ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#881 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 12:40 pm

Frank2 wrote:It reminds me of one of many "classic El-Nino tropical storms" of the early and mid 1980's - they always had an exposed LLC due to westerly shear, which meant that just west of the center the weather was usually good enough for a picnic...

That's one sure sign of an early end to this season - the westerlies are already dropping south...

LOL


The Australians Updated today their ENSO forecast and they show Neutral conditions thru the end of the year.Go to the thread,"ENSO Updates" at Talking Tropics forum for all the details.
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#882 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:13 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Can anyone tell me when having the LLC displaced from the convection has been an impediment for upgrading a system?

Arlene? Alberto? Ana? Irene?

CONSISTENCY NHC, CONSISTENCY

I don't ask for anything more.


I want to clear something. Disagreeing with the NHC is a professional way doesn't mean to be bashing them. I even e-mailed them about their description of the organization of 93L and James Franklin commented that it was that the LLC was not well-defined that was impeding upgrading.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#883 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:14 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 251801
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE AND HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS...COASTAL
FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.

:rarrow: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GRAND TURK ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#884 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:24 pm

BREAKING NEWS=93L is not anymore:Upgraded.

invest_RENUMBER_al932008_al112008.ren

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#885 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:24 pm

NHC is calling it Kyle now on model guidance

WHXX01 KWBC 251820
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU SEP 25 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE KYLE (AL112008) 20080925 1800 UTC
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#886 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:24 pm

IMO they might have been a bit too hasty on that.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#887 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Sep 25, 2008 1:56 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Feeling quite poorly, but still may have a weak pulse...

Image



I knew it wasn't dead yet.
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#888 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:01 pm

No arguements...glad the NHC made the proper call.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L : Discussion

#889 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:10 pm

The graphic that we have at the top of the forum does not have invest 93L.It an automated graphic that updates as the ATCF make their updates.As the first advisory is released,it will show up as Kyle.
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#890 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:12 pm

Image

NRL has not changed yet!
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#891 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:24 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L : Discussion

#892 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:24 pm

NRL changed just now to Kyle.

11L.KYLE

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L : Discussion

#893 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:28 pm

For those who dont know,we change the title of thread to update an upgrade of a system,when the Advisory officially is released.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#894 Postby caribepr » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:34 pm

somethingfunny wrote:Side note; not to start up with those asinine "look how many posts this thread has!" posts but......44 pages for an INVEST :eek:


Well, of course now it's not an invest but is Kyle, but when an invest dumps up to 26 inches of rain, hangs around for many destructive days and has a death count, even before it reaches the mainland US, people do take notice of *what might happen next*.

Of course, if it does affect the mainland US....the page count will rise accordingly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L : Discussion

#895 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:42 pm

I have it passing 200-300 miles east of Cape Cod Saturday afternoon and over Nova Scotia Sunday morning moving N-NNE at 30-35 mph.
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#896 Postby El Nino » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:45 pm

caribepr wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Side note; not to start up with those asinine "look how many posts this thread has!" posts but......44 pages for an INVEST :eek:


Well, of course now it's not an invest but is Kyle, but when an invest dumps up to 26 inches of rain, hangs around for many destructive days and has a death count, even before it reaches the mainland US, people do take notice of *what might happen next*.

Of course, if it does affect the mainland US....the page count will rise accordingly.


I think that Fay had 100 pages as an Invest ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L : Discussion

#897 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:I have it passing 200-300 miles east of Cape Cod Saturday afternoon and over Nova Scotia Sunday morning moving N-NNE at 30-35 mph.


5 years to the day after Hurricane Juan...
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Re: ATL INVEST 93L: Discussion

#898 Postby caribepr » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:31 pm

El Nino wrote:
caribepr wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:Side note; not to start up with those asinine "look how many posts this thread has!" posts but......44 pages for an INVEST :eek:


Well, of course now it's not an invest but is Kyle, but when an invest dumps up to 26 inches of rain, hangs around for many destructive days and has a death count, even before it reaches the mainland US, people do take notice of *what might happen next*.

Of course, if it does affect the mainland US....the page count will rise accordingly.


I think that Fay had 100 pages as an Invest ...


Exacto
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

#899 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:36 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

#900 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image


that track is a disappointment to many in the NE
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