ATL: IKE Discussion

[xironman]

I thought that this http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/09/post_39.html was a nice write up on using the SLOSH model for the bay.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Station 42001 Buoy near centre of Ike showing pressure at 29.43

theres no way that that is correct. The Pressure is not at 997mb!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

That station is right, but it is 137 miles from the the latest vortex:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
For comparison, an estimated pressure according to HDOBs along the recon path that happens to be located 137 miles from the center in that quadrant, that was just estimated, is 997.2 mb.

[superfly]

Ike is picking up forward speed, now moving 11 MPH over the last 2 hours.

[bob rulz]

So basically Ike will stay about steady until the outer eyewall finally takes over, right? It's about time we saw that outer eyewall start to contract.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So basically Ike will stay about steady until the outer eyewall finally takes over, right? It's about time we saw that outer eyewall start to contract.

It is taking over big time right now, it is down to 12 nmi wide. You can see the soild reds wrap around it on Ir right now, I expect a clear eye to form later today. The inner eye is clearly weaking,,,In should not stop this thing from strengthing now. I expect strengthing to start over the next 6 hours,,,,Based on what I can see.

[Diva]

Ike is picking up forward speed, now moving 11 MPH over the last 2 hours.

Wow! He is picking up isn't he? Think this will effect the NHC landfall track down the road?

[southmdwatcher]

The outer eyewall is contracting and the CDO is becoming more symmetrical with deep reds surrounding the center. An eye should pop out after the contraction is completed and the last bit of dry air is mixed out. That looks to be the case by later morning. If not, then maybe Ike will not become an intense storm.

[Seele]

Station 42001 Buoy near centre of Ike showing pressure at 29.43

theres no way that that is correct. The Pressure is not at 997mb!

Recon recently passed very near that bouy. Its readings show that 997 is probably right:


Time:
09:49:00Z
Coordinates:
25.8667N 89.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press:
752.1 mb (~ 22.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
2,444 meters (~ 8,018 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
995.4 mb (~ 29.39 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 35° at 48 knots (From the NE at ~ 55.2 mph)
Air Temp:
14.6°C (~ 58.3°F)
Dew Pt:
14.3°C (~ 57.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

[dwg71]

check water vapor and you can see some dry air entering the center, dont know what effect that will have if any.

[Bunkertor]

[Rod Hagen]

Maybe there is something I am missing here, but the actual plotted track seems to me to be continuously to the north of the earlier predictions, even when it was suggested that landfall was likely to be pretty close to Galveston. Yet the suggested landfall seems to have moved south again. What has actually changed to suggest that the likely target is back further south again? Is it just because it isn't tracking quite as much NW as it was before, or are there some real structural atmospheric changes that are now more likely to push it southwards?

[dwg71]

Maybe there is something I am missing here, but the actual plotted track seems to me to be continuously to the north of the earlier predictions, even when it was suggested that landfall was likely to be pretty close to Galveston. Yet the suggested landfall seems to have moved south again. What has actually changed to suggest that the likely target is back further south again? Is it just because it isn't tracking quite as much NW as it was before, or are there some real structural atmospheric changes that are now more likely to push it southwards?

its been pretty much on coarse, a little north that is why track moved from south of matagorda to north.

if it moves west or south of points track will be adjust slightly southward.

[xironman]

Not seeing much of a secondary wind maxima at all in the latest NOAA pass. Extrap at 944.5, it looks like Ike is closer to being reorganized.

[MBryant]

Maybe there is something I am missing here, but the actual plotted track seems to me to be continuously to the north of the earlier predictions, even when it was suggested that landfall was likely to be pretty close to Galveston. Yet the suggested landfall seems to have moved south again. What has actually changed to suggest that the likely target is back further south again? Is it just because it isn't tracking quite as much NW as it was before, or are there some real structural atmospheric changes that are now more likely to push it southwards?

There was or is a weakness in the ridge which was supposed to have disappeared a couple of days ago. This was supposed to be the point at which Ike headed more westerly than northwesterly. This weakness has been a pest for the models because it just doesn't go away..

This is the best this amateur can do with a quick synopsis. If the gurus wish to correct this perception, it won't hurt my feelings in the least.

[dixiebreeze]

Limited wind field to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/jsl-l.jpg

[xironman]

The west has been continuously bad with Ike for the past days. I guess there is more shear and dry air in that direction. Needless to say the east side is going to be where the action is when it finally gets somewhere.

[Rod Hagen]

its been pretty much on coarse, a little north that is why track moved from south of matagorda to north.

if it moves west or south of points track will be adjust slightly southward.

So, how long before we can expect to see the move to the west, which seems to me to get later and later, and needs to be more and more substantial every time I look at the navy plot, for example, if it is to strike south , rather than north, of Galveston?:



And if it doesn't actually make such a move soon, when can we start to assume, on the balance of probabilities, that it is unlikely to actually do so?

(Mmm. Edit. I see that the latest plot at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... 091106.gif , released in the few minutes since I started writing this, actually does reflect a significantly more westerly trend in line with the predictions. Ah they are clever fellas after all. Had me worried there for a bit! )

[Stormcenter]

Maybe there is something I am missing here, but the actual plotted track seems to me to be continuously to the north of the earlier predictions, even when it was suggested that landfall was likely to be pretty close to Galveston. Yet the suggested landfall seems to have moved south again. What has actually changed to suggest that the likely target is back further south again? Is it just because it isn't tracking quite as much NW as it was before, or are there some real structural atmospheric changes that are now more likely to push it southwards?

It's following the NHC's forecast points.

[mpic]

Good morning all! Woke up with the tune that contains the line,"just another day in Paradise" Geez! Got out on Tuesday and came to some friends in Montgomery County. Been doing preparations and will finish up today. Looks like we're in for a good one still.