ATL: IKE Discussion

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RL3AO
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Re: Re:

#901 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:59 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Its clearly a major hurricane. Why are you guys surprised?


Well alot of the time the NHC will play it safe with a system not bothering any one when there's no recon to say for sure.



They might be playing it safe right now...
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#902 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:59 pm

But I think we can all safely put aside any questions about if Ike is going through a RI cycle!
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Re:

#903 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:00 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:WOW! I figured a special advisory, but 100 kt? I can't wait to see more T-numbers.

The intensity forecast may be VERY conservative...


No I think the intensity is spot on. Shear may keep this from strenghtening faster in 24 hrs or so.
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#904 Postby punkyg » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:01 pm

how high is the shear suppose to get before it reaches the bahamas and strengthens again?
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#905 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:03 pm

Image
Shear not too high now though.
Last edited by WmE on Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#906 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:03 pm

Looking at the steering currents and what Derek Ortt said earlier, a stronger storm could be a little bit more west and south.
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#907 Postby DanKellFla » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:05 pm

Could somebody give me a hint on how to interpret the scale of any of the photos?
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Re: Re:

#908 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:06 pm

WmE wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:WOW! I figured a special advisory, but 100 kt? I can't wait to see more T-numbers.

The intensity forecast may be VERY conservative...


No I think the intensity is spot on. Shear may keep this from strenghtening faster in 24 hrs or so.


Yes but thats another 24 hours it has to continue to go through its RI cycle if it can keep it up. At 5 the pressure was 982mb at 8 the pressure is 960mb thats a 24mb drop in 3 hours or 8mbs per hour you do the math! If it continues this RI cycle for even another 3 hours that would put the pressure at 936mb!
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#909 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:06 pm

May I?
:eek: :eek: :grrr:

Image
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Re: Re:

#910 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:07 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
WmE wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:WOW! I figured a special advisory, but 100 kt? I can't wait to see more T-numbers.

The intensity forecast may be VERY conservative...


No I think the intensity is spot on. Shear may keep this from strenghtening faster in 24 hrs or so.


Yes but thats another 24 hours it has to continue to go through its RI cycle if it can keep it up. At 5 the pressure was 982mb at 8 the pressure is 960mb thats a 24mb drop in 3 hours or 8mbs per hour you do the math! If it continues this RI cycle for even another 3 hours that would put the pressure at 936mb!


Don't use estimated pressures to determine pressure drop. Ike could be anywhere between 940 and 975mb right now.
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Re: Re:

#911 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:07 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
WmE wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:WOW! I figured a special advisory, but 100 kt? I can't wait to see more T-numbers.

The intensity forecast may be VERY conservative...


No I think the intensity is spot on. Shear may keep this from strenghtening faster in 24 hrs or so.


Yes but thats another 24 hours it has to continue to go through its RI cycle if it can keep it up. At 5 the pressure was 982mb at 8 the pressure is 960mb thats a 24mb drop in 3 hours or 8mbs per hour you do the math! If it continues this RI cycle for even another 3 hours that would put the pressure at 936mb!


Of course, the pressure numbers are merely estimated and not measured so it is hard to judge simply by that.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#912 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:08 pm

We needs some recon. When or if will it get there. This looks to be around 105-110 knots.
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Re: Re:

#913 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:10 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Don't use estimated pressures to determine pressure drop. Ike could be anywhere between 940 and 975mb right now.


Yes it could be lower or higher but right now with no recon and no recon until at least Friday all we have to go on are the estimated pressures. On a side note did any of the models forecast this RI cycle?
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#914 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:11 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#915 Postby WmE » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:11 pm

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Don't use estimated pressures to determine pressure drop. Ike could be anywhere between 940 and 975mb right now.


Yes it could be lower or higher but right now with no recon and no recon until at least Friday all we have to go on are the estimated pressures. On a side note did any of the models forecast this RI cycle?

No I don't think so.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#916 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:12 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


More strong,more west.
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#917 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:12 pm

03/2245 UTC 21.6N 53.1W T5.5/5.5 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

Basis for the 100 kt. It was issued an hour earlier than usual, and about 90 minutes ago so it might be stronger now.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#918 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:13 pm

Lets see what BEST TRACK has shortly.
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Re: ATL Hurricane IKE - Discussion

#919 Postby El Nino » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:15 pm

HOLY CRAP ! This reminds minds Katrina/Wilma/Dean/Felix times ... I couldn't believe it was so strong. No, I agree. Sorry for my previous message.
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#920 Postby coreyl » Wed Sep 03, 2008 7:15 pm

I am confused, I thought a stronger storm means more north.
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