ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Wxman57, recon suggesting this has wobbled prehaps closer to 320-325 over the last hour, long term motion probably isn't that of course but either recon didnt quite nail the center (in which case its stronger then estimated...) or its wobbled abot 10-15 degrees to the north of where it was recently...

We need to see whether the next center fix shows it back on its previous motion.

Not only that but Sat imagery shows the movement as well.

[Stormcenter]

Not too far from ground zero now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Looks like he following the NHC's forecast track.

[johngaltfla]

I'm sick of the feeder bands and could not imagine driving in this mess unless desperate.

What a mess. And I'm fearful as it does look like it is getting its act together again...

[ConvergenceZone]

See, my greatest fear is coming true. I really wished it would have peaked 12-13 hours ago. Couple of points that prove this might be going into an RI phase:

10 C temperature differential between eye and eyewall.
2 mb drop in 30 mins
3 mb drop in the last hour
Closing off of the eyewall

I don't know how strong it will get, but it for sure WONT weaken from this point on.

There are "Cooler" (if want to call it that) waters ahead so I would not expect much more strengthening but who knows with these
things.

Yep, you never want to say never with tropical systems....If someone would have said on this forum that they thought Fay would strengthen over Florida, they would have been stoned to death . Sometimes these systems do what's completely against climatology.... You just never know.

[KWT]

WxGuy1, I think that shear has eased off a fait aount given the way the NE quadrant has beefed up a touch, its still there but not quite as bad.

Despite that I agree I think steady strengthening looking the best option, still enough to shave another 10mbs before landfall even if it does take a little more modest strengthening.

[Normandy]

I never said will, i said "might." Regardless, the data suggests its deepening fast...there really is no argument regarding that. Recon shows this.

[Dean4Storms]

The heat content does not show up so deep because the waters out there are not so deep, I know I go out there on long fishing trips all the time. The water out there begins to shallow up very quickly.

[KWT]

Band heading into N.O, the first of the rains should start there in the next 20-30 mins. The big band about to enter the Panhandle and also far southern tip of LA as well.

[superfly]

VERY large wind field in N quad.

233230 2704N 08731W 7534 02120 9583 +179 +179 103095 102 093 010 00
233300 2706N 08731W 7552 02121 9611 +172 +172 098104 108 097 015 00
233330 2708N 08731W 7581 02103 9643 +162 +162 095106 108 096 013 00
233400 2709N 08730W 7611 02094 9668 +163 +163 096108 109 091 013 00
233430 2711N 08730W 7635 02083 9687 +167 +167 096104 105 091 020 00
233500 2713N 08729W 7642 02094 9704 +168 +167 101102 103 088 024 03
233530 2714N 08729W 7620 02132 9725 +161 +161 103106 107 083 023 00
233600 2716N 08728W 7641 02123 9741 +158 +158 099103 105 083 017 00
233630 2718N 08728W 7680 02096 9757 +163 +163 100098 099 079 006 00
233700 2720N 08728W 7685 02102 9772 +162 +162 102098 098 075 002 00
233730 2722N 08727W 7693 02103 9783 +164 +164 103095 097 073 004 00
233800 2723N 08727W 7696 02110 9793 +164 +164 102093 094 073 003 00
233830 2725N 08726W 7696 02122 9808 +161 +161 100094 095 071 004 03
233900 2727N 08726W 7713 02111 9819 +160 +160 100092 094 069 002 00
233930 2729N 08725W 7740 02088 9828 +159 +159 101091 092 067 006 00
234000 2731N 08725W 7743 02089 9839 +156 +156 101091 091 069 003 03
234030 2732N 08725W 7739 02103 9849 +155 +155 102088 090 066 005 03

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAROSE...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MYRTLE GROVE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLE
CHASSE...MOVING WEST AT 34 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF MYRTLE GROVE BY 700 PM CDT...
LAFITTE...BARATARIA AND JEAN LAFITTE BY 715 PM CDT...
LAROSE BY 745 PM CDT...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do not think there is 20 knots of shear over this system right now; I believe the shear is down to around 10-12 knots, also the cyclone is moving north-northwestard with it. It has also developed a nice southern outflow channel...I expect 110 knots within 8 hours and pressures down to around 944-946 millibars.

[tolakram]

0000Z

[tigergirl]

I do not think there is 20 knots of shear over this system right now; I believe the shear is down to around 10-12 knots, also the cyclone is moving north-northwestard with it. It has also developed a nice southern outflow channel...I expect 110 knots within 8 hours and pressures down to around 944-946 millibars.

First tornado warning for my area!

[TCmet]

Damage in Cuba:

Link: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVWj ... wD92THN402

Thanks for the link to the story re: Cuba Hurakan. I was stunned by the reported windspeeds.

Officials measured gusts of 212 mph (340 kph) in the western town of Paso Real del San Diego — a new national record for maximum wind speed in a country often hit by major hurricanes, said Miguel Angel Hernandez of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Yikes!

Does anyone have handy the highest reported windspeeds for US Landfalling hurricanes? Just curious. Glad Louisiana will be spared the wrath Cuba faced. And yet Gustav may still be a disastrous event for NOLA and other areas of Louisiana. Praying for all in Gustav's path.

If verified, that's definitely enough to support a post-season upgrade to category 5.

[CronkPSU]

0000Z

let's all pray that last part was just a wobble or slight restructuring...extrapolated would be worst case scenario for NO

[Lowpressure]

I do not think there is 20 knots of shear over this system right now; I believe the shear is down to around 10-12 knots, also the cyclone is moving north-northwestard with it. It has also developed a nice southern outflow channel...I expect 110 knots within 8 hours and pressures down to around 944-946 millibars.

Looks like 951 already, may go a bit lower than your estimate 939-941. Agree with your wind estimate after 8 hours.

[WmE]

Damage in Cuba:

Link: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVWj ... wD92THN402

Thanks for the link to the story re: Cuba Hurakan. I was stunned by the reported windspeeds.

Officials measured gusts of 212 mph (340 kph) in the western town of Paso Real del San Diego — a new national record for maximum wind speed in a country often hit by major hurricanes, said Miguel Angel Hernandez of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Yikes!

Does anyone have handy the highest reported windspeeds for US Landfalling hurricanes? Just curious. Glad Louisiana will be spared the wrath Cuba faced. And yet Gustav may still be a disastrous event for NOLA and other areas of Louisiana. Praying for all in Gustav's path.

If verified, that's definitely enough to support a post-season upgrade to category 5.

But then again. 941 mb are very high for a Cat 5.

[Tom8]

[Ivanhater]

Radar showing the northern wobble

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

[Dean4Storms]

I'd like to know the altitude of that reading, there are some 2000ft Mtns. in the area Gustav went through in Cuba.