ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Cape Verde]

I'm thinking Vermilion Bay to Lake Charles. That ridge is building in and Gustav will slip around.

All disclaimers apply. I'm no weatherman.

Lafayette is going to feel the punch regardless. I was there for Andrew in 92 and I've respected hurricanes ever since.

[BigB0882]

I see that is has headed slightly more WNW than NW in recent hours but that is right on track. NHC had predicted this and if it continues in the same heading it will landfall very near where NHC predicted, maybe just a bit further west but not by much. I think people are just being jumpy. As long as this is heading WNW to NW it is right on track. This doesn't mean it cant jog even more to the W but as of now, it appears to be on track. Just my 2 cents.

[cycloneye]

Another pressure drop from last VDM:

Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe strengthen a little, maybe a 105-110 knots at landfall.

[CoCo2]

We're having a lovely day here in Houston. Winds out of the NNE, generally light with occasional gusts, and low humidity. Pretty pleasant for August.

Just heard a NOLA area official (sorry, didn't catch his name) say they estimate 20-30% of the folks outside NOLA are staying put. People in places like Houma, Terrebonne Parish, Plaquemines Parish, etc. Also folks on the W. side of the lake. He speculated that those people didn't flood like the people in NOLA proper did during Katrina, so they think they're "safe". He and the TV interviewer person tried to urge them all to get out and evacuate as ordered.

I hope they're wrong with their estimations, but it was an official from the area so I kind of think they're not that far off.

I live in Plaquemines Parish. I promise you people left. There may be a few crazy people who ride out the storm on their oyster boats. But we don't wait until an official has to tell us to leave. We go. I don't know about the rest of the southern parishes. In Katrina a few really stupid people stayed and 4 people died. In fact, I was just reading the first couple of chapters in a new book about the South Plaquemines, formerly Port Sulphur High School, football coach and team. The coach and 7 others remained in the high school during Katrina. The first chapter is a chilling account about the surge and the water rising.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye slow strengthening seems to be occuring as the shear slowly eases just a notch.

Also still moving at a decent clip, maybe slight strengthen as Matt said but nothing too much it seems right now unless we see some changes now.

[SunnyThoughts]

New orleans tv stations streeming live for anyone interested
http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

[Brent]

Maybe strengthen a little, maybe a 105-110 knots at landfall.

Sounds reasonable to me. I don't expect it to bomb or fall apart.

[Ptarmigan]

I don't think Gustav has much time to strengthen because it is moving faster.

[HouTXmetro]

I don't think Gustav has much time to strengthen because it is moving faster.

Couldn't the faster movment also mean it's coming more under the influence of the Ridge which in turn could possibly force more Westward? Just asking.

[Hyperstorm]

Even though the pressure has dropped. It's not a dramatic drop at all. It's mainly a status quo. Yes, the storm does look slightly better organized on satellite based on a slight expansion of the outflow beginning on the S-SE, but only VERY slight.

The flight-level winds do not yet support Category 3, so the FL winds may strengthen over the next few hours, but only up to what it is being classified now - 115 mph. It will take MUCH more organization than what we're seeing now to get this up from 115 mph.

[Tom8]

Is it trying to turn east now ?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[KWT]

I don't think Gustav has much time to strengthen because it is moving faster.

Yep I think thats why only slight strengthening is likely from here on, I think we may get upto 105kts but we shall have to see...the other side of the coin is this doesn't have as much time to weaken from where it is so major hurricane is looking very likely.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Maybe strengthen a little, maybe a 105-110 knots at landfall.

That sounds about right to me too, and in addition that was Hurricane Opal's strength when it slammed into Pensacola.

An Opal-like storm hitting just west of New Orleans?? Could very well be a dire situation tomorrow...

[Wx_Warrior]

Im not concerned about models at this point, only NHC....They had to include some Tx cities under warnings because Gusie is getting close to landfall...I expect some Cat 1 conditions in SETX at the least...IMHO..Eye landfall will be louisiana.

[rtd2]

Is it trying to turn east now ?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I think thats the 320 heading vs. the 310 heading of prior recon

[HouTXmetro]

Is it trying to turn east now ?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

No, looks like it's trying to reorganize (MLC & LLC attempting to stack)and spit out the old eye. Anyone agree? It did this earlier. If this correct it's further west than we thought.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[BigB0882]

I don't see it heading East, is it just a slight bobble? Stair stepping?

rtd2, what do you mean when you say the 320 vs 310 heading by recon?

[Ptarmigan]

Couldn't the faster movment also mean it's coming more under the influence of the Ridge which in turn could possibly force more Westward? Just asking.

Who knows. Hurricanes can change at the last minute.

[rtd2]

I don't see it heading East, is it just a slight bobble? Stair stepping?

rtd2, what do you mean when you say the 320 vs 310 heading by recon?

1pm recon had it moving at 310 degrees- nw.......4pm recon has it at 320 degrees....Agree on the stair step