as it wraps around.

Image
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#8666 Postby 93superstorm » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:22 pm

The big ball of convection is starting to wrap clearly on the avn:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8667 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:23 pm

well this is one messed up storm as far as movement according to these recon fixes. Stair stepping is a understatement with Fay!
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Re:

#8668 Postby Lifesgud2 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:definitely has slowed in forward speed....


I dont get it. Sure its raining here, however I have not even seen a "gust over 10mph".

What gives?
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#8669 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:25 pm

Looks to be eating a lot of dry air or something. Almost no rain to east or south of center.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8670 Postby NEXRAD » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:25 pm

Watch for intensifying bands south and east of Fay's center during the next couple of hours. These bands will rotate northwest to affect Miami-Dade and eventually Broward county.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8671 Postby Bgator » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:29 pm

NEXRAD wrote:Watch for intensifying bands south and east of Fay's center during the next couple of hours. These bands will rotate northwest to affect Miami-Dade and eventually Broward county.

- Jay

Should we expect TS force winds in these bands?
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#8672 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:29 pm

URNT12 KNHC 182027
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 18/20:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
081 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1404 m
D. 40 kt
E. 045 deg 57 nm
F. 108 deg 061 kt
G. 047 deg 088 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 14 C/ 1539 m
J. 18 C/ 1527 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1706A FAY1 OB 25
MAX FL WIND 62 KT E QUAD 18:31:20 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8673 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:30 pm

trying to wrap tighter center 5 mi se of dry tortugas, if she does, more pressure falls could accelerate imo
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Re:

#8674 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Fresh and Hot!


Looks like a hot tower to me. She's getting her thing together.....Pity the poor folks in Ft. Myers/Sanibel...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8675 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:31 pm

Bgator wrote:
NEXRAD wrote:Watch for intensifying bands south and east of Fay's center during the next couple of hours. These bands will rotate northwest to affect Miami-Dade and eventually Broward county.

- Jay

Should we expect TS force winds in these bands?


Over the beaches, probably.
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#8676 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:31 pm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

North at 14? noway!
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#8677 Postby Bgator » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:31 pm

E. 045 deg 57 nm

NNE? Probably just a wobble.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8678 Postby Flakeys » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:32 pm

Can I assume the worst is over for us folks in the upper keys?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8679 Postby NEXRAD » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:32 pm

Bgator wrote:
NEXRAD wrote:Watch for intensifying bands south and east of Fay's center during the next couple of hours. These bands will rotate northwest to affect Miami-Dade and eventually Broward county.

- Jay

Should we expect TS force winds in these bands?


Not from what I'm seeing just yet. I suspect there's interplay between Fay and the Atlantic ridge causing a lull in winds over Southeast Florida.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in Florida Straits

#8680 Postby Bgator » Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Bgator wrote:
NEXRAD wrote:Watch for intensifying bands south and east of Fay's center during the next couple of hours. These bands will rotate northwest to affect Miami-Dade and eventually Broward county.

- Jay

Should we expect TS force winds in these bands?


Over the beaches, probably.

So WXMAN, do you not think that mainland Miami will feel TS winds.
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