ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Enzo Aquarius]

Northern main bands are starting to appear on New Orleans radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[tolakram]

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Gustav has slowed a bit to down 17 mph according to 7:00PM advisory. Also, it is getting better looking. Sometimes sheer can help hurricanes strengthen. Hurricane Allen comes to mind.

[Ptarmigan]

But then again. 941 mb are very high for a Cat 5.

Central pressure isn't everything. It also depends on the ambient pressure as well. 941 millibars can support a Category 5 hurricane if the ambient pressure is relatively high.

[CronkPSU]

i remember the discussion saying it should slow down some before landfall...with the current strengthening phase(at least what looks to be) is that better or worse for new orleans

[Cape Verde]

0000Z

That doesn't show much of a NW curverture.

[HouTXmetro]

How is 17mph slowing down? How fast was he going before?

[BlackNGoldRules]

How is 17mph slowing down? How fast was he going before?

18mph

[KWT]

Wrapping up very nicely, motion certainly does seem to have lifted a little more to the north then it was previously, current motion if it were to continue would have a landfall pretty much bang on N.O

I think the track will shift back a touch more to the west but will end up a little to the east of the NHC offical track.

Wobbles at this stage make a huge difference.

[Derek Ortt]

all of the optimism of the day has been shattered this evening . Nothing else needs to be said

[Enzo Aquarius]

i remember the discussion saying it should slow down some before landfall...with the current strengthening phase(at least what looks to be) is that better or worse for new orleans

Worse, more rainful would result in worse flooding conditions and constant heavy winds would cause more damage. I can't recall, but didn't Katrina stall a tad over southern Louisiana?

[Stormavoider]

It seems that the "dry air slot" has isolated the center portion of this storm effectively making it a smaller storm. This may make it more capable of quick organization.

[Stormcenter]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAROSE...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MYRTLE GROVE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLE
CHASSE...MOVING WEST AT 34 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF MYRTLE GROVE BY 700 PM CDT...
LAFITTE...BARATARIA AND JEAN LAFITTE BY 715 PM CDT...
LAROSE BY 745 PM CDT...

And it begins.

[Windy]

all of the optimism of the day has been shattered this evening . Nothing else needs to be said

When's your next forecast update, Derek? A lot of people want to know what you're thinking right now.

[JtSmarts]

Did anyone see that band that just hit where Mike Bettis is? Pretty strong winds that far out.

[masaji79]

Gustav sure seem to be wrapping tightly, and quickly too. Look like a different storm from this morning.

[KWT]

all of the optimism of the day has been shattered this evening . Nothing else needs to be said

That bad is it?

Anyway eye will probably start to clear out again pretty soon looking at the IR.

Thhings are going to be going downhill very soon for the gulf coast in general...

[inda_iwall]

Hey IvanHater,
You still holed up in your house, it hasnt even drizzled yet ?
Not to get on you, but you realize we are not going to get hit by anything more than we do during a good cold front right?
Relax, dont get too worked up, I just walked the dogs around the neighborhood, then I am headed out to dinner on the beach to feel mother nature. Being a weather buff you really should go check it out.

[shawn67]

all of the optimism of the day has been shattered this evening . Nothing else needs to be said

Res ipsa loquitur, Derek, res ipsa loquitur .

[Enzo Aquarius]

That isolated band involved with the Tornado Warning is really pouring rain down on the New Orleans area. The 1-hour total just due to this is impressive:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no