Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[gatorcane]

We will have to see if this westward (left shift) trend continues. This turn is going to create a nail-biting situation for SE Floridians I just have a feeling.

those latest models have 92L close enough to SE Florida to create some issues if it develops into something significant.

and another thing to note...92L is moving pretty much due West now and all of those models initialize it moving more WNW....so something is not right.

[Blown Away]

Do all the reliable models keep 92L E of SFL? People post model runs showing W into the EGOM, FL Straits, etc

[gatorcane]

Do all the reliable models keep 92L E of SFL? People post model runs showing W into the EGOM, FL Straits, etc

No NOGAPS through FL straits.

[rockyman]

The 6z NOGAPS is still showing the system entering the SE GOMEX:

Loop:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081406

144 hours:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... .namer.gif

[gatorcane]

when are the next set of model runs expected to be out?

[KWT]

Nogaps isn't really a great model to be using in terms of tracking IMO, the ones to watch are the GFS and the ECM and both turn this just before Florida.

Still with the tropics you just don't know!

[Bocadude85]

I see some of the models have shifted to the west a little... getting very close to Florida in the 12z run the threat to Florida has far from diminished.

[shaggy]

The euro model shows a very slow motion off the SE coast with the 10 day plot east of the SC/Ga border moving N. Its the tropics and anything can happen so I always take a wait and see approach.

[KWT]

Yeah put it another way, all models if they had a cone would have east Florida in the cone of uncertainty.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The euro model shows a very slow motion off the SE coast with the 10 day plot east of the SC/Ga border moving N. Its the tropics and anything can happen so I always take a wait and see approach.

The EURO is a horrible run..especially for the Carolinas. Hopefully something that extreme doesn't play out. A slow-moving, strengthening and enlarging storm just offshore would mean bad news for many places.

[ronjon]

Folks, one of the biggest factors that most seem to be discounting is land interaction. If this system hugs the coasts or basically runs over Hispanola and/or Cuba then you can forget about a right hand turn and a major hurricane - at least while it interacts with those islands. Then I think we have a weakened system heading for the GOM.

[shaggy]

The euro model shows a very slow motion off the SE coast with the 10 day plot east of the SC/Ga border moving N. Its the tropics and anything can happen so I always take a wait and see approach.

The EURO is a horrible run..especially for the Carolinas. Hopefully something that extreme doesn't play out. A slow-moving, strengthening and enlarging storm just offshore would mean bad news for many places.

I'm in eastern NC which is why it concerns me along with the HWRF and the GFDL. If those 3 models pan out then this thing better pull a Dennis like recurve. What concerns me about the HWRF is that it performed very well with the recurve of Bertha. It was the outlier for along tim with the recurve it showed and it did end up recurving so right now I am looking to see how those 3 models perform in the short term.

[KWT]

Well ronjon land won't matter a huge deal unless this deveklop a inner core which it won't have time to and besides looking at the track probably only going to hit northern DR and even then I reckon it will only be overland for about 4-6hrs looking at the models. After that they turn it north and if you note *thats* when the models strengthen this system into a powerful system.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this rapidly deepens, it will bolster the ridge, making a more westward path more likely.

This could very well be the Flloyd they initially worried about...one that traverses the coastline from Miami to Jax.

Or does the same a little further west, up the western side of the state.

I think this one will be bad. Could be really bad.

Best hope is that it stays more westerly to let the islands chew it up a bit. -and then hope they really destroy it, or any remnants could rapidly reintensify on the other side if it gets into the SE GOM.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's quite possible that the long range intensity is overestimated. I think the "major hurricane" talk may be false. Remember that an intensifying strong TS/Cat 1 can be damaging...

Bahamians should be closely monitoring it, as it will intensify over those islands.

[JPmia]

Folks, one of the biggest factors that most seem to be discounting is land interaction. If this system hugs the coasts or basically runs over Hispanola and/or Cuba then you can forget about a right hand turn and a major hurricane - at least while it interacts with those islands. Then I think we have a weakened system heading for the GOM.

I agree. The big islands can really disrupt it and unfortunately cause a lot of unnecessary deaths with mudslides and flooding.

[KWT]

It's quite possible that the long range intensity is overestimated. I think the "major hurricane" talk may be false. Remember that an intensifying strong TS/Cat 1 can be damaging...

Yep thats a good point to remember but I do think the GFDL forecasts aren't totally over the top given how warm the waters are down in that region.

[Ed Mahmoud]

***Double Post Alert- in main and model run 92L threads***

500 mb heights from AccuWX PPV 6Z GFDL outer grid suggest trough that starts turning this North is lifting out the last 24 hours before hour 126, so the turn North off Florida may not be the beginning of a fish storm (well, probably not a real fish parts of the Lesser and Greater Antilles and Bahamas to begin with). Per my amateur and unofficial interpretation of the 6Z GFDL

[shaggy]

It's quite possible that the long range intensity is overestimated. I think the "major hurricane" talk may be false. Remember that an intensifying strong TS/Cat 1 can be damaging...

Bahamians should be closely monitoring it, as it will intensify over those islands.

Its also quite possible that the short term intensity is underestimated and that it goes thru a rapid intensification phase and is a strong TS N of Puerto Rico and starts to pull N early. Its such a young system with so many things still unknown that its gonna be a nailbiting week next week from S Florida to the NC coast.

[Derek Ortt]

It's quite possible that the long range intensity is overestimated. I think the "major hurricane" talk may be false. Remember that an intensifying strong TS/Cat 1 can be damaging...

Bahamians should be closely monitoring it, as it will intensify over those islands.

the only way I see this not becoming a major is if this runs over Hispaniola