ATL: IKE Discussion

[rockyman]

View from my deck...Sunrise along Bienville River, I mean Bienville Blvd (Dauphin Island, Alabama):

This may be a stupid question, but is that rainfall or surge?

It's an excellent question It's totally surge...hasn't rained a drop. Here's are 3 water gauges along the Alabama coast (my street starts flooding at 3 feet):

[flounder_gig]

View from my deck...Sunrise along Bienville River, I mean Bienville Blvd (Dauphin Island, Alabama):

This may be a stupid question, but is that rainfall or surge?

its surge... swell is 15 to 20 feet.

we were surfing there yesterday. All the breaks are maxed out this morning.

[KWT]

Wow amazing surge rockyman, its impressive theres that sort of surge despite the center being in the central gulf, just shows how large Ike is!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon is now reporting concentric eyewalls

000
URNT12 KNHC 111129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/11:02:20Z
B. 25 deg 20 min N
087 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2647 m
D. 59 kt
E. 229 deg 4 nm
F. 312 deg 070 kt
G. 226 deg 036 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 12 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO8-42
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 11:12:40 Z

[xironman]

Your right it is not done yet, but note it is now open in the NW

[dwg71]

last two recon fixes 3 minutes north 8 west definately more west the past few hours

[Houstonia]

Harris county press conference at around 7:00 a.m., fe Ed Emmett and Bill White...

[Stormtrack03]

Recon is now reporting concentric eyewalls

000
URNT12 KNHC 111129
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 11/11:02:20Z
B. 25 deg 20 min N
087 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2647 m
D. 59 kt
E. 229 deg 4 nm
F. 312 deg 070 kt
G. 226 deg 036 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 12 C/ 3049 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO8-42
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2309A IKE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 11:12:40 Z

What is CO8-42 ???

Based on recon data, Ike doesn't appear to want to strengthen anytime soon. We will have to wait and see if this changes.

[KWT]

An eyewall at 8 miles and another outer eyewall at 42...it seems to love these double eyewalls, good job because its clearly not going to beocme too much stronger if it keeps doing this!

[dwg71]

4 hour motion 17 minutes N and 40 West or about 280 by best guess

[southerngale]

Mandatory Evacuation of Jefferson, Orange Counties

September 11, 2008 - 6:21AM
Scott Lawrence

A mandatory evacuation order has been issued for Jefferson and Orange Counties due to the expected impact of Hurricane Ike. A mandatory order hasn't been issued for Hardin County. All schools in Jefferson, Orange and Hardin County Counties are closed Thursday and Friday.

The National Weather Service advises that we can anticipate tropical storm force winds beginning during the day Friday and Category one or two hurricane force winds on Saturday.

Emergency management officials say to travel in a northerly direction. The evacuation routes from Hardin and Jefferson County are Hwy 69 and 96 North. The evacuation routes from Orange County are Hwy 105 North, Hwy 87 North, Hwy 62 North. The State is deploying resources to Jefferson County to help transport those who registered with 2-1-1 and those who aren't able to leave on their own to shelters to the north of this area.

Highway 87 could possibly be impassible and be closed for two to five days. This rising water could start as early as the evening hours of Friday, 9-12-08.



Anyone who chooses to stay in the southeast Texas area should have enough food, water and medication for up to five days. This precaution is echoed by Officials in all three counties. Citizens should be self sustainable with food, water and medical supplies for at least 5 days. Citizens should be prepared for the possibility of power outages that could last for an unknown amount of time.



Please monitor http://www.setinfo.org for up to date press releases. Additional information can be obtained by logging onto http://www.portarthurpd.com, http://www.cityofbeaumont.com, http://www.co.hardin.tx.us, http://www.co.orange.tx.us, and http://www.ci.port-neches.tx.us.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

An eyewall at 8 miles and another outer eyewall at 42...it seems to love these double eyewalls, good job because its clearly not going to beocme too much stronger if it keeps doing this!

I don't expect this to continue for to much longer. I expect the EWRC to be finished by this evening and the eye to be cleared out by later tonight. Then it will have about 24 hours for it to strengthen.

[Sabanic]

Yeah Sabanic, the problem is even if this landfalls a little bit down the coast, The Houston/Galveston area is still going to get hammered quite hard, just got to hope the eyewall doesn't hit, with such a big region of hurricane force winds even when the system is still over water they will probably feeling hurricane winds possibly even near Houston.

No doubt

[Lowpressure]

An eyewall at 8 miles and another outer eyewall at 42...it seems to love these double eyewalls, good job because its clearly not going to beocme too much stronger if it keeps doing this!

So instead of normal eyewall replacement cycles, we now have the consistant concentric eyewall cycle. Great, but you are correct in that it should intensity in check as long as this occurs- most unusual storm- structure wise.

[dwg71]

gfdl shifts south of nhc track by about 15 miles.

track shift is probably 40-50 miles south..

[KWT]

lowpressure, there was another storm that was like Ike and constantly had concentraic eyewalls but I can't remember for the life of me what system that was.

The problem is between the formation of the outer eyewall and the inner one taking over there is probably a 6hr period where Ike can ramp up its wind speed whilst keeping the huge wind field. I'd expect winds will therefore still eventually reach major strength, recon now showing peak winds into the high 90's so Ike does seem to be trying to strengthen a little.

[gboudx]

Latest from Lidner.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103096&p=1824194#p1824194

[rockyman]

View from my deck...Sunrise along Bienville River, I mean Bienville Blvd (Dauphin Island, Alabama):

This may be a stupid question, but is that rainfall or surge?

its surge... swell is 15 to 20 feet.

we were surfing there yesterday. All the breaks are maxed out this morning.

Which part of the beach? I saw some surfers on the West End just past the tall condos

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ike can keep those concentric eyewalls too. The latest NHC track puts the eye over my house!
Less strengthening is good for everyone.

[xironman]

lowpressure, there was another storm that was like Ike and constantly had concentraic eyewalls

Gilbert had them for a long time.