ATL: IKE Discussion

[Duddy]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

Its 4:30am here on the east coast right now! lol

Think we might get the advisory before 4/5AM?

[keithy joe]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

Its 4:30am here on the east coast right now! lol

You two are as bad as me when an Atlantic bombogenisis is heading for our shores here in the UK, I'm normally up most of the night. I know it's hardly the same thing, but a good Atlantic storms system can bring mean sustained winds of 50mph+ to coastal areas and gusts in excess of 90mph. I'm looking to intercept a hurricane one day! So I thought I'd join this forum to meet some great US guys and gals! Any mandatory evacuations in place yet for Texas state?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

Its 4:30am here on the east coast right now! lol

Think we might get the advisory before 4/5AM?

should be coming out with in the next 20 minutes however it might be late cause they may wait until recon does one more pass through the center which they are setting up right now.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK. Who on here are from the areas that are due to be affected by Hurricane IKE?

Its 4:30am here on the east coast right now! lol

You two are as bad as me when an Atlantic bombogenisis is heading for our shores here in the UK, I'm normally up most of the night. I know it's hardly the same thing, but a good Atlantic storms system can bring mean sustained winds of 50mph+ to coastal areas and gusts in excess of 90mph. I'm looking to intercept a hurricane one day! So I thought I'd join this forum to meet some great US guys and gals! Any mandatory evacuations in place yet for Texas state?

Welcome to the forum! I think they have issued mandatory special needs evacuations but none that I know of for the general public. I have been trying to get coverage on the national news channels but so far its been mostly political coverage.

[Duddy]

Welcome to the forum! I think they have issued mandatory special needs evacuations but none that I know of for the general public. I have been trying to get coverage on the national news channels but so far its been mostly political coverage.

Yeah, they tuned us out in favor of obamamccainbidenpalin.

[keithy joe]

Ah, you've set a limit on nested quotes! Whoops! Anyway.

Thanks for the Welcome, from one hurricane chaser to another! Albeit the other side of the Atlantic admittedly.

Have any of you guys seen this site: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/0 ... orbit.html

Some lovely shots of the major hurricanes to hit your shores within the last few years, these are high resolution SAT-ORB shots though from major space centres orbiting above us. Pretty impressive some of them! The majestic beauty of mother nature herself.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Welcome to the forum! I think they have issued mandatory special needs evacuations but none that I know of for the general public. I have been trying to get coverage on the national news channels but so far its been mostly political coverage.

Yeah, they tuned us out in favor of obamamccainbidenpalin.

I am sure that through out the day today coverage will pick up on Ike. You guys have not been forgotten. Today however may not have to much coverage of Ike though since today is 9-11. But I am sure they will start having more coverage.

[Rod Hagen]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK.

In that case its good to know the excellent and informative UK guru, KWT should soon be back, keithy joe. Here in Oz its just about evening meal time. Always seems strange watching events like this unfold over the course of the working day when its the wee small hours in the place where they are actually happening!

Cheers

Rod

[Pebbles]

Ah, you've set a limit on nested quotes! Whoops! Anyway.

Thanks for the Welcome, from one hurricane chaser to another! Albeit the other side of the Atlantic admittedly.

Have any of you guys seen this site: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/0 ... orbit.html

Some lovely shots of the major hurricanes to hit your shores within the last few years, these are high resolution SAT-ORB shots though from major space centres orbiting above us. Pretty impressive some of them! The majestic beauty of mother nature herself.

Welcome, there is a UK hurricane chase team that posts on here at times.. maybe you all should hook up.

[Duddy]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 110845
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES...995
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND IT COULD INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N...87.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[Ed Mahmoud]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 87.6W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Code: Select all

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N  93.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  80NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE  90SW 140NW.
34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.4N  95.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...125NE 110SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N  96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.


[keithy joe]

I'm guessing it's pretty early in the morning in the states right now then!?

9.30am here in cloudy dull England UK.

In that case its good to know the excellent and informative UK guru, KWT should soon be back, keithy joe. Here in Oz its just about evening meal time. Always seems strange watching events like this unfold over the course of the working day when its the wee small hours in the place where they are actually happening!

Cheers

Rod

Secretly, I'm a bit of a guru myself! Although don't shout it too loud.

Where's KWT from Rod? I'm studying meteorology at Reading university in England.

I run a UK weather watch forum myself, although I'm looking to chat with some lovely people further afield too, to expand my knowledge on tropical genisis.

[Duddy]

No different really, it will be much closer to Matagorda before landfall than I had hoped.

[dwg71]

land fall just north of matagorda bay around 48 hours from now.

best guestimate would be bay city, tx

[HarlequinBoy]

That's crazy how far east Tropical Storm Warning extend.

[Duddy]

land fall just north of matagorda bay around 48 hours from now.

best guestimate would be bay city, tx

Did you just happen to look at my location under my avatar.

[superfly]

Yup, looks like most models/NHC are zero'ing in on Matagorda. Since there is usually a right hook in the GOM with landfalling canes, I'd say somewhere between Matagorda and Freeport is a good bet right now.

[dwg71]

nhc gives it a 60 percent chance of being a major in 48 hours and 40 percent hurricane 2 or below.

give Galveston a 37 percent chance for hurricane force winds, dont understand that

[dwg71]

land fall just north of matagorda bay around 48 hours from now.

best guestimate would be bay city, tx

Did you just happen to look at my location under my avatar.

ok, ill change it and say palacious, happy now

[Duddy]

land fall just north of matagorda bay around 48 hours from now.

best guestimate would be bay city, tx

Did you just happen to look at my location under my avatar.

ok, ill change it and say palacious, happy now

No! That put's me on the Northern eyewall! Change it to Siberia.